Saturday racing analysis | Is there a glimmer of hope for L'Eau Du Sud v Sir Gino in the Arkle?

Here we are, old Super Saturday day at Newbury, the Kingmaker at Warwick, good racing in its own right, but also some of the last big clues we’ll get pre-Cheltenham. With 31 days to go to the Festival, final preparations are being made now.

Which immediately brings us to the big name that didn’t run, Sir Gino, once-raced over fences and the hot, generally 4/6, favourite for the My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Trophy on day one at the Cheltenham Festival.

A small wound to the inside of his near hind leg prevented him from running in the Grade 2 William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Game Spirit Chase on Saturday, a race won by Master Chewy, and while it’s only a small untimely setback, time is running out to get a prep run into him before the Arkle.

He could run over 2m4f in the Pendil at Kempton on February 22 (looks unlikely), or he could go to Bangor for a new two-mile novice chase on February 26 (also looks unlikely), so unless Nicky Henderson is absolutely desperate to get a run into him he’s probably going to go to the Arkle with one steeplechase and an obligatory racecourse gallop under his belt.

Is that a concern? Let’s be honest – not really. Both Well Chief and Western Warhorse won the Arkle with just one chasing start on their profile and Sir Gino is one of the brightest British novice chasing talents in many a year. Indeed, he recorded a higher Timeform rating on his chasing debut than illustrious stablemates Simonsig, Sprinter Sacre, Altior and Jonbon.

The likelihood is he will be a strong favourite for the Arkle whether he runs again over fences or not, but if his rivals need a glimmer of encouragement – and judging by what he did at Kempton they need all the glimmers they can get – there is the fact that Sir Gino has jumped only 12 fences in a race in his life.

I’m not saying such inexperience makes a mistake more likely, he looked pretty good in the jumping department after all, but we are talking glimmers here on a day Dan Skelton’s L’Eau Du Sud put in a fine display of jumping during his own Arkle prep.

Now, if you ever want to demonstrate what fences can do for a horse just reach for the video replay of the 2025 Grade 2 Unibet Kingmaker Novices’ Chase at Warwick.

Here we have the grey, L’Eau Du Sud, running in the yellow silks of the late John Hales. A 138-rated hurdler, he was good over the smaller obstacles but they didn’t maximise his potential as a racehorse.

Rated 152 over fences going into the Kingmaker, after three runs in novice steeplechases, he’s clearly a much better chaser than he was a hurdler and watching how he dealt with the five frantic fences down the Warwick back straight explains why.

He devoured the obstacles, attacking them with relish, taking lengths out of his only serious rival, Paul Nicholls’ Rubaud, a 149-rated hurdler who fell on his only previous chasing start when he tried to keep up with Sir Gino and Ballyburn at Kempton.

There isn’t any evidence as yet that Rubaud is as good over fences as he is over hurdles – and he didn’t have the athleticism that L’Eau Du Sud did over Warwick’s famous five - but he did reduce a five-length deficit to just a length in the straight, hinting he might have his own future in this sphere.

L’Eau Du Sud idled a bit, for sure, perhaps the 5lb penalty began to take its toll, too. I’d say it's probably more likely that Rubaud’s two-mile hurdling speed was in evidence once the jumping was out of the way.

There might be a decent steeplechase prize for Rubaud in the future considering that weapon and I wouldn’t be too critical of L’Eau Du Sud for not beating him further despite looking likely to do so on the turn for home.

The 1/5 chance had the race in the bag at the third last after an exhibition of jumping and in races where jumping will be a key factor – like the Arkle – he’s going to be a player.

He doesn’t have the class of Sir Gino and the odds tell you that. Sir Gino is 4/6, L’Eau Du Sud is 10/1. There is the small matter of Irish Arkle winner Majborough at 15/8, as well.

But there is a slight concern over Majborough’s novicey jumping at Leopardstown; Sir Gino has only jumped 12 fences.

Skelton says he goes to the Arkle ‘full of hope’ for L’Eau Du Sud. You can certainly see why. His jumping at least gives him a glimmer of a chance and against horses like Sir Gino sometimes that’s all you can ask for.

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