With the entries through for the Ryanair Chase Andrew Asquith, John Ingles and Ben Linfoot answer four key questions.
Given the Ryanair Chase is Fact To File’s only entry is he entitled to be 2/1 favourite for the race antepost?
Andrew Asquith: Ante-post markets, even for the Cheltenham Festival, are nothing like they used to be, but yes he deserves to be favourite in my opinion. His only defeat at the Cheltenham Festival came at the hands of crack bumper performer A Dream To Share in 2023 and, while the Brown Advisory he won as a novice wasn’t a strong renewal, his win in this race last season was a top-class effort. Fact To File ran to a similar level when runner-up to Gaelic Warrior in the John Durkan on his return and was possibly feeling the effects of that race when below par in the King George last time. Willie Mullins will have him fit and ready to rumble for Cheltenham, however, and there’s no doubt he’ll arrive with leading claims.
Ben Linfoot: I can see why he’s so short. Really impressive in the race last year, it’s his only target and he’s trained by Willie Mullins! Of course the bookies won’t be handing out any gifts. I thought he ran flat in the King George, probably because of a harder than ideal race in the John Durkan, but I expect he’ll turn up on the third day of the Festival in tip-top shape in his bid to retain his crown.
John Ingles: At least with this race being his only entry, there’s no guesswork needed as to which race he’ll turn up in which is often the case for Ryanair candidates. If you forgive his last run in the King George, which I think is fairly easy to do, and bear in mind how good he has been at the last two Festivals, notably in last year’s Ryanair where he produced a flawless performance, then he’s very much entitled to be favourite, though 2/1 does seem a bit skinny given how little there was between him and potential rival Gaelic Warrior in the John Durkan.
Could owner JP McManus have more strings to his Ryanair bow with the likes of Jonbon, Majborough and Jagwar?
JI: I’m not sure about Majborough for this race while Jagwar has a lot of improvement to find outside of handicaps, but it’s surely worth Jonbon having a crack at the Ryanair in a bid to gain a first Festival win even if his owner does have Fact To File too. Il Etait Temps has twice exposed Jonbon’s limitations over two miles in the last twelve months whereas Jonbon’s performance when beating Protektorat over further in the Melling Chase last spring was almost on a par with what Fact To File achieved at the Festival. He looks well worth returning to a longer trip.
BL: There could be a few different coloured caps atop the green and gold horses in this race couldn’t there? I imagine Jagwar will go out in trip for the Ultima, but both Jonbon and Majborough could end up here. Surely Jonbon can’t win the Champion Chase having been spanked by both L’Eau Du Sud and Il Etait Temps this season and he deserves a crack at a longer race at the Festival. And Majborough’s jumping has let him down over two so far, so perhaps he’ll go out in trip as well.
AA: Jonbon definitely looks in need of further nowadays, but he isn’t getting any younger, and still has a bit to find with the very best, even though it’s impossible to argue with his consistency. Majborough was a leading novice last season, but his jumping continues to be a problem. That is a big concern, but a step up in trip may help that department of his game. There’s no doubting he has plenty of ability, and I’d need to see more than what I already have from him if he were to be on my radar, especially as he was way too free last time, too. Jagwar was a revelation in handicaps last season, his success in the Plate the highlight, and he shaped well on his return in the December Gold Cup recently. Given the rate of knots he improved at last season, you wouldn’t rule out him developing into a Ryanair contender, but he still has a long way to go if that were to transpire.
Of the horses who also have Gold Cup entries, like Gaelic Warrior, Jango Baie, Banbridge and Heart Wood, who do you think is most likely to turn up in the Ryanair?
BL: I think the Ryanair is the perfect race for Gaelic Warrior. Even though he’s proven over three miles we all know the 3m2f and a bit around Cheltenham in a Gold Cup is a different kettle of fish and I’m not sure he’s that horse. And look at what he did in the John Durkan when beating Fact To File himself, that highlights his Ryanair credentials in a big way. 8/1 could be very big. Galopin Des Champs is probably key to him. If he wins the Irish Gold Cup and is clear Closutton number one for the Cheltenham Gold Cup then I can see Gaelic Warrior being shuffled down the Ryanair route to take on Fact To File once again.
AA: Gaelic Warrior is a hard one to weigh up given how versatile he is trip wise, while Willie Mullins had no problem running him and Fact To File against each other in the King George. That was the second start in a row he got the better of his stablemate, and you would have to question if he’d be fully effective at the Gold Cup trip given the speed he possesses. I think it’s plausible he could turn up in the Ryanair and he definitely wouldn’t be an 8/1 chance if he did. Of the others you would imagine Heart Wood will be back for another go. He wasn’t in the same league at Fact To File last season.
JI: The going on the day is likely to go a long way to deciding running plans for all of these, but Jango Baie’s run in the King George has made a Gold Cup bid for him that much more likely. I’m not sure Gaelic Warrior quite has the stamina for a Gold Cup as the emphasis was on speed when he beat Grey Dawning in the Bowl at Aintree last year. Connections might want a second crack at a Gold Cup with Banbridge as he was beaten before stamina became an issue in last year’s race, though he certainly wouldn’t want it soft and ran no race either in the Ryanair the year before. Heart Wood was no match for Fact To File last year but he’d be another with stamina to prove if avoiding him by taking the Gold Cup option.
Is there any horse we haven’t mentioned who might come on the radar for this race in the build-up to the Festival?
JI: Novice Romeo Coolio would be the joker in the pack but he’s right there in the betting alongside some of those mentioned above. It’s not as if Gordon Elliott has any other leading contenders for the race and Romeo Coolio looked as though he’d very much appreciate a return to further than two miles when keeping his unbeaten record over fences at Leopardstown last time. There’s no suitable two and a half mile novice option for him at the Festival any longer so you can see why they’ve made the entry and he could enter calculations.
BL: I’m a big fan of Gidleigh Park and think there’s more to come from him. He beat Jango Baie and Caldwell Potter last season and ran well behind the former at Ascot on his return when he might’ve needed it. He could run in the Clarence House and go down the Champion Chase route, but he looks a better horse over the intermediate trip and if he is pointed at the Ryanair he becomes a contender.
AA: I wouldn’t give up hope of Kalif du Berlais just yet. He was disappointing on his return in the Haldon Gold Cup, but he started favourite that day and, while he clearly wasn’t right on the day, he probably wants further now anyway. He’s been declared for the Silviniaco Conti Chase over two and a half miles at Kempton on Saturday and a good performance there would entitle him to take his chance in a Ryanair. He’s a well-made gelding who we are yet to see the best of and is also bred to stay well.
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