We take a look at Ryan Moore's rides at Lingfield on Wednesday as the top jockey makes his long awaited return to action.
Moore has been out of action since suffering a stress fracture of the right femur in August but returns to action with five booked rides for four different trainers....
11:30 - Sovereign Wealth, George Boughey
Two-year-old with three third-place finishes in maidens/novices. Returned to form back down in trip when second of 8 in 7f Chelmsford nursery (9/2), wearing blinkers for first time. Likely has even more ability to reveal but it remains to be seen whether he can be relied upon to produce it.
12:00 - Lazzar, Richard Hughes
Fair gelding. Eighth of 9 in handicap (2/1) at Wolverhampton (6.1f) 60 days ago, possibly amiss. Pretty reliable until then so expected to bounce back minus cheekpieces.
13:30 Evening Fades, William Haggas
Foaled March 2. Ulysses filly. Half-sister to several winners, including very smart 7f/1m winner Karar and smart 1m/8.3f winner Lights On. Dam 1m-10.5f winner. Interesting newcomer.
14:00 Morrophore, John and Thady Gosden
Stepped up on her reappearance when winning 6-runner handicap at Ascot (1¼m) in May, hitting the front around a furlong out and storming clear. Decidedly better than her fourth-place finish would suggest at Newmarket (10f) on return in October and she remains one to be interested in back on AW.
14:30 Invited, George Boughey
Won over C&D in August but backward step when seventh of 9 in handicap at Kempton (11/1) 14 days ago wearing first-time tongue strap, taking strong hold before weakening. Return to 7f therefore probably a good move.
Summary
Of Moore's quintet, only Morrophore gets the nod in the Timeform Verdict on the racecard but Sovereign Wealth has been put in as favourite in the betting forecast. Sovereign Wealth is one of two rides Moore has for Boughey and their strike rate isn't quite what you might expect with eight winners from 54 rides (27 finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th) resulting in a 15% strike rate and a level stakes loss.
Moore and Hughes have very similar figures together (12 winners from 82 at 15% with 32 'placed') but the jockey has enjoyed far more fortune for Haggas with the pair enjoying a 27% strike rate (113 winners from 426) while the trainer has a respectable 20% course strike rate although that falls to 14% for his juveniles alone; more than likely the market will guide.
A good deal more is known about Morrophore than Evening Fades and it will come as no surprise that Moore operates at a shade above a one in five strike rate for the Clarehaven Stables team who, themselves, have a 28% course strike rate with runners aged four and up.
Lies, damned lies and statistics perhaps but they do suggest Morrophore is Moore's best chance of a comeback winner; that is, unless the market suggests to the contrary.
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