BetVictor Gold Cup – 2.25 Cheltenham – Saturday 18th November
One of the strongest trends associated with this race is the one related to official ratings and the desired bracket is between 136 and 150. This accounts for all but two of the last ten winners, with Al Ferof and last year’s winner Taquin Du Seuil having won off a mark of 159 and 156 respectively. In terms of this year’s field it eliminates the top horse Kylemore Lough as well as the bottom four (from Guitar Pete down to Lake Takapuna).
When we consider the age of recent winners it is clear that seven-year-olds come out on top, having been successful in six of the last ten renewals. There are five such representatives this time around, namely Days Of Heaven, Tully East, Theinval, Aqua Dude and Guitar Pete.
Strong form on their most recent start is something that has served horses well in this race in the past. Six of the last ten winners had finished no worse than fourth on their last start, something that all but five of this year’s field have in common. However, this stat has to be taken with a pinch of salt as many of these horses will be making their seasonal debuts on Saturday so recent form may be as far back as March or April.
The final factor worthy of mention is the betting and historically this is not a race in which it is worth taking a punt on one at a big price. In fact, seven of the last ten winners were sent off at single figure SPs with Little Josh (20/1) the biggest priced winner in the last decade.
Taking all things into account, all of our contenders miss at least one of the trends but the one who appeals most is ROMAIN DE SENAM. Paul Nicholls’ five-year-old was one of the leading fancies for the Novices’ Handicap Chase on the first day of the Cheltenham Festival last season but missed the cut.
He ran well in competitive 2m chases in the Spring but seems to have turned a corner since his return, winning at Chepstow in October before following up at Stratford a week later. Only one five-year-old has won this prize in recent years but it is worth noting that he was also trained by Paul Nicholls and with the possibility of further improvement to come from this gelding, he looks to have a leading chance.
Just missing out on the top spot is Foxtail Hill who showed a fine attitude to hold off the challenge of Le Prezien over 2m here in October. The eight-year-old jumped boldly out in front and having looked as though he would be overtaken jumping the last, he rallied gamely to maintain his advantage.
He has gone up 7lb for that effort but the 3lb claim of Jamie Bargary will offset that to a degree. The step back up in trip shouldn’t hold any fears for him and he could take some pegging back if allowed his own way out in front.
SELECTION:
