Lydia Hislop Road To Cheltenham Christmas Part One

Welcome back to the Road after what I hope was a lovely Christmas for you all. Much has happened already since the previous edition and we’re barely halfway through this frenetic period of racing.

There will be two updates this week, with this initial one concentrating on what the contenders for the six championship races achieved last week and up to including Wednesday of this week.

Another update follows on Saturday, completing their exploits and adding those of the novice chasers and hurdlers for this entire period.

Capeesh? Cushty.

Timico Gold Cup

At first glance, Might Bite’s King George VI Chase victory appeared a shade underwhelming. Certainly, many observers have concluded this to be the case, in particular arguing after Sizing John’s defeat in the What-Was-The-Lexus two days later – full discussion of which to follow in the next Road on Saturday – that a length defeat of Double Shuffle hardly merits being 4/1 (at best) favourite for the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup. I take a different view.

My immediate post-race feeling on Racing UK was that Might Bite had turned the screw during the second circuit, breaking the poor-jumping Bristol De Mai with a scope of leap and power of gallop with which solely the winner was entirely comfortable.

Might Bite then seemed to idle entering the straight – as we know he can and jockey Nico de Boinville confirmed afterwards – and that allowed Double Shuffle, running the race of his life however you splice it, and the well-positioned Tea For Two to make late inroads, albeit both were being held by an undiminishing margin come the line itself.

Those dealing in pounds and ounces are correct in saying it’s impossible to put ‘a big figure’ on this performance. This was neither an outstanding King George to the eye nor on the numbers. Even sectionals initially seem to suggest Might Bite’s effort was superior to Black Corton’s Kauto Star yet broadly comparable to that of 137-rated Hell’s Kitchen, who’d won the novices’ limited handicap chase earlier in the day.

From the start to the ninth fence, the leaders in the King George clocked 2m46s whereas the leaders over the same course-and-distance in the earlier Grade One Kauto Star Novices’ Chase covered the same ground in 2m44s. So Black Corton’s race was quicker on the first circuit but ended up being almost three seconds slower overall.

From the ninth fence to the winning post, the King George clocked 3m20s with Might Bite carrying 11-10, the Kauto Star clocked 3m 25 with Black Corton carrying 11-07 and the novices’ limited handicap clocked 3m20s with Hell’s Kitchen carrying 11-08.

However, this doesn’t reveal where the damage was done in the King George. If you clock from the all-weather crossing on the second circuit (shortly after which Might Bite starts to take on Bristol De Mai and the two pull some way clear) to the third last in the King George, you get a time of 2m20s.1. In the Kauto Star, it’s 2m24s.5 and in the novices’ limited handicap chase it’s 2m20.9 (these horses having previously raced for about three-and-a-half furlongs less than the other two). Then from the third last to the line it’s respectively: 40.6, 40.6 and 37.8.

To simplify, they went too slow and then too fast in the King George before Might Bite (probably – I think he did) idled in the straight. In the Kauto Star, they went too fast too early. In the novices’ limited handicap, rider Barry Geraghty used Hell’s Kitchen’s energy more uniformly than either of the other two winners. While he’s nonetheless a great deal better than a 137 horse – more on him and Black Corton in the novices’ chase section on Saturday – it follows that Might Bite is also capable of better than his incoming rating of 165. Perhaps a lot better.

Accordingly, I wonder whether restraining Might Bite in an attempt to make him a more conventional racehorse accounts for the way in which he won his King George. Both his jockey and trainer Nicky Henderson referred to this thinking afterwards.

“It was fast and furious to the first,” de Boinville said. “He absolutely winged that and I just had to take him back a bit because I didn’t want him to be doing too much too soon. It was the plan, from the word go, to let Bristol De Mai go on and we were just going to sit off him slightly and see how we went.

“But turning up the side [of the track, after the all-weather crossing] he just kept jumping me there and almost jumping me in front of Bristol De Mai and I was happy to let him do it. There was no point pegging him back and I didn’t want to disappoint him, so we just let him find his stride and keep in that rhythm.”

Asked about the fences over which he locked horns with Bristol De Mai, de Boinville said: “It wasn’t attritional because I thought we were doing it quite easily.” He rightly stressed that Might Bite’s jumps in the home straight were “not those of a tired horse” and that his mount was "idling slightly – he can do that”.

Henderson said: “We didn’t really plan to attack him [Bristol De Mai] as early as we did but, as Nico said, he’s jumping, he’s enjoying himself, so there’s no point saying: woah, stop… And he was winning the jumping stakes… If you go jumping with Might Bite, you’ve got to be brave and you’ve got to be good… He’s got so much scope.

“Our idea, after what happened here last year and even what happened at Cheltenham, was to almost try and ride him so he does not know that it’s the last fence… That’s the way we’re looking at him, mentally…to try to iron out those two peculiar incidents last year.

“I didn’t want him to open up by ten lengths going to the last because that flummoxes him sometimes.”

It’s possible this intent on orthodoxy – in evidence both at Sandown and at Kempton this term – is the key to unlocking the meaning of Might Bite’s performance. Last season, his outrageous talent was on untrammelled show in the Kauto Star (albeit to blame horse rather than jockey for his final-fence fall wouldn’t even be accepted by the latter, Daryl Jacob, himself) and, of course, in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham, when the detour to the Guinness Village after the last was all his own idea.

Conceivably, as touched on in this column after his seasonal debut, this policy could render him less brilliant and therefore possibly – but not necessarily – more vulnerable. Possibly, if you take the King George margins literally. Not necessarily, if you acknowledge that much of his exuberance remains and that he might well have found more had Double Shuffle reached his quarters sooner. (And I think he would have found more, for what it’s worth.)

Connections’ attempts to manage Might Bite are not only designed to get him to Cheltenham at peak professionalism but also to enable him to extend his career at the top. De Boinville certainly thinks Might Bite has the potential for longevity: “He’s never doing too much. He eases down once he’s done enough.”

When I asked Henderson to compare Might Bite with the better horses he has trained at this stage of development, a roll call topped by Sprinter Sacre but also including Long Run, he said: “He’s still youthful and has got little bits to learn still but he’s going the right way, growing up all the time. He’s going to have to grow up again come March but it’s there, it’s possible.”

De Boinville is in absolutely no doubt that Might Bite will stay – and I tend to agree with him. Henderson doesn’t see the point of going to the Cotswold Chase for a dress rehearsal of this requirement. He’d be quite happy going straight to the Gold Cup – obviously – but didn’t dismiss the Denman Chase at Newbury as a potential stepping-stone.

I think Might Bite is the rightful favourite for the Gold Cup. The 6/1 available straight after the King George but before Sizing John flopped at Leopardstown (not to mention Yorkhill, of which more on Saturday) was a perfectly fair – if not mildly generous – price.

It’s entirely feasible that Double Shuffle delivered a career best in second; any debate focuses on the scale of that improvement. His standout form of last season was over this course and distance and his early form this term suggested he would improve again when returned to a more suitable staying trip.

He left Might Bite and Bristol De Mai alone to duel on the second circuit but still seemed to be travelling well until getting outpaced after the fourth last; he then stayed on strongly, despite lacking fluency at the penultimate flight.

Tea For Two finished two lengths adrift of him, is rated 164, definitely handles the track having won one of his two Grade Ones there and was ridden to advantage by Lizzie Kelly by sitting off the pace (admittedly perhaps enforcedly) in its hottest section.

If Tea For Two’s effort was indeed optimised, there might have been as much as a stone’s improvement in Double Shuffle although conservatism is likely to see him settled on less.

The Grade One Bowl at Aintree – which Tea For Two won last term – appeals as both horses’ ideal target given a flat track appears to suit so well. Yet with Cheltenham falling a comfortable four weeks beforehand, both trainers – Tom George and Nick Williams respectively – might well be tempted to give the Gold Cup a whirl. In George’s case in particular, he would be well justified.

It can be argued that Thistlecrack shaped as the third best – even second best, at a push – horse in the race. It was undisputedly a large step forward from his Long Distance Hurdle seasonal debut – approaching 20lbs better, give or take.

He travelled strongly, albeit sometimes getting in a fraction too close to his fences, and gave the most sustained proximal chase to the leaders in the back straight and turning for home but had no extra from the third last and clambered tiredly over the next.

His updated situation report now lends greater weight to the post-Newbury theory that trainer Colin Tizzard got it right the second time when belatedly concluding Thistlecrack was woefully short of fitness on his return from a ten-month absence with a tendon injury.

However, the variable that the horse is not finishing off his races for a physical or mental reason, perhaps having glimpsed the dark side when taken past the limit by Many Clouds in January, have not been entirely dispelled. Jockey Tom Scudamore was of the former opinion, obviously.

Thistlecrack’s next race should answer that conundrum because if the former reason holds water, he should really come on again in form terms – unless the setback has permanently shaved off a certain je ne sais quoi in this soon-to-be ten-year-old.

It will be interesting to see which stepping-stone to Cheltenham the Tizzards choose, bearing in mind that they now plan to give stablemate Native River – trimmed for the Gold Cup by many firms for staying in his box this week – two runs prior beforehand.

Bristol De Mai was repeatedly out-jumped by Might Bite, even when the latter was being restrained, and began to make mistakes. Almost two circuits of such treatment had paled on him by the home turn and he soon lost four places, barely clambering over the third last.

Until proved otherwise, my working hypothesis is that an outrageously huge performance in the Betfair Chase in an outstanding time for the conditions took its toll and he ran flat as a result, little more than four weeks later. The right-handed track was also not an advantage.

If he’s given a break and freshened up for the Gold Cup, I suspect 20/1 is an over-reaction. But his front-foot trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies may not grant him such an opportunity and/or it may be that his Haydock run bottoms him for the entire season. It’s exactly this capacity for extremes that Henderson is seeking to tame in the long-term interests of Might Bite.

Not for the first time, Whisper looked ill at ease on a right-handed track. He was also without the services of Davy Russell, with whom he has particularly hit it off. Russell manages to get him jumping and travelling, neither of which were much in evidence at Kempton.

Defeat for Fox Norton could be presaged from the moment he jumped markedly out to his left at the first fence, a proclivity he displayed to a greater or lesser extent at almost every subsequent obstacle. It’s to his credit that he was able to muster some headway when asked to give chase to the leaders in the hottest part of the race. Belting the sixth last ended that.

His stamina is therefore still unproven but now his physical wellbeing is in some question given he didn’t jump left when, for example, beating Un De Sceaux at right-handed Punchestown in April. That said, he also didn’t jump as well there as he has done when racing left-handed at, say, Cheltenham and Aintree. So perhaps Kempton’s particular layout exposed a latent bias?

Analysis of the Christmas Chase (formerly the Lexus) must wait until Saturday, so the only other Gold Cup update here belongs to Coney Island – winner of the Grade One 2m4f Drinmore Chase as a novice last December and second to subsequent Irish Grand National hero Our Duke over three miles later that month, but ruled out of the Cheltenham Festival with a badly bruised foot.

Trainer Eddie Harty had at first toyed with pitching him into the Christmas Chase on his seasonal return but, faced with a particularly strong-looking renewal of that contest, concluded discretion was the better part of valour. So he instead shipped his charge to Ascot for a graduation chase.

Post-race, some bookmakers excitably offered as little as 10/1 for winning this three-runner affair by nine lengths after jumping scrappily early on yet making ground quickly on the home bend on front-running Adrien Du Pont, who had been ridden with too much aggression. The third player, More Of That, was beaten 35 lengths and sadly seems to have gone – certainly over fences, if not entirely.

Harty wasn’t getting carried away in the immediate aftermath, albeit he both warmed to the performance on second viewing and also acknowledged Coney Island’s likely programme would imply the opposite.

A horse of this potential at this stage in the season is funnelled towards the Irish Gold Cup in February. That will decide whether he’s good enough for the Cheltenham Gold Cup; in the meantime, he’ll be entered in that Festival race and the Ryanair, albeit the latter is very much Plan B at this juncture.

Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase

The two most significant currently active players in this division both passed the post first on Wednesday: Min lost his race in the stewards’ room at Leopardstown whereas Politologue’s only substantial opponent fell at Kempton, leaving him to dawdle round in a slow time.

In my view, Min achieved more that day and yet his performance has been pigeonholed as disappointing and many bookmakers pushed him out to third favourite for the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase. Accordingly, Politologue was widely promoted to market second best behind Altior.

In fairness, the grey probably should have been shorter than Min in the betting anyway because, in winning the Grade One Tingle Creek, he had already posted superior form – albeit you can argue, in light of the left-hand bias runner-up Fox Norton displayed in the King George, that this form is a tad over-rated.

Min’s shorter odds were based on potential and the reputation of his various stable companions floating around this division – which, as mooted in this column last week, is now perhaps more likely to include the peripatetic threat of Yorkhill. (More on that in Saturday’s edition of the Road.)

In the dramatic denouement to the Leopardstown Grade One lost by Min, his jockey Paul Townend drifted off the inside rail approaching the final flight. That presented rider Mark Walsh, on promoted winner Simply Ned, with a legitimate opportunity to challenge on his inside, initially taking Townend by surprise. After studying the two bouts of interference against the rail, the stewards opted for demotion and a two-day suspension for careless riding for Townend.

Speaking to Gary O’Brien about Min on At The Races, trainer Willie Mullins said: “It’s hard to say we were unlucky. He was there, he passed the post first. I don’t know if the other horse would ever have passed him.”

He then continued, more crisply: “The race was a funny race from the start. The first four furlongs told a lot about [pause] certain things... That’s the way it is… That’s what happened… People can make their own minds up.”

Asked whether he believed Min was “a lot better than what we saw there”, Mullins said: “I don’t think he’ll have to be. He won and obviously infringed the rules but he was first past the post. I still say even with a clear run, he’d have kept pulling it out.”

It’s clear from this interview that Mullins was not merely irked about losing the race in the stewards’ room. On that front, his argument that Simply Ned might never have got past Min with a clear run is feasible: the promoted winner had never before triumphed in a graded race and despite often travelling strongly in such contests – such as this race’s 2015 renewal – has often found little.

However, the interference in the first instance was sustained and in the second instance marked enough to send pieces of plastic railing flying. The latter bout came just as Simply Ned had responded positively to a strike of the whip from rider Walsh in the dying stages of the race. It’s therefore entirely reasonable that the stewards opted to amend the result under Turf Club rules.

Walsh felt that “with a clear run, I’d definitely have won”. “He [Min] impeded me the whole way up to the line. I jumped the last behind Paul [Townend] but there was plenty of room. When the rail came, Paul started leaning on top of me and there was a significant bang quite close to the line.”

Yet Mullins was palpably most nettled when referring to “the first four furlongs” of the race and the pause in his speech (quoted above) came across as a tool of self-governance to avoid telling us specifically what those furlongs “told a lot about”. As we’ve been left to make up our own minds, we should do so.

To my eye, Townend struggled to hold Min in the early stages, allowing him – if there was any choice – to tear off with front-running Tell Us More. When that horse rushed at the second and blundered badly, Min was left in a sizeable lead that the likes of Russell, Jack Kennedy and Walsh wanted no part in.

Now, they may not have wanted to mix it with a 2/7 favourite or else they may have deemed the pace was too strong. I suspect the latter and that Mullins would have preferred Townend to steady Min once left in front rather than continue to freewheel. These early fractions surely rendered them vulnerable late on.

This, combined with the tactical error of drifting off the inside rail late, lost Min this race as much as the interference did – perhaps more so, given the tactics set the scene for a desperate finish and result-affecting incident.

To return to what Min actually achieved, it was a safe if somewhat raw round of jumping – if occasionally overly big and occasionally spot on – and the way he tanked through the race surely means the Ryanair is a far less likely Festival option than the Champion Chase. He palpably didn’t lack for speed but Mullins is going to have to instil a more sophisticated style of racing.

Ordinary World, who missed his intended target in the Tingle Creek due to coughing and is therefore perhaps difficult to assess with confidence, was 15-and-a-half lengths adrift in third. Ball D’Arc, also coming back from the sick list after missing the Hilly Way due to running a temperature, would have been well below his recent form had he not unseated Kennedy at the last.

Simply Ned’s incoming UK mark was officially 6-7lbs below that of last season and yet his first two starts this term did not appear so vastly different to what he was achieving last season. Having run well in this race three times previously, it’s not hard to envisage him returning to near his best even at the age of ten.

If that’s the case, for the sake of argument and working calculations, a disadvantageously ridden Min can be pretty much rated as dead-heating with Simply Ned. That would see them both achieving about 160/161 in ratings terms, with Ordinary World plausibly running a handful of pounds below form and the clock underpinning this interpretation.

Clearly, even if you factor in excuses, this is not form to trouble the Altior we saw last season. But – to repeat the premise of this column’s Min bet at 8/1 – the market assumed (and assumes) both that he’ll return and that he’ll be as good as he was. This season alone to date surely demonstrates that neither foundation is unquestionably sound.

However, I suspect Min strictly achieved more there than Politologue managed at Kempton after his only serious rival departed at the eighth in the Grade Two Desert Orchid Chase. That horse was reigning Champion Chase hero Special Tiara, who had previously won Kempton’s 2016 renewal in underwhelming fashion.

On Wednesday, he adjusted left from the first fence and even semi-leapt over the path prior to jumping wildly at the seventh and plunging through the next – a fall that did not surprise you, were you watching live. This was an uncharacteristically poor round of jumping and he displayed no such left-hand bias here last term, so perhaps something was bugging him?

Neither Vaniteux nor Forest Bihan were able to get involved – albeit having been held up away from the principals, both were hampered by the faller whereas the winner got away scot free. Eventual runner-up Vaniteux hasn’t been running anywhere near his best form lately, although the previous start was better.

The time was underwhelming – two seconds slower than novice stable companion Cyrname in the earlier Grade Two Wayward Lad over the same course and distance (more on him on Saturday) – but given all we know about Politologue it’s perhaps unreasonable to expect otherwise in such circumstances. Indeed, Sam Twiston-Davies had to get highly animated in driving the good-jumping idler home from the last.

This all adds up to a performance that’s hard to assess with any certainty – you can fashion arguments with a stone’s worth of disparity – but probably ends up in the high 150s.

“He did all he had to do,” said trainer Paul Nicholls, when interviewed by Nick Luck on Racing UK. “As soon as Special Tiara fell, we knew we were in trouble because he doesn’t do a whole heap in front. But he’s just galloped on round here and got the job done.

“He’s a staying two-miler – the quicker they go, the better he is and he doesn’t want to be in front too soon.”

Kempton represented a change of plan for Politologue, re-routed from next month’s Clarence House at Ascot. Nicholls had concluded this race was a better fit, reasoning that it allows the horse to join the two-thirds of his string who’ll be having their flu jabs in the coming weeks, ushering in a traditionally quiet period for the stable.

Nicholls then plans to use the Game Spirit much as he did the Haldon Gold Cup – as a stepping-stone to the main Grade One target, this time the Champion Chase. He added that he’d only kept the grey “ticking over” since winning the Tingle Creek, implying that he wasn’t at his peak.

Of course, this reshaped campaign raises the prospect of Politologue meeting a returning Altior at Newbury – if the latter is fit enough soon enough for a prep run prior to the Festival. In that scenario, one of the two of them is likely to get pushed out in the betting so the current 3/1 for Politologue – or, thinking the unthinkable, 6/4 for Altior – looks a tad skinny right now.

Final thought: if it was Sandown’s right-handed orientation that primarily inconvenienced Fox Norton rather than the two-mile trip when half a length second to Politologue in the Tingle Creek and if all is physically well, then he very much does merit an entry in this two-mile contest and 9/1 – twice the best price of his conqueror – is probably too long.

Sky Bet Champion Chase odds: 5/4 Altior 4/1 Min, Politologue 8 Un De Sceaux 9 Fox Norton, Yorkhill

Ryanair Chase

It must be possible that Thistlecrack will be entered in this race as well as in the Gold Cup. Whether the Tizzards could be persuaded that a King George and Stayers’ Hurdle winner might be best dropping back to 2m5f for a Ryanair is perhaps debatable – especially when they’ve already got Fox Norton and Cue Card as potential contenders – but there is an argument in favour.

Scruffy jumping undoubtedly did not help Thistlecrack when defeated by Many Clouds over an extended 3m1f at Cheltenham in January but he was also ultimately outstayed. He travels strongly in his races and a positive ride over a shorter trip could see him to good effect. Just a thought. That said, only two firms quote him for this race – and at a stingy 7/1.

Given Fox Norton failed to prove his stamina in the King George, albeit perhaps for reasons apart from that factor, the chances of this race being his likeliest Festival target have surely increased.

However, both a potentially shallow Champion Chase field and Sizing John’s Leopardstown flop (given the Potts family will surely wish to be represented somehow in the Gold Cup) makes that reasoning less of a slam-dunk.

Last year’s narrow Champion Chase runner-up will surely do better returned to a left-handed track, has looked particularly effective at Cheltenham and is suited by an intermediate trip but he must also prove his wellbeing. 8/1 with Sky Bet about Fox Norton for the Ryanair is a reasonable price, while fully deploying The Yorkhill Caveat.

Traffic Fluide, who donned a first-time visor in the King George in an attempt to bestride the 10lb-plus ratings disparity with the race’s key players, was under pressure before the pace lifted in the second circuit. Although he remains unproven at three miles and a drop in trip could help, he therefore doesn’t currently look the horse he once was.

Check out Sky Bet's latest Ryanair Chase prices

Unibet Champion Hurdle

As odds of 2/11 suggested, Buveur D’Air was presented with a straightforward task in the Unibet Christmas Hurdle – even if the presence of an invigorated The New One kept him honest. Further adrift, Mohaayed quietly collected third-place prize money.

In filling the runner-up spot for the fourth time in this Grade One event, the Twiston-Davies talisman had no choice but to set up the race for his overwhelming rival: The New One needs a good pace at this trip but Buveur D’Air thrives off tracking one.

So one set it up; the other knocked it down – although, in retrospect, jockey Sam Twiston-Davies may feel he didn’t go fast enough. This was not a well-run race.

The hallmark of this performance was the winner’s professionalism and oh-so-slick jumping. It bodes well for his putative Unibet Champion Hurdle clash with Faugheen, who is set to run this week and will feature in Saturday’s update. In fact, it poses the older horse – whose jumping was not always as reliable – the question of whether his legs can carry him fast enough these days.

“He was rapid at the last,” Geraghty said of Buveur D’Air on Boxing Day, comparing his sleek hurdling with that of past greats such as Hurricane Fly, Hardy Eustace and Binocular. “I gave him a squeeze… and he measured it to a tee. I don’t think he can skim too much more off it… He’s slicker now, more professional, more grown-up.”

Trainer Henderson also observed: “He was good, very slick. His art of jumping is so professional. He doesn’t give an inch more than he needs to – it’s a fantastic technique.”

In contrast to his Festival modus operandi with his chief Gold Cup candidate, Henderson is keen to run Buveur D’Air again prior to March. “He’s the opposite to Might Bite,” he said. “He needs plenty of work and does need to race.”

He acknowledged that, given this horse is owned by JP McManus, a trip across the Irish Sea was not impossible but he would prefer neither to clash with Faugheen prior to Cheltenham nor to travel further afield than Wincanton’s Kingwell Hurdle or Sandown’s Contenders Hurdle that Buveur D’Air won last season.

So at this stage, the titleholder and more sustainedly present campaigner Buveur D’Air shades Faugheen in the ante-post betting – rightly, in my opinion. Ladies and gentlemen: Faugheen to serve.

Check out Sky Bet's Champion Hurdle prices

Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle

A pall has fallen on this division since the devastating news that titleholder Nichols Canyon – the only horse ever to beat Faugheen to date – lost his life in a fall at Leopardstown this week. Although I won’t be analysing that race until Saturday’s edition of the Road, it is impossible to embark on this subject without paying tribute to this bonny horse.

Third in the 2015 Neptune (now Ballymore) and 2016 Champion Hurdle, he finally registered his own Festival triumph - and eighth Grade One success - in last year’s Stayers’ event, thus opening up new horizons in his career. It’s desperately sad for owners Graham and Andrea Wylie that the sky has gone dark so prematurely. He will be long remembered and much missed by all of us.

His absence adds a further element of change in this division. Although this column’s ante-post selection Supasundae enhanced his claims this week, he was still overpowered by the mare Apple’s Jade, who had hitherto allegedly been set fast on the OLBG Mares’ event. A full debrief on that race follows on Saturday.

Five days earlier, a new staying star had also established himself at Ascot and now, as a result of the subsequent upheaval described above, now stands as 9/2 (best) favourite for the Stayers’ crown.

That horse is northern flag-bearer and fast progressive five-year-old Sam Spinner, who made all to win the Grade One JLT Reve De Sivola Long Walk Hurdle by two-and-three-quarter lengths from L’Ami Serge, the pair eight lengths clear of beaten favourite Unowhatimeanharry in third.

Previously, Sam Spinner strode through the mud to make all in a Haydock handicap in merciless front-running style. Here, he didn’t set quite such a strong pace but it was still sound enough to win convincingly. Both the overall time and his end-of-race demeanour betrayed that he had plenty left at the finish.

He mostly jumped well, particularly when it mattered over the last four hurdles and no more so than when comprehensively out-leaping the smooth-travelling L’Ami Serge at the last, to register the biggest successes to date in the careers of trainer Jedd O’Keefe and jockey Joe Colliver.

The latter appears to have learned quickly from his Haydock experience of using his whip when clearly winning – for which he incurred a £1,050 fine and an eight-day suspension – because at Ascot he rode his career-defining ally astutely, asking – and generously receiving – effort for hands and heels for almost all of the race.

It’s hard to grab hold of a powerfully galloping, good-jumping front-runner – as Cold Harden demonstrated in the 2015 World (Stayers’) Hurdle. Equally, these are not the easiest of tactics to pull off at Cheltenham. It probably wasn’t the strongest renewal two years ago and it may not be in 2018, however. The score between Nichols Canyon and Unowhatimeanharry was a closely fought 1-1, after all.

O’Keefe and Colliver also believe Sam Spinner doesn’t need to lead and it’s true to assert, given how he finished with running left in him, that we likely have not seen the best of him yet. We might not find out more until Cheltenham, however, given O’Keefe would be perfectly content to go straight to the Festival, keeping his horse fresh for his toughest assignment yet.

In the meantime, we’re left to reflect that the BHA’s official handicapper is less impressed than he might have been. He’s increased by 9lbs Sam Spinner’s master rating to 164 but kept L’Ami Serge on 159 and dropped Unowhatimeanharry 4lbs to 163. Perhaps of most immediate interest, he’s only raised close-up fourth The World’s End by 3lbs to 152 and kept rallying fifth Thomas Campbell on 158 – more on them in a moment.

To my mind, it’s hard to justify rating L’Ami Serge below Unowhatimeanharry on current results. The former is unexposed at three miles still – this was only the second occasion on which he’d tried that trip – and he travelled outrageously well (his signature style) for most of the contest. Having fluffed the last, he then found less than might have been expected by those unaccustomed to how he rolls.

It’s easy to envisage him hitting the frame in the Stayers’ Hurdle – a Zarkandar type run – after travelling smoothly until the latter stages. A race that places greater emphasis on speed-based stamina than does Ascot, especially on a sounder surface, should suit him well but they do get racing a long way out on Cheltenham’s New Course, meaning L’Ami Serge will have to get down and dirty at some point. And. He. Don’t. Like. Dirt.

I’m sure Unowhatimeanharry underperformed at Ascot but perhaps not to the extent that some have rated his effort. Last season’s spring Festivals had already revealed him to be competitive but beatable; rising ten, he’s a little less of the former and more of the latter. He was ridden a bit more forward than usual at Ascot in an attempt to rediscover his edge but it probably made little impact.

2017 Stayers’ Hurdle runner-up Lil Rockerfeller had a major off day. Although he’s often in trouble a long way out, it happened passing the stands before the final circuit here. Characteristically, he hung on in there for far longer than less rugged horses would have mustered and only weakened entering the straight, having been driven even to try to challenge the leader at the fourth last.

He was dropped 3lbs to 157 and on paper – and despite winning at Ascot last time – he is not in the same form as last season. That penultimate success tempers dogmatism on that point, however, even if the concern with this horse is that never-say-die gameness can tip over into ennui after being taken unto the brink too often.

Whereas Thomas Campbell was seemingly exposed as not good enough for this grade, as trainer Henderson had suspected when unfavourably contrasting his ability with stable companion L’Ami Serge last month, The World’s End took another step forward.

Clearly, this six-year-old is not progressing as rapidly as Sam Spinner but this was a creditable first attempt in Grade One open company from the Sefton Hurdle winner, who also fell at the penultimate flight when holding every chance in last season’s Albert Bartlett.

It’s perfectly possible that he��ll prove good enough to play a leading role in the 2018 Stayers’ Hurdle, especially on a likely sounder surface, but – to play trainers for a moment – if I were Tom George I’d take the precaution of qualifying him for the Pertemps Final to give myself Festival options. Speaking personally, I’d certainly then back him to win that qualifier – non-quagmire permitting.

If he met Thomas Campbell in a handicap right now, the latter would have to concede him 6lbs and yet The World’s End travelled like the third best horse in the Long Walk Hurdle before his lack of top-flight experience – or even peak fitness – told from after two out. Is this not a plan?

There are two left-field candidates that probably should be mentioned prior to concluding this section, although one makes more appeal to me than the other.

Given connections have been experimenting with More Of That in an attempt to relight his fire, it must be possible that they’ll give reverting to hurdles a whirl. He has never looked as comfortable over fences as he once did over the smaller obstacles – to the extent that he beat Annie Power in the 2014 World (as the Stayers’ Hurdle was then styled).

It strikes me there are also two other possibilities, given his sadly disheartening display at Ascot last Saturday: retirement or relocation to Enda Bolger’s yard in Ireland for a final throw of the cross-country dice. However, More Of That didn’t take well to the latter discipline when trying it for size at Cheltenham earlier this month.

Even if he does make the switch to hurdling, it may be too late for any grand designs with him rising ten years of age. That said, it’s not unknown for trainer Jonjo O’Neill to conjure one last hurrah. Pertemps anybody?

The other potential late addition to this cast is Finian’s Oscar, whose poverty of chasing technique is balanced by his gameness of spirit between obstacles. His Ascot defeat last Friday will be fully discussed in the Novice Chasers section of Saturday’s edition of the Road, but his switch to fences isn’t yet permitting him to express his evident ability.

Could the Tizzards opt to give him a Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle entry? It’s surely far more likely than stablemate and 2016 winner Thistlecrack being seriously considered for this race and yet he’s 20/1 (having admittedly, of course, achieved far more over hurdles) whereas Finian’s Oscar is 50/1.

That said, Mr T can be charmingly stubborn about such stuff and if he’s decided the younger horse is a chaser, a chaser he may well be for the foreseeable future…

OLBG Mares’ Hurdle

This event has the potential to be blown wide open if Apple’s Jade were to switch to the Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle, as her achievements rightfully warrant after winning Leopardstown’s Christmas Hurdle on her first attempt at three miles this week.

That race and other fallout for this division will be fully analysed in the next edition of the Road on Saturday.

Selections:
Advised 30/11/17: Min 8/1 Champion Chase with Paddy Power/Betfair
Advised 06/12/17: Supasundae 20/1 Stayers’ Hurdle with Bet365 and Paddy Power/Betfair
Advised 06/12/17: Mengli Khan for the Supreme 15/2 with Betfair
Advised 13/12/17: On The Blind Side for the Ballymore each-way 10/1 with various firms

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