Saturday racing analysis: Where now for Royale Pagaille at Cheltenham Festival?

There’s a wonderful Twitter account called History Of Horse Racing (@roar1968) which allows those of us of advancing years to wallow in nostalgia.

On Saturday morning as I looked out of the bedroom window and pondered whether to brave the frosty walk to the garage for breakfast provisions, I fired it up to watch a flurry of finishes from the Peter Marsh Chase.

Ashley House in 1983, Combs Ditch in 1986, Twin Oaks ('92), Jodami ('93) and Earth Summit two years later. It was glorious viewing – and in the years to come Royale Pagaille in 2021 will join them in the showreels.

This is a race that used to be a significant pointer to the Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup and when a seven-year-old lumps top-weight of 11st 10lb to a 16-length victory from a mark of 156 then you have to think it might well be again.

But this isn’t an established gunslinger just having a bit of target practice, he’s a rising star with options aplenty. He’s in the novice chases too and the Susanna Ricci team and trainer Venetia Williams can take their time before settling on the right spot to try and complete a sparkling four-timer.

He’s an important horse for his handler, big owners like this don’t come knocking on the door every day and when they do you need to take advantage. Williams is off to some start.

The trainer was at Ascot and in no mood to commit to any particular target. She tried to talk down the quality of the race, and yes it wasn’t a vintage Peter Marsh, but she was forced to admit the winner’s days in handicaps are over. The assessor will see to that.

In addition, Royale Pagaille has an important new duty to carry out. He’s emerged as the flagbearer for a much-maligned group, the third-season novice chasers. Unless physical problems have intervened, most horses of talent have found a way to open their account over fences in their first two seasons.

But 2021 is a strange year and in this winner, and the resurgent Sky Pirate, we have prime examples of why the old adage 'if at first you don’t succeed...', is still widely in use.

It was a day that was supposed to belong to the established stars but half an hour later Buveur D’Air met with defeat in the Unibet Champion Hurdle trial.

On the face of it a three-length loss at the hooves of 149-rated Navajo Pass, in receipt of three pounds, was severely underwhelming. The bookmakers thought so, even the non-runner/no bet firms doubling him in price to 20/1.

The chances are he’ll never scale the heights of 2018 again when he became a dual winner of the Champion Hurdle.

But this wasn’t a performance devoid of encouragement. Navajo Pass was race fit, at home at Haydock, and gunned to the front from flag fall.

He was always going to be a difficult hare for the pair of hounds to catch but for a stride or three between the final two flights it looked like Buveur D’Air would do so – and with little fuss.

The run flattened out though as 14 months on the sidelines, and ground that had been battered by Storm Christophe and was under cover as the Saturday morning snow fell, both took a toll. Nicky Henderson was disappointed, but not beaten. Buveur D’Air will go to the ball in March after all – and with a direct route – where a fitter and less rusty 10-year-old will bid to reclaim former glories.

It will be one of the greatest achievements of his remarkable trainer’s career were he to do so.

It wasn’t a lack of match practice that caught Politologue out in the Matchbook Betting Exchange Clarence House Chase at Ascot but an inspired First Flow and David Bass.

There was no hiding place from some way out as the winner was sent up to join issue with the market leader down the back straight.

What followed was a thrilling, high-speed duel – albeit one that was one-sided - down the home straight.

Perhaps this was First Flow’s day in the sun. Ascot suits him but he’s a warrior and one who will always let the others know he’s around.

That remark neatly applies to Bass too, whose no-nonsense style has impressed many an observer in the last season or two and drawn the odd comparison to Sir Anthony McCoy.

He has played a major role in trainer Kim Bailey’s revival and the handler was saddling a first top-flight winner since 1995 when Master Oats completed a Champion Hurdle/Gold Cup double for his then Lambourn-based team.

Bailey is now in the Cotswolds and resurgent.

He and his team have real momentum but heading into Cheltenham no-one has more of that than Royale Pagaille.

Thriving and set for a rating in the mid-160s, would you want to wait another 12 months for a tilt at chasing’s blue riband?