Racing Tips: Goodwood Friday Timefigure preview

FRIDAY

Some Flat cards over the past couple of weeks have been monotonous to say the least with multiple races over the same or very similar distances, but there is something for everyone on Goodwood’s Friday card with the speedsters going at it hammer and tongs over one of the fastest five furlongs in the country in the King George Qatar Stakes and the stayers toughing it out in one of the longest races in the calendar, the Coral Goodwood Handicap.

Throw in the Coral Golden Mile, one of the most competitive mile handicaps of the season, and it's hard to argue that it’s not the most interesting day of the week.

That’s not to say winners will be easy to find, however, and after hitting the crossbar several times so far a winner or two would certainly be welcome.

The opening Goodwood Handicap over an extended two-and-a-half miles is not usually the type of race that attracts me from a timefigure perspective as very few horses are proven over this far, let alone in a well-run race, but I’ll make an exception on this occasion and put up my old friend WITHOLD in the opener.

He’s not the force of old, clearly, but he can race here off his lowest mark in a handicap since his 2018 Northumberland Plate success and 2lb lower than the mark from which he finished second in this race last year when beating all bar Calling The Wind who was receiving 11lb and has now graduated to better company.

This will much more his bag than the steadily-run races over two miles he has contested this year (has a 5lb swing in the weights with Reshoun who beat him last time) and it’s too soon to be writing him off despite his advancing years.

I doubt there’s a better rider around Goodwood than William Buick and the fact he takes the ride for the first time is another pointer to a big run. He’ll be hard to keep out of the places.

I might come to regret not staying loyal to Buick in the next race, the Group 3 Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes which has an international feel to it with runners from Germany and Norway, but Ryan Moore is a satisfactory upgrade on David Egan on BAYSIDE BOY and hopefully he’ll keep him in better touch than the jocked-off rider did in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Ascot last time when a fast-finishing seventh to Coroebus.

I had put Bayside Boy forward in my opening day Royal Ascot timefigure preview as a good each-way bet, and it was galling to see him just fail after being held up well off what was an ordinary pace set by the leader Lusail.

I doubt that he’d have beaten Maljoom, who would have won by a couple of lengths had he got a clear run, but a final-furlong sectional of 11.82 seconds was second only to Maljoom’s 11.47 and 0.12 second faster than the better-placed Coroebus managed.

The winner of the Champagne Stakes as a youngster, the St James’s Palace Stakes was effectively Bayside Boy’s first race of the year having been drawn out of it in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains on his reappearance at ParisLongchamp.

Buick’s mount Checkandchallenge heads the market. He found the 2000 Guineas a bridge too far back in April, but he ran well in the Coral Challenge at Sandown last time, not least given that he gave the winner Sinjaari a big head-start and nearly reeled him in. Checkandchallenge had a big weight-for-age allowance that day, which arguably lionizes his performance slightly, but there’s no doubt he will be a tough opponent and the one that Bayside Boy has to beat.

Much like the Oak Tree on the second day, the Golden Mile is one of the most draw-influenced races in the year with a heavy bias towards low numbers.

That doesn’t make it any easier to solve from a timefigure perspective as four of the five horses (if you include the reserves) with the best chance on time have drawn four of the lowest six stalls, and it’s no surprise to see one of them, Noble Dynasty, head the market.

One of the others, EILEAN DUBH from stall 6 on the back of a defeat of the re-opposing Blue For You, makes more appeal at 16/1 each-way.

Karl Burke’s four-year-old has progressed very well this season and was back to winning ways last time after being drawn wide over an unsuitable six furlongs at Pontefract on his previous start. Eilean Dubh was never stronger than at the finish at York, and though that race was at seven furlongs he already has a win at a mile to his name this season. He has next to nothing to find on the clock, is most progressive and makes plenty of each -way appeal.

The King George looks a trappy sprint, but ACKLAM EXPRESS could be the way to go.

He has 2lb to find on time ratings with the top-rated Raasel, but the latter is no certainty to confirm form with a couple of those behind him last time from the steadily-run Coral Charge, a race in which luck played a big part in proceedings and he had plenty while Equilateral in particular had none, but his latest third to outstanding Australian sprinter Nature Strip in the Kings Stand Stakes was a corking effort and backed up fully by the clock.

Acklam Express won his only previous start here (at this Festival in 2020) very easily and around 15/2 looks too big.

Timefigure selections - Goodwood Friday

Back Withhold each-way in 1.50

Back Bayside Boy in 2.25

Back Eilean Dubh each-way in 3.00

Back Acklam Express in the 3.35

SATURDAY

Much like the fourth day at Goodwood, the fifth and final day has something for everyone if not to the same extremes with the Group 2 Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes over a mile and three quarters and the Coral Stewards’ Cup over six furlongs dominating the card, supporting by a couple of interesting handicaps that all make up to a fine day’s racing.

Oddly, the Coral Stewards' Sprint Handicap at 14.45 - effectively the ‘consolation’ race for the Stewards’ Cup - has attracted only a dozen runners when the sponsors were no doubt anticipating many more (sixteen has been the smallest field in the history of the race).

Whether it’s the participation of the progressive three-year-old Lethal Levi that has put potential competitors off or the lure of a similar prize worth roughly half as much again at Windsor on Monday, the race has nonetheless ended up inadvertently with a decent betting shape.

There's little doubt that Lethal Levi deserves to be favourite. Two all-the-way wins on the July Course this summer after breaking from the stalls faster than a cheetah eyeing up its prey have made for exciting viewing, and there’s no doubt he’s well handicapped even under his penalty given that he can effectively race off a mark 1lb lower than when last successful seven days ago, but Goodwood’s six furlongs is rather different from Newmarket’s in that the first furlong is uphill rather than an immediate downhill and whether that will suit Lethal Levi as well remains to be seen and at his current price of 7/4 it’s well worth finding out given three-year-olds have won just one renewal since the race was inaugurated in 2010.

The one who appeals most on the clock is TREACHEROUS, who has won twice here from four starts including this race in 2020 readily off a mark of 83. He has to be forgiven a below-par run at Ascot last time but that contest took place on rattling fast ground.

Before that he had looked to be on the way back at Windsor on his first run after a wind operation when a close third to A Sure Welcome, well clear of the rest who were headed by the reopposing Mitrosonfire who he meets on the same terms but can be backed at twice the price. The forecast strong pace will play into his hands, and he can pick up the pieces late on.

The 2021 consolation was won by Mr Wagyu, of course, and he is back in the big one this time off a mark 15lb higher having picked up a 6lb penalty for winning a big sprint handicap in Ireland last time.

Exactly what he achieved on the clock that day is open to question as the times on the straight course made little sense despite denials from the Curragh executive that anything was untoward, but even the pick of his other efforts leaves him with a bit to find for all that this is his time of year as has been well documented several times.

The 2020 Stewards’ Cup winner Summerghand tops the Timeform ratings and isn’t far off top on time ratings either, which are headed by course winner and last-time-out eye-catcher Whenthedealinsdone, but in a very open race in which cases can be made for many I’m inclined to plump for RAATEA who is second only to Whenthedealinsdone on the clock and comes here after a win on the tapeta at Newcastle but is just as effective on turf.

Raatea is still unexposed as a sprinter having started his career off with Marcus Tregoning over further and has won two of his seven starts since being fitted with a hood.

True, he is racing off a career-high mark, but the manner in which he forged clear at Newcastle suggested that he wouldn’t have any problems coping with a higher mark and there’s every chance that this big-field strong-gallop scenario will bring out even more improvement so long as his draw in stall 2 isn't an inconvenience.

The Lillie Langtry doesn’t make much appeal from a betting perspective with the clear pick on time, Jessica Harrington’s Forbearance, seemingly out of sorts and the form pick Sea La Rosa having plenty to find on the clock.

The opening maiden for two-year-olds looks a good opportunity for Classic to get off the mark after his very eye-catching Newbury debut, but for my last suggestion I’ll swerve the final two handicaps and concentrate on the 14.10 where HMS PRESIDENT looks overpriced around 14/1.

Godolphin have been taking all before them in the handicaps this week so it’s no surprise to see Trawlerman at the head of the market, but Hms President has very sound claims on time being 4lb clear on weight-adjusted ratings.

He was successful here two starts back off a 3lb lower mark and though he finished well held last time he was one of the chief sufferers in the melee in the bet365 Trophy that ended the chances of several and the lives of two.

Hms President still hadn’t been asked for his effort at the time, so he almost certainly remains in form, and if he reproduces his Mallard second form from last autumn at Doncaster off a 2lb higher mark than he can race off here, then he’ll go very close.

That was the last time Ryan Moore rode him, incidentally, and he takes over here for the first time since. Given he doesn’t win as often as he should, each-way looks the best option.

Timefigure selections - Goodwood Saturday

Back Treacherous in 13.40 Goodwood

Back Hms President each-way in 14.20 Goodwood

Back Raatea in 15.20 Goodwood

Published at 1515 BST on 29/07/22

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