Today's tips: Racing preview and best bets
Our star daily duo of Rory Delargy and David Massey have had a good week - check out their three Saturday bets.
Racing betting tips: Saturday May 11
0.5pts e.w Youthful King in the 1:30 Ascot at 9/1 (Bet365 - 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Brave Nation in the 4:55 Ascot at 5/1 (General, take no lower)
2pts win Lark In The Mornin in the 3:15 Haydock at 5/2 (Ladbrokes, Betfred, Coral)
3.15 Haydock
Maybe it’s just us getting older, but we’re both of the opinion the Swinton ain’t what it used to be, and this year’s edition makes little appeal for a bet.
That’s unless the 5/2 Lark In The Mornin holds up, because despite a big field, he still looks potentially thrown in here, with the 6lb weight allowance for age just another added bonus.
The handicapper has stuck him up 8lb for his Boodles win at the Festival but that form has already been franked twice at Punchestown, firstly by Harsh and then Eagle Fang, and it looks a piece of form you can hang your hat on. On top of which he gets quickish ground for the first time, which we both believe he’ll improve for, and he’s going to prove hard to beat. No shock here if he went off around the 13-8 mark.
And the each-way bet looks to be the rock-solid Afadil, who has turned in three very good efforts in quality handicaps this spring already and as long as he’s not had enough for the season then he should run his race again.
I suggested Teddy Blue to Rory as well, but he threatened to smash his phone up at that point if I kept on talking, so I decided to shut up. (I think he might be in the five.)
1.50 Lingfield
Lingfield’s not really a punting card as far as we’re concerned, but the 1m3½f handicap at 1.50 is at least worth a mention for a couple.
Aimeric is a blindingly obvious selection for Rory, having won first time up last year before running well in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot and finishing the season off with another ready win at Beverley. He looks the type to do better again this year, and is probably the one to beat.
I’ll throw in Track Of Time, having his first start after leaving Francis Graffard for Ian Williams, and his two victories for that yard came after breaks of 72 days and 97 days, so the fact he’s been off since January is of little concern. He’s not been tried at twelve furlongs that often but his best run on the figures came at the trip at Saint-Cloud last September, and he’s surely worth another try at this trip.
1:30 Ascot
Ascot’s where it’s at for betting purposes today, starting with this 12f handicap where we both like one at a price, and we can both see the merits of each other’s selections.
I like Youthful King, who keeps shaping like he wants this sort of trip now having often got going too late over ten furlongs this spring. Things didn’t pan out for him at Newmarket a week ago but to his credit he kept trying and was far from disgraced. This is a quick enough turnaround but I don’t see that as an issue, and the more the ground dries, the better his chance.
It’s Obsidian Knight for young Delargy, who has yet to win on turf but ran to form on quick ground at Newbury over this trip last June, and comes here off the back of a win at Chelmsford last time out. That win came off a break and he often comes forward for a run, so there’s hope he’ll do even better again today, and the handicapper barely touched him for Kempton, so he still looks on a fair mark.
2:05 Ascot
This is an interesting one as we both like one from the Snowdrop at Kempton, and even after Rory asked me to go back and look at the race - he thinks his selection will reverse form with mine - I still think there’s little to choose between the pair today.
I liked the chances of Rose Prick before the Snowdrop and in hitting the frame at 50s she got me a bit back each-way. I do like her as a project this season, for all she’s not well handicapped with Mother Mary (who is Rory’s selection) here, the latter getting a 10lb pull for three lengths today, but the more I watch it back I love the way Rose Prick is going on again at the finish and I don’t think it’s as cut and dried as my writing partner thinks it might be.
Either way, we are going to disagree - it’ll just be interesting to see how this one pans out, and whether either can settle better than they did at Kempton, which could be the deciding factor…
2:40 Ascot
No such disagreements on the Victoria Cup though, with the pair of us thinking that the pace looks likely to come from the middle here, and we wanted something that will travel well that’s drawn just to the high side of that pace. Ideally, some course form and a run under his belt this year - step forward Pearle D’Or who ticks every one of those aforementioned boxes.
On the same mark as when a close third in the Howden Challenge Cup over this C&D last October, a run in which he “won” the far side group but found a couple too good on the near side, his Newmarket comeback effort was merely one to grease the gears for this, emphasised by the point that he was missing his usual headgear, which is back on today. However the price has gone this morning so we're sitting this one out.
Hickory is another stunningly obvious one that has C&D form to call upon, and he ran very well on his reappearance at Kempton when second to Zero Carbon, but whether stall 6 is where you want to be today is another matter.
4:55 Ascot
Before the Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes at Royal Ascot last season, I had a conversation with Rory along the lines of this -
Me - “There’s one in here that’s definitely going to be winning races next year.”
Him - “Well, tell me next f*****g year then.”
I forget that Rory has the memory of a goldfish when it comes to remembering names; bless him, he can barely remember the names of his kids most of the time, so for his benefit and indeed, dear reader, yours, the horse in question was Brave Nation and I have good reason to believe he might start winning today.
Useful as a 2-y-o, including a fourth to The Ridler in the Norfolk here, as is so often the case he disappointed at three and was gelded before Royal Ascot last year. There was just enough in that run to make me think that, once he refound his form and dropped in the handicap as a result, he’d be of more interest this season.
And sure enough, that’s what’s happened. He’s steadily refound his form and ran third over 5f here on his reappearance, looking like this step up to 6f would suit. Potentially well drawn in stall 25, he’s 15lb lower than he was this time last year and the booking of the champion Will Buick really does catch the eye. The yard are finding form after a slow start to the turf season, and there’s a lot to like about his chances here.
Posted at 1015 BST on 11/05/24
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