A guide to the runners in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster and ten year trends and statistics

Alfa McGuire

Good enough to win two novice races but rated only 88, some 29lbs of the best of these, and another zero on his price wouldn't be tempting.

Chilean

Improved from his maiden to win his novice and a heavy ground Listed race at Haydock (five of his six rivals have been beaten since). Clearly progressive and clearly useful and jockey (Andrea Atzeni) has won the last four renewals but taking on a different calibre of rival and hasn't done enough to suggest he can win this.

Coat Of Arms

Has achieved a reasonable level of form (rated 101) but was 11 lengths behind Verbal Dexterity two starts back and seems likely to help set the pace for his Ballydoyle stablemates.

Gabr

Remarkably his trainer (Sir Michael Stoute) has saddled just one winner in this race (Dilshaan in 2000) and there hasn't been enough in his three starts to suggest this nicely bred individual can double the tally.

Loxley

Powerful yard has enjoyed a fine time with their juveniles and interesting up to a point that they're pitching him in here on just his second start but very difficult to fancy on the back of that Goodwood maiden where he dead-heated for first.

Merlin Magic

Off the mark at the fourth attempt, earning a rating of 88, and another one who would make little appeal at any price.

Roaring Lion

Unbeaten in three starts, including when narrowly taking the Group Two Royal Lodge from a Ballydoyle runner last time. Not hard to think that the runner-up that day, Nelson, sits a few rungs below his stablemates lining up here but that's not to say Roaring Lion can't make his presence felt. America seemed a more likely destination for this US bred so interesting John Gosden, who's never trained the winner of this race, sends him here.

Saxon Warrior

No wins in the last four but Aidan O'Brien has won this race seven times and has a strong hand to close in on Sir Henry Cecil who lifted this prize on 10 occasions. Saxon Warrior is unbeaten in two and the choice of Ryan Moore which would suggest he's the leading contender of four from the yard; the market certainly thinks so. Michael Halford's Casamento and St Nicholas Abbey both won the Beresford Stakes before winning this prize and he could easily become the third colt to complete that double (in the last decade).

Seahenge

Son of Scat Daddy who is related to winners in the US might reasonably have been expected to be enjoying warmer climes in California rather than being asked to ply his trade in South Yorkshire. Stable second string when third in the Dewhurst Stakes (behind stablemates) last time and similar scenario could pan out here.

Theobald

Stablemate of leading contender Verbal Dexterity has won one from five and presumably lines up to ensure the pace is kept honest for his stable companion.

The Pentagon

Almost 20 lengths behind Verbal Dexterity on debut but that form is best ignored given his subsequent performances, namely a wide margin maiden win and Group Three success from Theobald. Shaped like a strong stayer the last day which is no surprise given his stout pedigree and lofty position in the Investec Derby market so should relish this step up to a mile and dangerous to underestimate the difficulty of the decision facing Ryan Moore who has passed him over in favour of Saxon Warrior.

Verbal Dexterity

Recently described by his trainer as 'the best looking horse in Ireland' but bias aside, there's a good deal to like about this son of Vocalised who was an impressive winner of the Group One National Stakes last time, form which marks him down as the one to beat. Sole defeat came on his one run over six furlongs and not hard to view this step up to a mile as a positive. Reportedly over the setback that ruled him out of the Dewhurst and easy enough to make a case for him on price alone.

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Key statistics from the last ten renewals

• Eight winners won their preceding start.
• All winners had won over at least seven furlongs, eight of whom had won over a mile.
• Only four winners were unbeaten, of whom, only two had raced more than once.
• Only four winners made their debut before August but those four - who all ran in July - have come in the last six renewals.
• Four winners were having their first start in a Group race.
• No winner has had more than four starts.
• No winner has been beaten more than twice.
• Seven favourites have been successful.

Conclusion

A good race for favourites and a good race for Aidan O'Brien. He hasn't saddled the winner for four years but he hasn't been responsible for the favourite in three of those and last year's beaten jolly Yucatan, who was second, had been beaten by stablemate Capri in the Beresford Stakes on his previous start.

O'Brien sends the winner of that Naas race (Saxon Warrior) to England this year and the impression is that this year's principals are much stronger than in the last few renewals. There is, of course, the small matter of that world record to be achieved.

Verbal Dexterity is the obvious threat to postponing the celebrations and Jim Bolger's runner is a real threat but although he's given his colt a clean bill of health, it can't be ideal that he was being prepared for the Dewhurst Stakes a fortnight ago and he's consequently passed over for all that he boasts the best form as things stand.