QIPCO 2000 Guineas preview: Simon Holt looks ahead to the Newmarket Classic

If you get caught in a lift with someone who a) probably doesn't like you very much, b) is quite angry with you or c) might want to kill you, there are certainly better places to be

It's unlikely that 'Mr Combustible' Barry Hills would have considered nuclear option c) when we congregated in that confined space at Ascot one day, but the legendary trainer wasn't looking too pleased.

After a nod of recognition, his eyes narrowed and I thought steam might emerge from the ears. "What nonsense about Newmarket," he said. "How could you write that? It's the best racecourse in the world!"

I began to reply: "All I said was......" but, before there was any chance to explain, the lift doors opened and (thank goodness) off he went.

All I said was that, if anybody wanted to build a new racecourse today, they wouldn't design it like the Rowley Mile as the spectator viewing experience is so remote that the action is best watched on big screens or (at home) on television.

Another problem is that almost all the races are run in a straight line - like too many in this country - on the very wide track which has occasionally raised suspicions of bias, particularly in big fields which split into at least two groups.

Two very high class renewals of Saturday's QIPCO 2000 Guineas developed in this manner, when Rock Of Gibraltar won up the far rail in 2002, beating Hawk Wing who had to race alone down the centre.

And then, in one of the best Guineas of all in 2014, Night Of Thunder charged home down the centre to beat the outstanding miler Kingman on the far side by a head with the subsequent Derby winner Australia on the stands rail another head behind.

In 2007, Cockney Rebel led the first six home on the stands side, in 2012 Camelot and French Fifteen finished clear on the stands side and, when Gleneagles won in 2015, three of the first four finished stands side as well.

This is the nature of races on a straight course and, considering that the 2000 Guineas is a 'kingmaker' race for future stallions, the outcome has not always been entirely satisfactory.

That was the point, rightly or wrongly.

Bearing in mind how well he handled the Rowley Mile and its notorious 'dip' in the Dewhurst Stakes last October, City Of Troy ought to have no excuses providing what looks likely to be a smallish field race together in one group However, considering Aidan O'Brien's record-breaking ten victories in the first Classic of the season, it is surprising that Saturday's red-hot favourite will be seeking to end a small losing run.

Last year, the similarly vaunted Auguste Rodin flopped badly, beating just two home behind Chaldean with stable companion Little Big Bear (a non-stayer) last of the 14 runners.

And, while Wichita was second to Kameko in 2020 and Luxembourg third behind Coroebus two years ago, O'Brien has sent out 11 losers since Magna Grecia's victory in 2019.

The market suggests that City Of Troy has only to prove he's trained on to 'stop the rot' and, in most books, Rosallion is the only other horse in the field at single figure odds.

So what could possibly go wrong?

A son of the US Triple Crown winning Justify, out of the Fillies Mile winner Together Forever (by Galileo), he certainly looks outstanding but there is a small question mark about the 'training on' bit.

Described by Coolmore's dynamic marketing team as "probably the best young sire in the world", Justify has been responsible for some smart two-year-olds in Australia who, in the words of a Sydney-based colleague, have 'come back to the pack' at three.

It's early days to be drawing too many similar conclusions in Britain and Ireland; City Of Troy is by far the stallion's best product so far followed by Capulet, Group Two placed last year and then third at Chelmsford first time out, and his full brother Unbelievable (formerly known as Bertinelli) who won a handicap at Newbury last year and then ran third to Desert Hero at Royal Ascot before being exported to Hong Kong.

Bertinelli apart, Together Forever, who was second in the Musidora before being beaten in both the English and Irish Oaks in a limited second campaign, has passed on her early precocity to Military Style, a Group winner as a juvenile but well beaten in two starts at three, Absolute Ruler a first time out juvenile winner who won a maiden hurdle at Huntingdon last year and King Of Athens who promised much when winning at Lingfield as a two-year-old but then failed to win in his second season.

All of which suggests that, on breeding, this is quite a precocious pedigree and there are no absolute guarantees (when are there in racing?) that City Of Troy will replicate the deeply impressive performances of his first season.

Alternatively, he may be a freak but Rosallion is very smart too and could prove a formidable rival. While no match for O'Brien in terms of Guineas winners, the Hannons (senior and junior) have won the race four times between them (including with Night Of Thunder), and Richard junior considers the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere winner as perhaps the best he has trained.

Rosallion was surprisingly beaten on soft ground in the Champagne Stakes (third to Iberian) before his successful visit to France, but it was an earlier victory at Ascot where he really looked something special in thrashing decent horses like Al Musmak, Ancient Wisdom and Alyanaabi, who chased City Of Troy home in the Dewhurst.

By the hugely popular Blue Point, who got better in each of his four seasons, he is out of an unraced New Approach daughter of ‘golden hen’ Reem Three who has delivered a string of high quality performers including Triple Time (Queen Anne), Cape Byron (Victoria Cup/Wokingham) and Group One Prix Jean Romanet winner Ajman Princess, the dam of another 2000 Guineas possible Inisherin.

In the Craven Stakes, Haatem put down quite a marker for the Hannon team with a thoroughly decisive success and still looks unusually progressive for a horse who ran nine times in his first season.

Haatem is no match for Rosallion at home and he wasn't in the same class as City Of Troy either on two occasions last year, finishing fifth in the Dewhurst and beaten six-and-a-half lengths into second in the Superlative Stakes.

Again, Saturday's favourite looked utterly superlative in those races and he could be very special.

He was bred to have been very effective as a two-year-old, and so he was.

But that was then, and this is now.

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