Strong challenges from Ireland and France for the QIPCO 1000 Guineas but Graham Cunningham feels a Britsh filly is the forgotten horse.
Sandrine flying under the radar as Classic fillies provide the main distraction
There is only one thing more distracting than the sight of a female changing her legs and that is the sound of the leading lady for the QIPCO 1000 Guineas being relegated to the back benches. Sunday’s news that Inspiral is out of the big race resulted in a re-write for part two of this week’s Guineas File but the door is now ajar for a host of Irish and French fillies and an interesting British outsider to make a mark in Sunday’s big race.
How big a hole does Inspiral’s absence leave?
A significant one, especially for those who can’t resist juvenile gags about 1980s bands from Oldham. Inspiral was trading at around Carpet (3-1) for Sunday’s race and, having missed work at a crucial stage, the Gosdens are changing tack.
We know she comes in the fall based on her wins in the May Hill and Fillies’ Mile last autumn but the Coronation Stakes could give her a chance to shine in the summer. And what about Frankie, who is considering his options with no Gosden presence in the first two Classics of the season?
Having won the 1000 on Mother Earth last year you would expect Aidan to come a calling. And, in the week when he makes a triumphant entry into racing’s Hall of Fame, the world’s most famous rider surely won’t be left singing ‘This Is How It Feels To Be Lonely.’
Will Tenebrism be fully effective over the Guineas mile?
My mole in the art world says the tenebrism style is all about violent contrasts between light and dark and there are a few shades of grey when assessing the equine version.
Yes, you could take the trusty pundit route of saying “if she gets the trip she’ll be hard to beat” but I haven’t found a bookie who will lay bets with that proviso yet and therein lies the core of a polarising debate.
Aidan and Ryan are optimistic that Tenebrism will stay a mile, ATR’s time and stride length guru Simon Rowlands less so, while Timeform’s analysts seem non-committal. Okey Doke, it seems we have a difference of opinion.
For what it’s worth, I think Tenebrism is more likely to stay than not. Her sire Caravaggio never went beyond six furlongs – though he ran almost seven when covering wide swathes of Ascot in the Coventry – and hasn’t sired many milers in his early years at stud.
But Tenebrism is out of an exceptional miler in Immortal Verse, who beat the mighty Goldikova in the Prix Jacques la Marois, and she relaxed well before producing a withering finish to win the Cheveley Park. If there’s a crackerjack filly in this year’s field it’s probably her but she seems easy enough to back and there are enough variables in play to seek less obvious options.
Is there an ace in the rest of the Irish pack?
Four of Aidan’s seven 1000 winners have been gained by one of his lesser fancied runners and impeccably-bred Naas maiden winner Tuesday (a sister to 1000 winner Minding) can’t be ruled out as she bids to emulate fellow so-called second or third strings like Mother Earth, Winter, Hermosa and Homecoming Queen.
Homeless Songs showed a sharp turn of foot to land the Leopardstown trial but is only 50-50 to run according to Dermot Weld, while Discoveries had to work hard to land the G1 Moyglare last year but is bred to thrive as a sister to the high-class Alpha Centauri.
You may sense a lack of conviction in the last two paragraphs and, if so, you’re close to the mark. Homeless Songs looked much improved at Leopardstown. She’s one to be positive about if Weld chooses HQ over Longchamp but that’s in the balance for the moment and there are others at bigger prices who warrant a second look.
Do they include the French raiders?
Yes, though it’s fair to say that both Malavath and Zellie need to find a few pounds more if the 1000 is up to its usual standard.
Malavath has progressed well in a six-race career, finishing second on fast ground at the Breeders’ Cup before mastering Zellie in the mud over seven at Deauville on her reappearance, and her trainer Francis-Henri Graffard seems very upbeat.
Zellie was ridden much more prominently than usual in the Imprudence and Andre Fabre is keen to see her back at a mile, the trip over which she excelled when winning last year’s Prix Marcel Boussac under an excellent ride from Oisin Murphy.
Malavath looks a safer bet to handle fast conditions than Zellie. That might give her the edge in the battle of the Frenchies but only time will tell whether that makes her the cream of the entire crop.
Why does the market suggest the Brits are set to be bit players?
Because that’s exactly what their form suggests most of them ought to be.
The likeable Cachet showed she’s trained on with a decisive Nell Gwyn win and will give it a lash from the front again but, along with Mise En Scene, Prosperous Voyage and Dubai Duty Free/Fred Darling winner Wild Beauty, she was put firmly in her place by Inspiral last year.
Ameynah looked good when forging clear in a maiden at the Craven Meeting but Pattern race experience is generally a major plus for Guineas hopes and SANDRINE ticks a few notable boxes for those who like to dabble at big prices.
Andrew Balding’s filly was a match for the very best around last summer, impressing in emphatic G2 successes at Royal Ascot and on the July Course then shaping like the best horse in the race when second, caught on the wing under a penalty, in the Lowther at York.
Sandrine found herself marooned out away from the main action again on her final start as Tenebrism and Flotus charged up the rail to dominate the Cheveley Park.
It would be fanciful to say she would have won had she raced on the same strip as the first two but Sandrine is definitely better than that result suggests. Add in the fact that she’s a good looker who ought to be at home over a mile this season and she starts to look a lot like one of the most attractive each way bets of Guineas weekend at 20/1 in a few spots.
