Two of his Cambridgeshire shortlist finished first and second on Saturday, now David Ord has a horse-by-horse guide to the Arc.
ALOHI ALII
Forms part of a strong Japanese team and he's the least experienced member of it too.
He won only one of four career starts on home soil, a newcomers' race at Tokyo last year, but took his form to a new level in the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano at Deauville. Making all under Christophe Lemaire he showed a good turn of foot beat Rashabar with Cualificar, the subsequent Prix Niel winner, back in third.
He’s respected but he won’t get to set his own fractions up front in an Arc and while the step up to a mile-and-a-half should suit, he’s yet to try the trip.
ARROW EAGLE
Trainer Jean-Claude Rouget knows how to win an Arc but it would be some magic trick to do so with this colt.
He did win the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in the summer but was a laboured sixth in the Prix Niel last time which leaves him with plenty to find.
AVENTURE
Second to Bluestocking in the race last season, her whole campaign has been geared around this year’s renewal. She warmed up by winning the Vermeille, albeit with main market rival Whirl well below form.
She’s a model of consistency and a proven Group One performer who deserves her place towards the head of the market.
BYZANTINE DREAM
Oisin Murphy knows this colt well and feels he’s the right type for the race, an opinion no doubt bolstered by his half-length defeat of Sosie in the Prix Foy last time.
That was a career-best effort and puts him right in the mix here, especially if the weather forecast is correct and there’s a dry week ahead in Paris.
CUALIFICAR
Second to Camille Pissarro in the Prix du Jockey Club, he landed the Prix Niel here last time on his first start over a mile-and-a-half.
He’s in the right hands and talented but does look to have a little to find with one or two of these and will definitely need a career-best effort to give Andre Fabre another Arc success.
CROIX DU NORD
A winner of four of his five starts in Japan, he touched off Daryz to win the Prix Du Prince D’Orange last time. Going back up to a mile-and-a-half should suit him, that was a first run for three months after a summer break and the Japanese Derby winner is another with a live chance.
DARYZ
His only blip came in that bizarre Juddmonte International at York and he was firmly back on track – and on the up – when touched off by Croix Du Nord most recently.
He looked a little unlucky that day having had to wait for a gap before rattling home and promises to relish the step up to a mile-and-a-half (bred to stay the trip well). One of the few in the race who arrives here with the scope for further improvement.
ESTRANGE (NON-RUNNER)
GEZORA
Prix de Diane heroine who ran well to chase home Aventure in the Prix Vermeille on her first run after a summer break. She was was patiently ridden and came home nicely to finish a length-and-a-half adrift of her rival.
That was a first start over this trip and she’s clearly entitled to get closer to her older rival if a more strongly-run race at the trip plays to her strengths, which remains to be seen.
GIAVELLOTTO
All of the fall-out following his September Stakes win centred around the defeat of Kalpana, but at 33/1 I can’t help but think the Kempton victor is sailing somewhat under the radar.
Andrea Atzeni is heading back to take the ride and his partner is overpriced based on his win at Sha Tin in December and that length-and-a-half defeat of Andrew Balding’s one-time Arc favourite. He was the one accelerating at the line that day and he looks like getting his ground in Paris.
HOTAZHELL
He’s come up short in four tilts at Group One prizes this season and for all his Irish Champion Stakes fourth behind Delacroix was right up there with his best performances, it hardly screamed Arc winner.
KALPANA
The September Stakes wasn’t really set up to showcase her talents but it was disappointing nonetheless that she wasn’t able to get the job done.
If you judge her on her strong-travelling King George second to Calandagan then you have a serious Arc contender on your hands, but one that’s a third of the price of her Kempton conqueror in a race run on a surface that will suit him more than her.
LEFFARD
A big price despite having won the Grand Prix de Paris although that hardly looked a stellar renewal. He ran better than his finishing position suggests under a hold-up ride in the Prix Niel last time and on firm he’s among the leading middle-distance three-year-old colts in France right now.
LOS ANGELES
Looked set for a good season when winning the Tattersalls Gold Cup in the spring, but was no match for Ombudsman and co in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes having chased his pacemaker Continuous in a race where the principals were played last of all.
However, subsequent defeats in the Royal Whip and Prix Foy are harder to forgive and he’ll do well to repeat last year’s effort when third from the front. Might have to jump and go again this weekend too.
MINNIE HAUK
A perfect four from four this season and Whirl has done plenty to advertise the strength of her performance to win the Betfred Oaks at Epson in June.
She was even better at York last time when drawing clear of Estrange and now finds herself as the Ballydoyle number one for the Arc. Christophe Soumillon rides and few know ParisLongchamp better than he, while connections have always felt we’ll see the best of Minnie Hauk in a big field and with a strong pace to aim at. She should get both on Sunday.
QUISISANA
She’s won six of her eight career starts and grabbed a first Group One in the Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville last time.
There was plenty to like about the way she came clear of subsequent Vermeille fourth Survie and she too is proven at a mile-and-a-half. Another who needs to find a little more to win an Arc but is well worth a shot at one.
SOSIE
Was sent off favourite for this last year but lacked the change of gear required to play a leading role and finished fourth behind Bluestocking. Has added the Ganay and Prix d’Ispahan to his haul this term and chased home Byzantine Dream in the Prix Foy to complete his Arc preparation.
Clearly has his chance again for master Arc trainer Andre Fabre, but will be vulnerable to any rival producing a real finishing kick.
WHITE BIRCH
Not quite been at his very best this season despite an encouraging return when second behind Los Angeles in the Mooresbridge Stakes but has been on the sidelines for much of it because of the prevailing fast ground.
That's a worry again on Sunday – as well as his current form - and there are too many question marks at this stage to have him high on the shortlist.
Conclusion
The cases for Minnie Hauk and Aventure are obvious and both deserve their place towards the head of the market but this is an Arc without an obvious standard-setter and at the prices I’m happy to take a chance on DARYZ and GIAVELLOTTO.
They are different types and at different stages of their career but the former produced a very taking effort when second behind Croix Du Nord, is an improving three-year-old and could well be stepping up to his optimum trip for the first time on Sunday.
We know all about Giavellotto but despite winning a valuable pot in Hong Kong and beating what at the time was the then-Arc favourite Kalpana at Kempton, remains a big price.
He’s battle-hardened, tough, stays well and relishes a fight. He might not have the class of one or two of these but they won’t want to eyeball him inside the final furlong and he looks overpriced if the weather forecasts are correct.
Updated at 1300 BST on 03/10/25
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