Punchestown Festival preview: Course guide and key statistics
The preparation for the Punchestown Festival starts here with Timeform's in-depth guide, featuring all the key facts and figures.
Timeform's Punchestown course guide
A right-handed, galloping, undulating track with a steady climb through the last five furlongs. It is a very fair test of a jumper; there are 11 fences to a circuit which are not stiff by British standards and they pose few problems to sound jumpers. The cross-country course is a long and twisting one over a variety of banks and other obstacles, few of which are jumped more than once. The turns are both left- and right-handed and only the final brush fence is on the racecourse proper.
Leading active jockeys at Punchestown (all meetings)
Sorted by strike rate in the last five years (minimum 20 rides)
- Patrick Mullins 28.37% (40-141)
- Jamie Codd 22.64% (24-106)
- Paul Townend 21.37% (50-234)
- Robbie Power 17.70% (40-226)
- Derek O’Connor 17.48% (18-103)
Other points to consider
- Paul Townend is the most successful jockey at the Punchestown Festival since 2017 with 16 winners from 78 rides, operating at a strike rate of 20.51%. Townend has partnered eight Grade One winners at the Punchestown Festival during that period, including four at last year’s meeting when he had just nine rides in total after returning from a foot injury.
- Robbie Power and Patrick Mullins are next best behind Townend among the most successful jockeys at the Punchestown Festival since 2017. Power has partnered 15 winners from 70 rides at a strike rate of 21.43%, while Mullins has partnered 14 winners from 54 rides at a strike rate of 25.93%.
Leading active trainers at Punchestown (all meetings)
Sorted by strike rate in the last five years (minimum 20 runners)
- Willie Mullins 22.80% (166-728)
- Nicky Henderson 18.18% (4-22)
- Martin Brassil 16.90% (12-71)
- Enda Bolger 16.81% (19-113)
- Brian McMahon 15.62% (5-32)
Others points to consider
- Willie Mullins is by some way the most successful trainer at the Punchestown Festival since 2017 with 57 winners from 347 runners, operating at a strike rate of 16.43%. Mullins broke his own record for the most winners at a single Punchestown Festival when winning 19 of the 40 races run at last year’s meeting. That tally included nine of the 12 Grade One races run at the meeting in 2021.
- Nicky Henderson has done well from a small sample of runners at the Punchestown Festival since 2017. Henderson has saddled four winners from 21 runners at a strike rate of 19.05%, returning a profit of 39.38 points at Betfair SP. O O Seven caused the biggest shock when winning a valuable handicap chase at a BSP of 30.
Running style
The tactical advantage front-runners have in any given race, both on the Flat and over jumps, should never be underestimated. For example, if you had backed every horse who recorded a Timeform EPF (Early Position Figure) of 1 in British/Irish steeplechases since the start of the 2016/17 season, you would be operating at a strike rate of 22.95% and celebrating a profit of over 7,000 points at Betfair SP.
By contrast, the statistics tell us that backing hold-up horses simply doesn’t pay in the long run. Horses who recorded an EPF of 4 (towards rear) in British/Irish steeplechases during the same period have a strike rate of 8.04%, while horses who recorded an EPF of 5 (in rear) have performed worse still with a strike rate of just 5.60%.
- Timeform EPFs range from 1 to 5 and help to explain where a horse was positioned during a race. An EPF of 1 is recorded by a horse who led and an EPF of 5 is recorded by a horse who was held up.
It’s worth pointing out that these figures can vary drastically from one course to the next. At one end of the spectrum there is the steeplechase track at Kempton Park, where front-runners have a strike rate of 31.30% since the start of the 2016/17 season, and at the other end there is the steeplechase track at Downpatrick, where front-runners have a strike rate of just 9.65% for the same period.
When looking at the overall data, Punchestown appears to have more in common with Kempton than it does Downpatrick. For context, front-runners have a strike rate of 24.38% in all steeplechases run at Punchestown since the start of the 2016/17 season, once again faring much better than horses who recorded an EPF of 2 (15.08%), 3 (7.59%), 4 (3.32%) or 5 (2.64%).
Similarly, front-runners have performed best in races over hurdles at Punchestown since the start of the 2016/17 season with a strike rate of 15.60%. Horses who recorded an EPF of 2 were again next best with a strike rate of 12.99%, while horses who recorded an EPF of 3 (5.92%), 4 (3.35%) or 5 (2.56%) have continued to struggle by comparison.
Punchestown Gold Cup trends
Since 2000 unless specified otherwise
- Age – 18/21 winners of the Punchestown Gold Cup were aged nine or below. The only exceptions were Florida Pearl (2002), First Gold (2003) and Carlingford Lough (2016), all of whom were aged 10.
- Grade One form – 15/21 winners of the Punchestown Gold Cup had previously won a Grade One over fences. 11/21 had already won a Grade One over fences that season, including Kicking King (2005), War of Attrition (2006) and Sizing John (2017), all of whom completed the Cheltenham Gold Cup/Punchestown Gold Cup double.
- SP – 17/21 winners of the Punchestown Gold Cup were sent off at single-figure odds. Kicking King (11/8-on in 2005) is the shortest-priced winner, while Follow The Plan (20/1 in 2011) and China Rock (20/1 in 2012) are the longest-priced winners. The average SP of the winner is 5.6/1.
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