The French Oaks is the big race at Chantilly this afternoon and our in-form timefigure expert analyses the upcoming action.
The fourth classic of the French Flat season, the Prix de Diane, or the ‘French Oaks’, takes place at Chantilly this afternoon and has attracted twelve runners on ground that is likely to ride faster than the official ‘bon souple’ - or soft. The last two Diane winners Sparkling Plenty and Blue Rose Cen both ran in the first fillies' classic of the season, the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches, and given five of the runners today ran in that race too, the Pouliches looks the logical place to start.
The highest placed of the quintet at Longchamp reopposing here was Shes Perfect, who passed the post first but was demoted to second after being deemed to have hampered the original runner-up and hot favourite Zarigana, though there was just a length back to third-placed MANDANABA with Better Together close up in fifth, Bedtime Story another two and a half lengths back in sixth and Merrily a long way back in last place.
The first thing to remember when picking apart the Pouliches was that despite it being run in a race record time, it wasn’t run at an end-to-end gallop with the winning time reflective of fast conditions aided by a following wind. In the circumstances, the promoted winner Zarigana, who runs in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot next week, probably did very well to win at all given the task she’d been set, worth a 4lb upgrade over Shes Perfect by my calculations once their respective last 600m sectional times are compared to par, but whether Shes Perfect can confirm placings with the others, even assuming she stays, remains to be seen given she was best placed of the quintet throughout the race, making the running on the rail.
Mandanaba, who raced in third place for much of the trip at Longchamp after breaking best, is bred to be a much better filly over middle distances than she is a mile and arguably did very well at all to finish third in the Pouliches given she was dropping back in trip after winning the G3 Prix Vanteaux over 1800m on her reappearance where she had another Diane runner Gezora, a filly who signed off 2024 with a win in the G3 Prix des Reservoirs at Deauville and left her Vanteaux form behind when winning the G2 Prix Saint-Alary next time, well held back in third.
Better Together, who'd won the G3 Prix Imprudence on her reappearance, was one of just four fillies – Zarigana, Bedtime Story and subsequent G2 Prix de Sandringham winner Godspeed were the others - who ran the final 600m in under 36 seconds so is worth upgrading too, and shapes as if the longer trip ought to be within reach under new Juddmonte retained rider Colin Keane.
Bedtime Story is very intriguing given her close relative Content took off when finally put over middle distances last year. Like Content, Bedtime Story ran in the Chesham, but far from finishing third as Content had done, won it by nine and a half lengths in an outstanding 110 timefigure. Bedtime Story’s subsequent career has arguably been something of an anti-climax, but she ran the final 200m at Longchamp faster than all except Zarigana from a hopeless position after being restrained in rear pulling hard, and it should’t be forgotten either that she ran the third fastest last 200m in the Prix Marcel Boussac last season just 0.07 seconds behind Zarigana having been dropped out in last place from the worst of the draw. It might well be that having won so well over a stiff seven furlongs so early in her career Bedtime Story needs a lot further than the distances she has been racing over but she’s drawn the outside stall again
Mandanaba’s stablemate Cankoura has won three of her last four races and might well have won the other too despite the shorter trip (the 1600m listed Prix des Lilas, won by Ed Walker’s American Gal who reopposes here) had she not been short of room for much of the straight, just pushed along into a never-neared fourth when it was clear she wouldn’t get involved. By Persian King and a half-sister to Candala who finished eighth in this race last year, she ought to be effective at this longer distance.
Zia Agnese hasn’t been seen since winning the G3 Prix Cleopatre so is something of a forgotten horse in that respect, but she’ll do well to get away with the soft front-running tactics she employed that day in this stronger race. Sand Gazelle looked pretty much the same filly as subsequent Oaks sixth Revoir in the listed Childwickbury Stud Stakes at Newbury last time, so can’t be ruled out, but now Bedtime Story’s odds have shortened notably, I’m siding with Mandanaba.
I like the fact she’s improved her form despite being dropped back in trip while taking on stronger company on every run when her pedigree says she should be stepping up in trip, being by a Coronation Cup winner out of a Prix Vermeille winner, and her forward-going style ought to mean she won’t have any excuses.
Before dealing with the other races of interest on a card that also includes the Qatar Derby for Arabian breds, I’ll scoot through the two races that don’t appeal from a betting perspective. The first is the G3 Prix du Bois, a two-year-old contest over 1200m that has attracted five runners, including two from the Karl Burke yard in the shape of Hilary Needler runner-up Meelaf and Lily Agnes winner Ali Shuffle. Burke won the race last year with Arabie but his two fillies are up against two home-trained colts whom two have already proved themselves at the trip and the other, Imperial Me Cen, who has twice looked good in victory including in a listed race at Vichy last time but like the two fillies hasn’t raced beyond 1000m.
This looks a bit tight to call, as does the G3 Prix Bertrand du Breuil, a contest over 1600m restricted to horses who haven’t won at the very top level this year. As might be expected, it has attracted something of a ragbag of runners, some of whom are on their way down like the former French 2000 Guineas winner Marhanba Ya Sanafi, others who are on their way up, such as Zabiari who has gone forward since joining Francis Graffard from Jean-Claude Rouget and others such as Point Lynas, Fort Payne, Make Me King and Fast Raaj who have been trotting the international stage or who are just downright inconsistent. No bet in either for me.
However, the two other elite races on the card, the listed 2400m Prix Pawneese for older fillies who haven’t won a Group race this year, and the three-year-old only G3 Prix du Lys over the same trip do make plenty of appeal from a betting perspective.
Twelve go to post in the Pawneese, giving the race an open look on paper, but I’m not sure that many can be fancied. Five of them ran in the same race last time, the Prix Gold River over 2800m at Longchamp, with Agile faring best of the quintet despite being set a ridiculous amount to do, as is often the case under her usual rider Marie Velon, and though she was clearly the best of the five that day those tactics aren’t going to help her dropping down in trip unless the pace is good as it was when she won handicaps at Chantilly and Longchamp last summer.
All the same, she’s arguably better than ever despite being six and ought to be thereabouts. Whether she’s quite good enough to beat MME JOURDAIN and British challenger Chorus remains to be seen, however.
Mme Jourdain has the best form splitting as she did last time out 2024 Arc runner-up Aventure and Grand Stars who admittedly didn’t get a clear run for much of the straight that day but still ended going on to finish second to Goliath in La Coupe at Longchamp last week. She might have only finished sixth in a similar event there on her seasonal reappearance but that disguises what a good run it was, held up a long way off the steady pace before running the final 600m around three lengths faster than anything else.
Chorus is taking a drop in grade having contested the G3 Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock last time when no match for the classy filly Estrange but still finishing a respectable third, well clear of the rest, and ahead of two fillies who’d shown useful form previously. The likelihood is she’s still improving but so is Mme Jourdain who looks to have the edge to me and is the bigger price.
The Prix du Lys matches up proven form in the shape of RAFALE DESIGN, who won the G3 Prix Hocquart last time out, against potential in the form of Surabad, who represents the powerful Francis Graffard stable, Croquis, who finished second to Surabad two starts back before winning at Toulouse. We also have Hotheaded, who is by Frankel and won his only start so far going away by four and a half lengths, plus Oracle, who has been first and second on his only starts so far.
Hotheaded is sure to be well backed given he’s trained by Andre Fabre but I’m not quite sure what he beat at Saint-Cloud, and I’d prefer Oracle who was second to last week’s impressive listed winner Daryz on his latest run when not getting the clearest of passages but showing a tendency to flash his tail when out in the open.
He ought to be suited by the step up to 2400m, but he’ll have to improve some more to beat Rafale Design who sets a fair standard. A big, stuffy sort, he left his debut form well behind last season, winning twice at Deauville, and did the same again this year when winning the Prix Hocquart last Longchamp last time after finishing fifth in the G3 Prix Noailles on his reappearance. He settled that steadily-run race with a smart turn off foot, will be at least as effective at this trip being out of a Montjeu mare and it looks significant that the horse he beat that day, Asmarani, has been given an entry in the Queen’s Vase on Wednesday. Christophe Soumillon retains the ride and current odds around 4/1 look acceptable.
Last weekend’s G3 Prix Paul de Moussac saw a very smart performance from Maranoa Charlie, whose win arguably put him at the top of the list of the male French three-year-old milers, at least for now.
Whether he’s have scored has my fancy Selenien not been withdrawn we’ll never know, but he showed a level of form (117) that Selenien has yet to match, so would be entitled to start favourite should the pair meet in the next month or so, which they might well at Deauville in the Prix Jean Prat over the same 1400m trip in the first week of July at Deauville, when I still fancy the trip will suit Selenien better.
Selections
1pt win Mandanaba in 15.05 Chantilly at 7/2
1pt win Mme Jourdain in 16.25 Chantilly at 100/30
1pt win Rafale Design in 17.00 Chantilly at 4/1
Published at 0930 BST on 15/06/25
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