Our French expert with his best bets for Saturday's card at ParisLongchamp.
Graeme North French racing tips: Saturday October 3
1pt win Fairy Glen in 15:25 at ParisLLongchamp at 12/1 (Betfair & Paddy Power)
It’s finally Arc weekend and this is the first of two previews covering Saturday and Sunday. The inside rail is out significantly on Saturday which will need factoring in if you intend assessing race times, and given that the winning times on Arc Trials Day four weeks ago were all the fastest in their respective races for numerous years and there has hardly been any rain since, I’m expecting the ground to be good to firm whatever the official going stick might say.
The card opens with the Prix de Chaudenay, a Group 2 over 3000m (just short of 15 furlongs, or it would be if the rail was on its inside line) for three-year-olds. Pierre Bonnard is the horse with the best form by some margin and his trainer Aidan O’Brien won this two years ago with Illinois who came in off a similar preparation having had his previous start in the St Leger and the one before that in the Great Voltigeur.
Whereas Illinois finished second in the Leger, Pierre Bonnard finished sixth but would have been much closer had he not met so much trouble in running. Given Illinois had upwards of 10lb in hand of his rivals and started at 4/10 before winning by two lengths, the even-money available about Pierre Bonnard looks plenty fair enough given he has a similar amount in hand on form too.
Of the others, Victoire Magique, who like Jabracadabra, is trained by former Newmarket resident Amy Murphy, was beaten three-and-a-half lengths by Space Waltz in the steadily-run Prix du Lys at Chantilly on French Oaks Day but beat him by a length in the Prix Gerald de Geoffre (the traditional French trial for this race) last time when making more use of his stamina. Admittedly, that was Space Waltz’s first race since finishing fifth behind Maltese Cross in the Grand Prix de Paris and he might have been undercooked whereas Victoire Magique had continued his improvement at Deauville in between.
Jabracadabra had finished only a length-and-a-quarter behind Grand Prix de Paris fourth Varandir in the Prix Hocquart in May and won a Listed race at Craon last time. That wasn’t a strong race, contested largely by exposed older horses, but he was strong at the finish, promises to be well suited by this much longer trip and finished much closer to Varandir than Space Waltz did. Winday didn’t cut much ice in the Doncaster Cup last time, but it was interesting he was sent off as short as 6/1. He gave himself little chance after becoming a real handful in the preliminaries and losing his tongue strap but now finds himself at another big occasion tried in blinkers.
The second Group race of the day is the Prix Dollar over approximately a mile-and-a-quarter and features the first of four horses in the Group races on the card who won the equivalent race last year. It’s First Look in this instance, but the field he faces here looks better than the one he beat in 2025 and it’s questionable whether he’s quite as good now as he was then.
The second winning post will be in action here too, meaning the straight is longer than usual, putting more premium on stamina, and that might be an issue for both Seagulls Eleven and Distant Storm who have yet to race beyond a mile. Seagulls Eleven gets respect as a course winner but dual Guineas placed Distant Storm is arguably the more likely of the pair to be suited by the longer distance and will relish the fast ground as he did at Deauville in the Prix Daphnis last time out when half the field looked to find conditions too fast.
Wimbledon Hawkeye is the best of the older horses, having had First Look over two lengths back in third when winning the Prix Gontaut-Biron at Deauville in August before finishing a cigarette-paper second to Hotazhell in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. That form is around 6lb better than Juddmonte International fifth Zaydaan has shown, but the interesting improver is three-year-old Phineas who has won all four of his races this season with the most impressive of them coming last time out in the Prix du Prince d’Orange which he took by three-and-a-half lengths easing up. A late developer he relished the fast ground that day and had some good horses behind including Nitoi and Daryzan, and still looks open to more improvement.
The fifth race on the card is the Haras De Bouquetot, a contest over a mile or thereabouts for two-year-olds sold at the Arquana Sales. Unsurprisingly with such a limited pool of potential participants, the quality isn’t especially high and only four of the 15 runners have Timeform ratings of 90 or higher.
Cape Orator was a standout on form in this race last year and obliged at odds of 41/10, but there’s no such frontrunner this year. Master Man (96) won another of these Arquana Sales races at Deauville, when having Keskaviel (92) back in fourth, and followed that with second in a Listed race at Lyon last time.
Flying Spur (90+) looked promising earlier in the season but has plateaued out since unlike Moon Sand who made a mockery of opening handicap mark in a nursery in Ireland last week and faces a quick turnaround under much faster conditions with Pierre-Charles Boudot booked and a middle draw in eight. George Cross (86p) Astabuen (82p) and I Will Be King (83p) are three British raiders open to improvement; Astabuen, whose form ties in with horses rated in the low 90’s, might be the best of that trio despite not having won a race yet.
The three other Group races on the card are the Prix de Royallieu, the Prix du Cadran and the Prix Daniel Wildenstein, and it seems worth spending least time on the Cadran as it has attracted the season’s leading stayer Scandinavia who has won his last eight races. Five of those eight have come in Group 1 company, with his wins in the Gold Cup and the Goodwood Cup this year being some of the best at marathon distances in the past decade or so, and he’s 10lb in hand on form over stable-companion Queenstown, who seemed to show a fair bit of improvement last time when second behind him in the Irish St Leger, and Caballo De Mar who won this race last year and is 2-2 at the course having won the steadily-run Prix Victomtesse Vigier in May.
Why I'm taking Sunly on
The Royallieu, the other Group 1 race on the card, has attracted eleven runners, including last year’s winner Consent. The French usually do very well at their biggest meeting of the year but oddly haven’t won this race since 2017, which might be playing on the mind of connections of the favourite Sunly who was pulled out of the Arc earlier this week as owners Juddmonte Farms rely on Kalpana.
The winner of three races last season, Sunly has been successful just once this time around, in the Group 3 Prix Allez France in May, but her form is better than it was in 2025 and she looked unlucky in the Prix Vermeille last time behind Arc-bound Friendly Soul, nearly on her nose out of the stalls, getting hampered early in the straight then finishing strongly.
According to the official tracking data, the interpretation of which I’m not always inclined to trust wholeheartedly in France, Sunly ran the last 600m 1.32 seconds faster than Friendly Soul in a race which produced some slow finishing fractions yet finishing speeds suggest wasn’t truly run. Defeats in between behind Aventure in the Prix Corrida and Calandagan in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud shouldn’t be held against her, not least in the Corrida where she got a poor ride in a steadily-run race, but for a filly who is as short as she is, has yet to try the trip and whose rider Colin Keane for me still hasn’t grasped the nuances of race riding the Parisian tracks, I’d be keen to look elsewhere at bigger odds.
Consent ran her best race since 2025 when third in the Park Hill last time out, but the filly that beat her three lengths then, Waardah, reopposes here and also had her measure the time before in the Lillie Langtry at Goodwood where another of today’s runners Santorini Star was second. Santorini Star, who was second in this last year having previously won the Park Hill, was second in the Vicomtesse Vigier earlier this year but ran a rare modest race at Deauville last time.
FAIRY GLEN is more versatile than most mares and after finishing fifth in the Victomtesse Vigier (got into the race well from the back then lost a couple of places in the final strides after briefly looking the winner) was second in the Listed John Musker at Yarmouth over a mile-and-a-quarter last time which wasn’t a bad effort considering she was set more to do than the first and third at a trip short of her best on the back of a long break.
Students of striding data wouldn’t have her on their minds give her fast turnover and short stride length but she is what she is and beat Caballo de Mer fair and square at Meydan in the two-mile Dubai Gold Cup earlier this year when running down the runner-up from further back. This slightly intermediate trip might prove her ideal and she looks overpriced at 12/1.
The final 2025 winner attempting a follow up in the same race is Ridari in the Prix Daniel Wildenstein. He was trained by Mikel Delzangles when successful last year but two changes of trainer later and he doesn’t seem like the same horse this year, comments which apply also to another of his rivals Fallen Angel who this time last year was winning the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes but hasn’t come within 10lb of that form this year.
Another former Group 1 winner Qirat has held his form much better, if all his efforts since his shock Sussex Stakes win have confirmed he’s not a proper Group 1 horse, but all that notwithstanding his best form still gives him a good shout here for all he was only seventh behind Ridari in this last year.
The other horse from that contest turning up again here, and arguably at the top of his form, is Quddwah. He was beaten only a short head last year after being headed close home but has won three of his five starts this year, including the Solonoway Stakes last time after almost six months off the track. A draw in stall 2 promises to be ideal for this strong traveller who tracks the pace and Mikael Barzalona won’t have the ground-covering issues he was forced to endure the only previous time he rode him in the Abu Dhabi Gold Cup earlier this year and which ultimately cost him his chance.
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