Our French expect takes a look at all the big-race action at ParisLongchamp on Saturday.
ParisLongchaamp Saturday selections
0.5pts win Alcantor in 15.25 ParisLonchamp at 4/1 (General)
0.5pts win Ridari in 15.25 ParisLonchamp at 7/1 (General)
‘Wisdom comes easily after the fact’, so the saying goes.
Undoubtedly, there will be many punters come Sunday evening rueing missed betting opportunities at the two-day Arc meeting because of facts either underestimated or knowledge not taken the time to seek out or investigate more closely.
Hopefully this column won’t be among that horde, but as things stand, previewing the first of two days well ahead of the opening action, there’s much that is still uncertain.
For example, the state of the ground (officially ‘bon souple’ or ‘soft side of good’ as I interpret it but which could change depending on how much more rain rolls in (conditions looked to be deteriorating a little at Saint-Cloud’s Friday afternoon meeting) as well as rail movements which hadn’t been made public at the time of writing but if previous years are any example, will add considerable distance to all races on Saturday (but not Sunday when the rail will move back to the inside line).
12.23 Qatar Prix Chaudenay
The first pattern race of five on the day (excluding the Arabian race) is the Group 2 Prix Chaudenay over 3000m for three-year-olds.
Seven go to post and in the years since the race came back to Longchamp in 2018, it has required a Timeform performance anywhere between 109 and 116 to win it and has been won four times by British-based trainers, twice by French-based trainers and once by an Irish trainer.
The only runner to have already reached that level this season is Tennessee Stud who won the Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his sole visit to France last year and has hit the frame in all four races this season, including the Derby where he came from well off the pace to finish third and the Prix Niel last time out where he set a steady pace somewhat bizarrely on the quickest ground he’s encountered before being swamped for speed.
That was his first run for ten weeks and he comes here with his stable in the best form it has been in all year, sending out as many winners in the last three weeks as there have been days, but this trip is an unknown and he’ll ideally want as much rain to fall as possible given his profile and notably round action.
The only other two runners within hailing distance of him on form are Espoir Avenir and Surabad. The former was much improved when winning the Group 3 Prix Gerald de Geoffe here in August, showing a smart turn of foot to beat the reopposing Emit easily in contrast to the laboured effort he’d put in at Vichy in on slower ground the time before, while Surabad started the year off well, winning a listed race here and then finishing second to Rafale Design in the Group 3 Prix du Lys, but has beaten just two rivals since, albeit though good enough to have contested the Grand Prix de Paris.
Tennessee Stud has the best credentials for sure, but 6/4 doesn’t appeal.
12.58 Qatar Prix du Cadran
The second Group race is the 4000m Prix du Cadran, a race which has been the domicile of Kyprios and Trueshan in recent years with no home-based horse having been successful since 2019.
France supplies two runners this time, Coetzee and Sacred Spirit. The well-bred Coetzee hasn’t made the progress I thought he would at one stage and probably won’t be good enough even if he stays, but Sacred Spirit comes here on the back of wins in calmer waters at Clairefontaine and Saint-Cloud and has some form last year that suggests he isn’t far off the best of these. Like Coetzee, however, stamina is the big question as it is for several of these.
Sunway, who arguably has the best form, showed he stayed two miles in the Goodwood Cup but was well held in the even-longer Doncaster Cup last time; Alsakib is a winner at a mile and three quarters but has been well held the two times he has tried two miles; Queenstown ran well in the Irish Cesarewitch last time out but seemed to find Newmarket’s Cesarewitch beyond him in 2024 while the steadily-run Chester Cup second Caballo De Mar might have won the German St Leger last time but that race was run at an even slower gallop than the Chester Cup had been.
That leaves Coltrane and Tashkan as the proven stayers. Coltrane was third in this in 2024 but doesn’t look quite so good this season, while Tashkan’s best days are more markedly behind him and managed only a distant third in this in 2022. Coltrane looks the safest solution for all he’s not the most reliable betting proposition these days.
14.50 Arqana Series - Haras de Bouquetot Criterium d'Autome Stakes
It's not a pattern race, but the Class 2 Arqana Series Haras de Bouquetot for two-year-olds makes plenty of appeal from a betting perspective as most of the field appear to have a mountain to climb on form.
British or Irish-based trainers have won five of the last seven renewals and supply eight of the 17 runners this time around. Those paying attention to the effect of the draw in recent renewals will have noted that six of those seven renewals have been won from a single-figure stall, but, in fact, four of those six came from stalls nearer the outside than the inner.
The two horses with the best form for me are Cape Orator and Isaac Newton. Cape Orator won a similar event to this at Deauville in August with a strong finish and was unsuited by the steady pace and sprint finish the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster turned into last time out.
Isaac Newton won a strongly-run maiden at Goodwood last time despite looking green still (re-opposing Evanesco was back in second) and had the now Timeform 106-rated Action behind him in third when runner-up on his Curragh debut in July.
Both will be suited by the step up in distance, and look to have more going for them than the home-trained Segall, who flopped when a hot favourite for the Group 3 Prix des Chesnes las time out but had earlier won at Saint-Cloud by four lengths, or the unbeaten Inis Mor whose latest win at Newmarket under a penalty hasn’t exactly worked out well.
River Card, who had two subsequent winners behind him when winning at Ascot last time out and for whom Mickael Barzalona is an interesting jockey booking for a yard who are always to be respected with their French runners, is interesting among those at bigger prices. No prices were available at the time of writing but anything equal to or bigger than 3/1 about Isaac Newton would appeal.
15.25 Qatar Prix Daniel Wildenstein
Next up is the ten-runner Prix Daniel Wildenstein over 1600m and a competitive affair it is too with just 7lb separating nine of the ten on Timeform ratings with the lowest rated of them being, oddly enough, Qirat, the only one of the field this year to have scored in Group 1 company when he won the Sussex Stakes as the intended pacemaker for Field Of Gold.
Joint top on ratings are Quddwah and Alcantor. I had an early fancy for Quddwah at big prices for the Prix du Moulin last time out before his price contracted significantly but the fast ground caught him out for the second time this season and he never threatened, so it will pay to watch the earlier races if you have an interest in backing him.
Considering he has done all his winning on ground Timeform have called good or softer, ALCANTOR ran very well to finish over four lengths in front of Quddwah in the Moulin under an enterprising ride and seems the one most likely to take the field along as he did when winning the Prix Perth last October and the Prix Edmond Blanc this spring despite the widest stall and the presence in the field of Skukuza, who won a listed race at the Curragh in June under such tactics, as well as Dreamliner who started off his career from the front but has looked much improved in his last two races under more patient tactics.
RIDARI is a horse I’ve long held in high regard and while he’s not straightforward, he split Quddwah and Alcantor when the former had a very soft rail trip in the steadily-run Prix Messidor at Chantilly in July and both he and Alcantor ended up with too much to do.
Mickael Barzalona is back on board after Cristian Demuro took the mount in the Prix Jacques le Marois last time, interestingly choosing him ahead of stablemate Zabiari who he’d elected to ride in the Marois. 4/1 and 7/1 look decent prices and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing either (or both).
16.00 Qatar Prix de Royallieu
12 go to post for the Prix de Royallieu over 2800m, six of them four or older and the other half dozen three-year-olds. The younger generation have won four of the six runnings since the distance was increased by 300m in 2019 and four of those wins have been shared between the Gosdens and William Haggas with French-based trainers suffering a washout.
That statistic doesn’t bode well for best-on-form Survie who was seventh in last year’s Arc and who has yet to try this trip having had three of her four winless races this season at 2100m or less.
Sea Silk Road won this in 2023 for William Haggas having not raced beyond a mile and a half previously, but she’d been running as if a step up in trip would suit unlike Survie and Haggas runs this year a proven stayer like his other winner Sea La Rosa in the shape of Santorini Star who was a game winner of the Park Hill last time out from the slightly unlucky and re-opposing Consent.
The Gosdens rely on Shaha who hasn’t been seen since May when easily swatted aside by Estrange in the Pinnacle Stakes, but she beat Scenic on her reappearance so shouldn’t be troubled by the absence and shaped well on her final start in France last year.
Latakia looks progressive but has beaten the same horse in her last two starts, Le Combat Continue, a filly who wouldn’t be good enough to get involved here, while Indalimos beat Consent last time but had a clear run while Consent met all sorts of trouble.
Bedtime Story has been shaping as if this trip will be well within bounds and could well show improvement now she’s partnered by Christophe Soumillon (who won this last year in the same colours) for the first time. A repeat of second place in the French Oaks or third in the Prix Vermeille (where she came from well behind Survie and still beat her) ought to be good enough against this weaker company and 4/1 (9/2 in several places) might be a fair price if the ground doesn’t soften up too much. We’ll know more about that come Saturday afternoon.
16.35 Qatar Prix Dollar
Brian Meehan’s Coventry winner Rashabar has form figures of 222 in his three races to date in France and bids to go one better in the final Group race of the day, the Prix Dollar.
The intermediate 1950m trip promises to be ideal for the horse who was left for dead by Arc hopeful Aloha Aali in the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano at Deauville last time, but this is highly competitive and he looks to have the same chance on form as all of 2024 French Derby second and recent Prix Gontaut-Biron winner First Look, Strensall Stakes winner King Of Cities, whose form last time was boosted by Boiling Point in the Cambridgeshire, and Prix Niel runner-up Bay City Roller, with next to nothing in hand either of 2024 Guillaume d’Ornano fourth Bright Picture (who won her reappearance in August as easily as she was entitled to) or Dante runner-up and recent French listed winner Damysus.
Uthred looks an imposing sort who might well end up best of these but that will surely be next year and over a longer trip too, so he can be overlooked here and I’m finding it hard to pick one out. 7/2 the field looks a fair reflection of just how open this is.
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