Expert opinion from Timeform

Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup: Timeform's Phil Turner on Fact To File's win

By Phil Turner

Horse Racing

Tue February 03, 2026 · 2h ago

Timeform's Phil Turner reacts to Fact To File's DRF win and counts down the years to the Willie Mullins Irish Gold Cup.

The annual Irish invasion at the Cheltenham Festival as we know today can be traced back to the late-1940s, when Vincent O’Brien began his domination of the National Hunt scene.

Between 1948 and 1959, O’Brien notched up four wins in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (including a hat-trick for Cottage Rake) and three in the Champion Hurdle (all supplied by Hatton’s Grace), plus a further sixteen successes in what was then a three-day meeting – which included a remarkable ten wins during a seven-year period in what is now the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (then the Gloucestershire Hurdle and run in two divisions). He also saddled three successive Grand National winners in the mid-1950s for good measure!

It was fitting, therefore, that Ireland’s first level-weights championship event for staying chasers was named in honour of O’Brien when introduced in 1987, even though the legendary trainer was by then far better known for his exploits on the Flat having switched codes full-time in 1960.

Ironically, the inaugural running of the Vincent O’Brien Irish Gold Cup came at a time when the balance of power lay firmly on the other side of the Irish Sea. Although Ireland had landed the Queen Mother Champion Chase and Cheltenham Gold Cup in 1986, those winners Buck House (colic) and Dawn Run (fatal fall in France) both met with premature ends merely months afterwards and their absence would be felt for some time to come, particularly as a struggling Irish economy meant most of the brightest equine talent was sold abroad.

1987 Vincent O'Brien Irish Gold Cup Chase

Although famous Irish names such as Royal Bond, Daring Run and Bobsline contested the 1987 edition, all three were firmly in the veteran stage by then (Royal Bond would finish a remote third twelve months later when a fifteen-year-old!) and the home team’s main hopes rested on the novice Barrow Line, a full-brother to Bobsline but, in truth, never really in the same league as his illustrious sibling.

Instead, it was the three British raiders who dominated - outsider Cybrandian was still going strongly at head of affairs when unseating five out, which left the way for short-priced favourite Forgive ‘N Forget to run out an impressive eight-length winner from his main market rival, the David Nicholson-trained Very Promising.

That proved a portent of things to come, with British yards responsible eight wins from the first nine renewals of the Irish Gold Cup, including further one-twos in 1988 (Playschool and Forgive ‘N Forget) and 1993 (Jodami and Chatam). Even that solitary Irish winner, the crack novice Carvill’s Hill in 1989, ended up in British hands – he was sold for big money and in the care of Martin Pipe when claiming his second Irish Gold Cup win three years later.

It has been much thinner gruel for raiding parties since then, with The Listener (2008) and Neptune Collonges (2009) the only subsequent British-trained winners – indeed, there have been just nine UK runners since that 2009 win, the veteran Tidal Bay (runner-up in 2014) the only one of them to even reach the frame.

There have now been no British runners in the last four renewals, although Rebecca Curtis was readying stable star Haiti Couleur for a tilt at the race until Storm Chandra scuppered her travel plans (anyone who’s had to drive from South Wales and North Wales will understand why Curtis opted not to explore an alternative ferry from Holyhead!)

Timeform's top-rated chasers in training

Despite that unfortunate absentee, there was no lack of quality in the latest Irish Gold Cup, which saw six chasers go into a race with a Timeform rating of 165 or above – the second time that has occurred in 2025/26 after the John Durkan Memorial at Punchestown back in November.

Naturally much of the pre-race build-up centred around Galopin des Champs (c171), who was bidding for a record-breaking fourth straight win in the race. The ten-year-old typically gave it a good go from the front, though didn’t have any obvious excuses in having to settle for minor honours again (he’s yet to finish outside the first three in nineteen completed chase starts) and the early signs suggest he may not be quite the force of old this season.

Instead, it was the two principals from the aforementioned John Durkan who again came out on top, albeit in a different order as Fact To File (c174) comprehensively reversed those placings with old rival Gaelic Warrior (c172).

It was only a third win from Fact To File’s last eight starts, though the manner of each those success does lead one to question how he ever loses?!? As in last year’s Ryanair Chase, he made everything look very easy in a fiercely-run race which brought his main qualities into play – namely a high-cruising speed and an assured jumping technique.

Monday's race provided a markedly different test to the King George VI Chase at Kempton and appeals as the more reliable piece of form, though Boxing Day victor The Jukebox Man (c168p) clearly still warrants respect having finished in front of both Gaelic Warrior (close third) and Fact To File (never-dangerous sixth) that day.

As things stand, The Jukebox Man and Fact To File won’t be having a rematch at the Cheltenham Festival as the latter hasn’t been entered for the Gold Cup, connections presumably keener to defend his Ryanair Chase crown.

All of that could change, however, as JP McManus himself showed last year when shelling out £25,000 to supplement Inothewayurthinkin (c?) for the Cheltenham Gold Cup at the six-day stage, a decision rewarded by his six-length defeat of Galopin des Champs. Alas, Inothewayurthinkin hasn’t shown anything like that form in three starts since and, even allowing for his tendency to come to life in the spring, must be viewed as a doubtful runner to defend his crown on the back of today’s latest lacklustre display - which could leave an opening for Fact To File to step in.

Fact To File wins the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup

Whatever race Fact To File ends up in, it promises to be another stellar Cheltenham Festival for his trainer Willie Mullins, who is posting the sort of numbers (113 wins and counting) Vincent O’Brien might have amassed had he concentrated on the jumps instead of the Flat for the final 35 years of his career – despite Ethical Diamond’s Breeders’ Cup heroics, there is no sign of Mullins turning his back on the jumps!

Mullins, like O’Brien in the 1950s, usually has an embarrassment of riches when it comes to novices and has so far entered an eye-watering fifty-two horses for the 2026 Festival novice or juvenile races, two of whom will be very hard to beat at Cheltenham judging by their dominant wins earlier on today’s Leopardstown card.

Doctor Steinberg (h147p) maintained his 100% record over hurdles with an impressive eight-length defeat of Kazansky (h138p) in the Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy Partners Solicitors Novices’ Hurdle, doing remarkably well to put so much distance between himself and the rest having failed to settle on heavy ground.

All in all, Doctor Steinberg looks to possess the perfect blend of speed and stamina which will make him an ideal sort for the Baring Bingham at Cheltenham as opposed to the longer Spa Hurdle forty-eight hours later, a race that the stoutly-bred Kazansky could prove a live contender in.

Meanwhile, Narciso Has (h142p) looks to hold excellent claims of providing Mullins with a fifth straight win in the Triumph Hurdle judging by a professional all-the-way display in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle, again shaping like one who’ll relish the slightly longer trip at Cheltenham.

Given his many record-breaking achievements, it surely won’t be long before Mullins emulates O’Brien in race titles too - as Fact To File was his 15th win in Monday's big race, The Willie Mullins Irish Gold Cup seems a safe bet at some stage….

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