Andrew Asquith, Ben Linfoot and David Ord answer the key questions ahead of Saturday's Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham.
Meetmemythesea is favourite – does he deserve to be?
Andrew Asquith: Meetmebythesea has attracted plenty of support in recent days following some bullish quotes from the trainer and he was impressive when winning the novice handicap at the Cheltenham Festival when last seen. He proved very progressive as a chaser last season, and he’s just the type who will continue improving this season, so he deserves to be towards the head of the betting, but he does look a little short to me for a race of this nature.
Ben Linfoot: I’d say so. If you’re a layer you have to urge on the side of caution with a horse with this type of profile in this sort of race. He’s an impressive Cheltenham Festival winner and just might be a graded horse, so a mark of 151 might not stop him if he’s fit and ready and things go his way. That’s not to say I’d back him at 7/2, as I wouldn’t. I’d take him on every time and if he’s good enough you doff your cap and move on.
David Ord: I wouldn't be rushing to back him at 7/2. Clearly he thrived over fences last season but is 12 pounds higher than when winning the Jack Richards and is pitched in against some experienced gunslingers at the weekend. He's the one in the race with the potential to breakthrough at a higher level but he'll need to cherry-ripe and find that improvement at the first attempt to defy a mark of 151.
Who is the pick of the Dan Skelton trio?
BL: I know the owner has come out and said he might not run if the ground is too quick but Madara has an awful lot going for him. Another Festival winner, loads of good course and distance form, a very satisfactory hurdles prep and you would think the cheekpieces will be back on too. A 12lb higher mark than his Festival success asks questions but I wouldn’t swap him for either of the other Skelton runners.
DO: Unless there's a dramatic change in the weather forecast I think they'll run Blueking d'Oroux in preference to Madara with Riskintheground as the second string. If that's the case the former is very much the go-to cotender for the champion trainer and looks a huge player too. He'll relish the forecast conditions and a mark of 148 looks perfectly workable on the pick of his novice chase form from last season.
AA: From a handicapping perspective it is Blueking d’Oroux, who tops Timeform weight-adjusted ratings. He was beaten a neck by Teddy Blue on his sole outing in a handicap over fences last season and went on to finish an excellent second to Koktail Divin in the Grade 1 Manifesto Novices’ Chase on his final start. He’s since made the switch to Dan Skelton, who has a knack for getting more out of horses, and he looks potentially well treated from a 7lb higher mark than his previous handicap start.
Any outsiders taking the eye?
DO: Passing Diamond has been making hay while the sun shines this summer but could well be getting his ground again at the weekend. If he does he's a bold jumping, front-runner who may out-run odds of 33/1. He won his first three over fences and improved again, dropped to two miles, when second to Bowensonfire at the Showcase Meeting. He was giving the BHA 143-rated winner eight pounds that day and while he's five pounds higher than when winning at Hexham in October, he's thriving and hard fit.
AA: I particularly like the look of Norn Iron. He finished last season in excellent form with back-to-back wins at Sandown and a very good second in a competitive handicap at the Punchestown Festival. Connections have decided to come here fresh (he was a non-runner over hurdles at Chepstow last month) and he’s open to further improvement as a chaser this season. Odds of 20/1 look interesting.
BL: I can’t see myself having a penny on him as I just don’t think he jumps well enough, especially in a race of this nature, but I’ve always thought Guard Your Dreams might have a big one in him at this track if he finally puts it all together over fences. He’s 10 now so the chances he’ll do that are becoming slimmer by the day but he’s well-handicapped on his best form and he’ll love the ground. Maybe I’d stick him in a Placepot with at least three others!
Finally which horse is currently towards the top of your shortlist?
AA: The aforementioned two of Blueking d’Oroux and Norn Iron have to be pretty high, but both would probably like the ground to be on the softer side. There is rain forecast and Cheltenham continue to water, so hopefully both are allowed to take their chance.
BL: It looks an open race and I’ll probably change my mind five times before Saturday, but I’m warming to the claims of July Flower. She ran well in the Grade 1 novice at Punchestown in the spring and on that evidence this track and trip could be ideal, she goes well fresh and she won at this meeting last year. With Henry de Bromhead’s horses in good nick she has plenty going for her but, unless Meetmebythesea is a Grade 1 horse, it does look very open indeed.
DO: Paul Nicholls could make history this weekend by passing Martin Pipe's record for most UK jumps winnners and might just win a fifth Paddy Power Gold Cup. Because Quebecois has to be a leaidng player. He's still a maiden over fences but already has some top handicap form to his name including when second in the Timeform Novices' on Trials Day and third in the Ultima. He's had a pipe-opener over at Newton Abbot, is only two pounds higher than at the Festival and will do for me.
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