Betfred Oaks preview

Oaks tips: Horse by horse guide and Value Bet shortlist for Matt Brocklebank


Our man outlines his thoughts on the potential runners in Friday's Betfred Oaks before mapping out a four-pronged shortlist.


Horse-by-horse guide

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Be Happy (Aidan O’Brien)

Looked to be crying out for this trip, not only in two starts last year but also on seasonal debut in French Group 3. Got her chance in the Lingfield trial earlier this month but was again done for speed (by Eternal Hope) after it developed into a bit of a mad scramble from the home turn. A true test at the distance could bring about serious improvement in this daughter of Camelot and no surprise if she’s up there from the outset, but it’s going to take a leap of faith.

Boogie Woogie (Aidan O’Brien)

Has had plenty of goes now but that alone shouldn’t put anyone off an O’Brien-trained three-year-old filly. By Dubawi out of Irish Oaks winner Seventh Heaven, there’s plenty of stamina in her pedigree and I won’t be reading too much into her well-held effort on bad ground in first-time cheekpieces at Longchamp last time out as it was plan-B after Lingfield was switched to the all-weather. Second to Savethelastdance in a Leopardstown maiden at the start of the season and not without hope of playing some sort of role here if the new distance sparks something positive.

Bright Diamond (Karl Burke)

Merited a shot at the Lingfield trial on account of her promising juvenile form including a third in the Fillies’ Mile. The dam stayed this trip and it’s hard to be certain whether or not she saw it out after her first go turned into a relative sprint. No doubt still capable of a bit better yet, and the yard could hardly be going much better, but perhaps the Ribblesdale would be a better fit.

Caernarfon (Jack Channon)

Progressed quite markedly at two and put her experience to good use when landing a Listed race at Newmarket in October, handling the soft ground better than most too I suspect. Beaten 10 lengths in the 1000 Guineas on her comeback but ran on pleasingly for fourth there and strongly suspect she’ll improve for 10 furlongs at some point. This trip looks a bit of a push though, and the ground is going to be lively enough for her.

DELETE

Dance In The Grass (Charlie Johnston)

Went off 200/1 for the 1000 Guineas on her seasonal return and looked to be running accordingly at halfway before finding her stride in the final furlong and a half. A well-held fifth there, it certainly gives connections a platform on which to build and, given her best form as a juvenile came on quick ground at Sandown in July, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her put up a bold show as her dam won at 1m4f the grand-dam (Shadow Dancing) was third in this back in 2002.

Eternal Hope (Charlie Appleby)

Supplemented for this after one or two of her stablemates have failed to come up to scratch so far this spring. She, however, only made her debut in February this year and showed how far she’s come in such a short space of time when beating Be Happy in the Lingfield trail on the AW earlier in the month. Her turn of foot looked to play a big part that day so perhaps a truer test at the trip will ask a difficult question. Reasons to be hopeful she can improve again but priced up quite defensively all things considered.

Heartache Tonight (David Menuisier)

Yet to step foot on a British racecourse which is intriguing in itself and she appeared to have improved with every start in France, winning once at two and running well in defeat when upped to Group level earlier this year. Her half-sister Wonderful Tonight found loads more for the step up to a mile and a half and a true test around here could really suit. Would presumably prefer a softer surface in an ideal world.

Jackie Oh (Aidan O’Brien)

Lightly-raced daughter of Galileo from Ballydoyle which is enough to set off all the usual alarm bells and she’s not done much wrong to date, just done for a touch of speed late on in Navan Listed race last month. Longer trip and better ground here should hold no fears after running well in Sunday’s Irish 1,000 Guineas at the Curragh.

Maman Joon (Richard Hannon)

Has a striking pedigree and price-tag to match, while her belated debut effort in a Newbury maiden last month offered a huge amount of encouragement in the grand scheme of things. Whether she’s immediately going to be thrown into Classic company must be in some doubt, though, and she’ll surely need a touch more experience before missing at the highest level.

Red Riding Hood (Aidan O’Brien)

Four starts and yet to run a bad race but not operating at quite the same level as some of her stablemates. Chances are she’ll improve significantly once granted a step up to this 12 furlong trip but the first-time blinkers didn’t seem to work when third in a Naas Group 3 last time and she’s still got some growing up to do by the looks of it.

Running Lion (John & Thady Gosden)

Not looked back since finishing fourth on debut last summer and made it four on the spin since then when readily accounting for eight rivals in the Pretty Polly at Newmarket over Guineas weekend. Evidently going places – and fast – but there’s a strong 10-furlong whiff about her pedigree and connections seemed quite cool on her prospects of getting the mile and a half in the immediate aftermath of her HQ romp. Hard to shake that off, especially now she’s pretty short in the market.

Savethelastdance (Aidan O’Brien)

Good luck to those who are on at big prices after she won her maiden at Leopardstown in early-April as the subsequent success in the Cheshire Oaks has understandably seen her price shorten dramatically. She’s no longer a betting proposition here and it’s quite tempting to look for a value alternative especially as her superiority in Cheshire was seemingly exaggerated by the very soft conditions. Nothing to suggest she won’t handle a better surface here, though, and her claims are blindingly obvious in what looks a winnable Classic at this stage.

Where are we now with the Betfred Derby?
Where are we now with the Betfred Oaks?

Sea Of Roses (Andrew Balding)

Officially rated 100 after the four starts now and she’s not quite come up to Classic standard in her two starts as a three-year-old, seemingly kicked into touch by Soul Sister in the Musidora at York last time. Could be happier over this longer distance but she’d be a shock winner and certainly not one I’ve seen coming.

Soul Sister (John & Thady Gosden)

Fascinating rival to Savethelastdance and hard to argue with the market in that she looks the most likely to topple the Ballydoyle favourite on the back of an eye-opening, four-length win in the Musidora at York. Had floundered in soft ground over seven furlongs on her seasonal comeback but that target in itself indicates she must show plenty of speed at home and the big question now is whether she can deliver that potent change of gear shown on the sound surface on the Knavesmire at the end of a lung-busting Classic over 12 furlongs. Mixed messages in the pedigree but not hard to envisage her staying, being a daughter of Frankel, but those doubts will linger if playing around the 11/4 mark.

Warm Heart (Aidan O’Brien)

The Ribblesdale was mentioned in the immediate aftermath of her Newbury trial success over 10 furlongs so has to be in some doubt as to whether she runs here first or not. Must be tempting to roll the dice as she’s improving hugely with experience, as you’d expect for a Galileo three-year-old, and she seemed to love the better ground when beating another really nice prospect (Bluestocking) last time. Has a cracking attitude and would not be without a shot of winning this if given the opportunity.


Value Bet shortlist

Click here for Sky Bet odds and offers

  • Warm Heart 10/1
  • Heartache Tonight 22/1
  • Dance In The Grass 25/1
  • Boogie Woogie 33/1

There's a reasonable each-way look to this year's Betfred Oaks with Savethelastdance prohibitively priced on the back of her soft-ground stroll at Chester and the next two in the betting, stablemates Soul Sister and Running Lion, looking potentially suspect stayers.

Eternal Hope isn't guaranteed to get a truly-run mile and a half here either despite winning the Lingfield trial which turned into a sprint for the line.

Charlie Johnston's Dance In The Grass could easily improve on her Guineas effort now granted a stiff test and much better ground (providing the forecast is right), while the well-bred Heartache Tonight is a potential curveball for David Menuisier and she's another who could sprout wings on her first run over the trip.

The two for O'Brien who appeal at the prices are Dubawi filly Boogie Woogie, who was second to Savethelastdance before winning her maiden at Naas, and Warm Heart, who showed that Galileo iron will to beat the well-regarded Bluestocking in the Newbury trial recently.

It's hard to know for sure whether Warm Heart will run in this but I don't see why not and if given the go-ahead she'll become a serious betting proposition as she looks to have a fine attitude and plenty of scope for further progression over middle-distances.

Published at 1530 BST on 28/05/23


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