John Ingles looks at some of the shock results at the Festival in recent seasons and the biggest one of all in the 1990 Gold Cup.
Jeff Kidder 80/1 – 2021 Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
There has been at least one winner sent off at 33/1 or longer at each of the last eight Cheltenham Festivals. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, therefore, if that sequence is maintained this March, though of course pinpointing which outsider will cause an upset in which race is another matter entirely. But speaking as a veteran of many an in-house Timeform tipping competition during Festival week, you can almost guarantee that someone will find it! The one to be on in 2021 was Jeff Kidder who became the longest-priced winner at the Festival this century when winning the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at 80/1. He was a first Festival winner for his jockey Sean Flanagan but his trainer Noel Meade was no stranger to causing upsets at the Festival, with his five previous winners including Very Wood, 33/1 winner of the Albert Bartlett in 2014.
A big-field handicap of unexposed four-year-olds makes the Boodles/Fred Winter more ripe for an upset than most Festival races. Since its inception in 2005, it has had two winners sent off at 40/1 and a trio at 33/1. A maiden on the Flat, Jeff Kidder had won at Fairyhouse earlier in the season but went to the Festival after finishing last at 50/1 in Grade 2 company at Leopardstown and only crept into the Boodles at the foot of the weights. But he relished the strongly-run race at Cheltenham and stayed on well once leading soon after the last to deny the Willie Mullins-trained favourite Saint Sam by two lengths. Far from being a fluke, Jeff Kidder went on to better things and completed a hat-trick at the Punchestown Festival later that spring in the Champion Four-Year-Old when causing another surprise at 22/1.
Minella Indo 50/1 – 2019 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
If only we knew then what we know now. Minella Indo went on compile an excellent record at the Festival, not only winning the Gold Cup in 2021 but finishing second in the same race a year later having also been runner-up in the RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase. But all that was in the future when Minella Indo lined up at 50/1 in the 2019 Albert Bartlett. While he was a winning pointer, he was still a maiden under Rules for Henry de Bromhead – the only one in the twenty-runner field - having been placed in his sole bumper and in both his previous starts over hurdles. Like the Boodles, the Albert Bartlett already had a reputation for unexpected results, with Berties Dream and Kilbricken Storm, in addition to Very Wood, having been 33/1 winners earlier in the decade, while Stellar Story won at the same odds last year.
A well-run race over a stiff three miles is often a new test for Albert Bartlett runners and the increased emphasis on stamina enabled the strong-staying Minella Indo to leave his previous form behind. Indeed, he turned the tables on one of the better-fancied runners Allaho who had beaten him at Clonmel on his previous start, having that rival back in third as Minella Indo stayed on strongly in the straight to win readily. Like Mindella Indo, his jockey too would go on to make more of a name for herself at subsequent Festivals as Rachael Blackmore had only broken her Festival duck earlier in the week on stablemate A Plus Tard. Another interesting footnote to the 2019 Albert Bartlett was that runner-up Commander of Fleet, sent off favourite that day, caused a 50/1 shock of his own in the Coral Cup three years later.
Lisnagar Oscar 50/1 – 2020 Stayers’ Hurdle
But it turned out that Commander of Fleet wasn’t the only beaten horse in the 2019 Albert Bartlett who would go on to cause a surprise on a return visit. Back in fifth was the Rebecca Curtis-trained Lisnagar Oscar who was sent off third favourite having won his last couple of races, including a Grade 2 novice at Haydock last time out. He didn’t show the same form in the Albert Bartlett and after that first visit to Cheltenham won only once in his remaining 19 starts but picked the right day to come good when winning the follow season’s Stayers’ Hurdle at 50/1. In the meantime, he had been tried over fences, while a lacklustre effort back over hurdles that was followed by a heavy fall on his next start were less than encouraging efforts. While Lisnagar Oscar did seem to excel himself, also at 50/1, when third in the Cleeve Hurdle prior to the Festival, he received a good tactical ride in a steadily-run race and faced a stiff task turning the tables on winner Paisley Park on worse terms in the Stayers’ Hurdle.
The Cleeve was Paisley Park’s seventh win on the bounce, and he was sent off odds on to win the Stayers’ Hurdle for the second year running. But he wasn’t the only leading contender to disappoint, with second favourite Apple’s Jade running herself into the ground in first-time blinkers and the 2018 winner Penhill pulling up lame after an early blunder. That left a trio of outsiders to fight it out, with Lisnagar Oscar, who paid £85.70 on the Tote, getting the better of Irish pair Ronald Pump and Bacardys and yielding a colossal tricast of £28,381.06! The Stayers’ Hurdle is more susceptible to the odd shock than the Festival’s other championship contests; A Kinsman had been another 50/1 winner in 1983, Anzum was successful at 40/1 in 1999 and Sire du Berlais won at 33/1 two years ago.
Eglantine du Seuil 50/1 – 2019 Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
A scenario which can produce an upset is when a stable’s apparent first string fails to deliver. Willie Mullins had won the first three editions of the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle with well-backed favourites but seemingly lacked a stand-out candidate for the 2019 renewal. Ruby Walsh opted for My Sister Sarah among the stable’s seven runners but she was only third choice in the betting behind future Champion Hurdle winner Epatante and Posh Trish, representing Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls respectively. But with none of the fancied mares involved in the finish, the first seven places were taken by runners sent off at odds varying between 25/1 and 100/1.
Among them was another of the Mullins septet Eglantine du Seuil, unconsidered at 50/1 following a six-month absence, having made a successful debut over hurdles at Sligo and then run a good third behind a pair of useful male rivals at Listowel. It was her even longer-priced stablemate Concertista, a 66/1-shot, who led over the last in the Dawn Run after Eglantine du Seuil still looked to have a mountain to climb turning for home, but she made relentless progress in the straight and found plenty to get up by a short head. She was a final Festival winner for her jockey Noel Fehily who retired shortly afterwards. Fehily had also ridden the 50/1 winner of the 2008 County Hurdle, Silver Jaro.
Norton’s Coin 100/1 – 1990 Cheltenham Gold Cup
While there has been no shortage of recent upsets, the biggest shock in Festival history remains Norton’s Coin’s victory at 100/1 in the 1990 Gold Cup. His victory was all the more remarkable for coming in chasing’s blue riband where the form of the best chasers is usually well established beforehand and where surprises are few and far between – there have been only two winners this century at longer than 10/1.
In addition, Norton’s Coin was up against the previous year’s winner Desert Orchid who was sent off at a shade of odds on in his bid to win the race again in front of a record crowd. ‘Like anyone else I though Desert Orchid would win,’ admitted Sirrell Griffiths, who trained Norton’s Coin and two others on his dairy farm near Carmarthen, after the race. ‘Milking the cows this morning, I worked out that with a bit of luck we might be third.’
Even that seemed an optimistic assessment of Norton’s Coin’s task, given that his other main rivals included dual Welsh Grand National winner Bonanza Boy, the up-and-coming Toby Tobias and Irish Gold Cup winner Nick The Brief. Most of all though, he had 39 lengths to make up on Desert Orchid from the King George earlier in the season in which Norton’s Coin had finished a tailed-off last of six. Even if he was seemingly not up to Gold Cup class, Norton’s Coin had won three of his last four races the previous season and did at least have a good record around Cheltenham, winning the Silver Trophy Chase there after finishing second at the 1989 Festival in the Cathcart Challenge Cup to a 66/1 winner, Observer Corps.
Conditions were exceptionally quick at the 1990 Festival – Timeform called the going on Gold Cup day ‘firm’ – and they ended up breaking Dawn Run’s record time for the race. Desert Orchid made most of the running but it was clear going to the final fence that he wouldn’t be repeating his victory of twelve months earlier. By that stage, Toby Tobias was narrowly in front, but the patiently-ridden Norton’s Coin jumped it well too and overhauled him on the flat to win by three quarters of a length with Desert Orchid another four lengths back in third and the other finishers well beaten. The only recent horse to have gone close at triple-figure odds at the Festival is Affordale Fury. Interestingly, he was beaten just a length into second two years ago at 150/1 in a race that we’ve already singled out for its unpredictable nature, the Albert Bartlett, and for none other than Jeff Kidder’s trainer Noel Meade.
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
