Northern racing: Lincoln fallout and look ahead to Grand National Festival at Aintree

The Grand National has been an obsession for me for as long as I’ve been into racing.

I barely have a more vivid memory of my early years than watching Amberleigh House’s Grand National back in 2004, settled with my cousins in the back room of the pub across the road from my parents' house. Obviously, I can’t claim to have had any idea what was going on, but it was the first time racing emerged into my consciousness. We watched the National the year after, and then the year after that. It became tradition for my brother and I to pick a couple of horses for my old man to go and back on the morning of the race, and then we’d watch it, whether live or straight after football.

As I got towards the end of primary school, even more sport-obsessed than before, I’d begin to remember names of unlucky losers, horses coming back year after year, recognising the likes of Ballycassidy, Clan Royal, Simon and Idle Talk.

I knew I found horse racing entertaining. I liked trying to pick winners, even if at this point it was on names - try telling a seven-year-old boy that Shotgun Willy isn't hilarious - and colours. It probably helped that Racing Replay was a more engaging watch at breakfast than sailing or squash, whatever had been relegated to the early morning slots on the Sky Sports channels, but soon I’d be just as happy to watch a horse race as I would have been to watch a game of football.

So, there’s no way I’d be doing what I do now without the Grand National and there’s no way I’d know the names of Lean Ar Aghaidh and Big Brown Bear, Spittin Image and Andy Pandy, horses whose racing careers were over some time before I was born and otherwise, I’d have no right to have heard about.

That to me is the beauty of the Grand National - no other race can you write your name into folklore without winning, without even competing.

It’s the day in the calendar I’ve always looked forward to most and yet, I feel flat heading into this year’s race.

I know I’m not the only one. I wrote about the changing shape of the modern Grand National after the entries came out in early February and concluded that, even as someone who’d edge towards the purists' side of the fence, that a handful of mid-140 rated staying handicappers missing out on a place in the field wasn’t the end of the world if it helped ensure the long-term existence of the race.

As the weeks have gone on, though, I’ve begun to feel as if those thoughts are a shade generous, albeit I’m still not quite at the point of calling it the “Woke National”. The vibe, the essence of the Grand National, whatever it is, is something immeasurable and it’s something I can’t help feeling has been diminished to a now unrecognisable degree after the latest raft of adjustments.

It’s not baying for carnage to want the race to provide a unique test; more rivals to beat, more fences to negotiate, more furlongs to run.

The enforced non-participation of Mr Vango (yes, I know he’s ground dependant), probably the most archetypal Grand National “type” in this season’s group of entries, is probably the most striking case study of a race that no longer benefits your honest Saturday staying handicapper.

There isn't a winner of the National Hunt Chase, the Welsh National, the Scottish National, the Grand National Trial, the Eider or the Becher in this season’s expected field; but there is Hitman, there is Bravemansgame, there is Fil Dor and there is Appreciate It, all dubious stayers whom I’d price as likelier to pull up than win the race.

I'd never be one to call for a cap on owner or trainer participation, but the increasing trend of top yards essentially sticking deteriorating former Grade 1 horses into the race, surely more out of desperation than expectation, leaves a bit of a sour taste with spaces at the tape at even greater premium. It'd almost be glib to suggest that the easiest way for a smaller yard to have a runner in the line-up is to buy something discarded by one of the super-stables - as has been the case this year with Richard Phillips and Michael Keady - but in my formative racing years I remember the likes of Keith Reveley, Charles Egerton, Bob Buckler and Victor Dartnall all having genuinely fancied representatives at Aintree. It added something.

I still don’t see why the changes to the course couldn’t have been made without slashing more than an eighth of the field and it would be foolish to conclude that the job regarding safety, so widely praised after last year’s incident-free race, is done on the back of just one running; the six renewals after the introduction of the plastic core in 2013 were all clean, yet barely half a decade later the race was deemed too unsafe again.

I mentioned in that post-entry piece that I Am Maximus has raced over fences 12 times. He has been given an “x” by Timeform on seven occasions. The reigning Grand National champion is not just a horse prone to the odd lapse, his jumping is unequivocally the biggest weakness in his game. It's such an absurd notion to have even considered in the recent past, but I've not yet heard one case made against a horse in this season’s race regarding their jumping.

There's clearly less of a distinction now between a good racehorse and a good Grand National horse, so I’d expect shocks in the race to become few and far between and I don’t think it makes anyone who regrets a lack of romance in the modern race a barbarian.

I’m sure I’ll still have butterflies as they line up anyway. Touch wood we find the winner, and touch wood they all come back safe and sound. A proper storyline would just be a real bonus.

WHAT’S HAPPENED

We’ll start with what’s most important. Tuco won three in a row. We’ll get back to that later.

The Lincoln remains one of the best days out in the calendar, and despite Baltic temperatures, it really did feel like spring on Town Moor.

NORMAN’S CAY’s Brocklesby success wasn’t quite as striking as that of the same owners’ Persian Force three years ago, but the son of Sioux Nation posted an effort well up to scratch for a winner of Britain’s first juvenile event and perhaps could even be said to have been learning on the job rather than one fully drilled for the day.

DANCING GEMINI went winless in a three-year-old season that saw him tried at Group 1 level on four occasions over a variety of trips but there shouldn’t be any further doubt as to what looks his optimum conditions, producing the most impressive performance of the day in the Doncaster Mile. A return to the top level is surely on the cards for Roger Teal’s colt, though, you’d anticipate he’ll follow in the footsteps of last year’s winner Charyn by making the trip to Sandown later this month.

The other listed winner on the card – Cammidge Trophy victor SPYCATCHER – doesn’t quite hold as many realistic Group 1 aspirations but should continue to hold his at minor Pattern level this season, though I wouldn’t rule out the same for runner-up IBERIAN, who remains completely unexposed as a sprinter and has a defeat of Rosallion in the Champagne Stakes as the pick of his juvenile form. Provided he doesn’t continue to hang as badly as he did at the weekend, he’ll surely land a couple of good races this campaign.

The punting wasn’t great from my side; Liberty Lane beaten on merit and James’s Delight suffering some interference but essentially not good enough on the day. In the feature race, those with extra places might’ve skimmed some minor each-way returns courtesy of sixth-placed MIDNIGHT GUN and I’d still remain positive about Hamad Al Jehani’s four-year-old for top mile handicap given he raced without cover into the strong headwind.

The ITV cameras also very cruelly clocked us amongst the premature celebrations for OLIVER SHOW, who was even more cruelly denied success in the Lincoln by the late flourish of GODWINSON. Oliver’s owners – the Pompey Ventures syndicate – are headed by a pal of mine, but I’m sure I’d find them an easy outfit to root for even without having enjoyed an afternoon on track in their company.

They’re a top set of young lads and all are seriously good thinkers about the game, Oliver Show himself being a prime example – a £30k buy from Sir Michael Stoute who has already taken them to Bahrain and returned well over £100k in prize money. Of course, it was a pretty heartbreaking result to go down in such a historic race by such a narrow margin – especially after being called the winner by the on-course commentator - but finishing runner-up in the Lincoln was cause for a couple nevertheless, so it was back to Horse & Groom in Armthorpe ahead of their TUCO SALAMANCA’s hat-trick bid at Newcastle later in the evening.

Things were far more straightforward for Tuco, the result never in a moment’s doubt and though of course, the main enjoyment was on a personal level – there’s nothing better than celebrating a winner with your mates - it was made sweeter still by his position in this season’s Timeform Fifty To Follow (available to buy etc etc). He was the lowest-rated horse in the book by some margin, perhaps a bold call to opt for one rated 53p at the expense of others with loftier targets but has already more than justified his addition with three wins and a rating 36 lb higher.

There’s a clip on my Twitter of some of the post-race merriment and trust me, the lads stayed on cloud nine for a fair while after. Somehow, it's been described as “an advert for getting a young bunch of mates into racing” and though I’m not sure the BHA or Great British Racing would be looking to grow the game by having an absolute rabble going ballistic at a TV screen in Doncaster, I can promise that it'd work for me more than any directed marketing campaign - with or without Jermaine Jenas - ever could.

Some Saturday out.

WHAT’S HAPPENING

So, the world’s most famous steeplechase takes place this Saturday coming. And whatever form the National takes, it’s still a task to find the victor.

Until a couple of weeks ago, my idea of the winner was Inothewayurthinkin, another of this season’s ante-posts bets in the bin before declarations. I get it, of course, as to why connections have decided not to run, but I’m still gutted we won’t get to see the Gold Cup winner attempt this once-in-a-generation double.

There won’t be anything too speculative from me this time around – I learned my lesson from backing both Dunboyne and Deise Aba in 2023 – and despite him having already broken my heart, I’m sticking with Gavin Cromwell.

His pair STUMPTOWN and VANILLIER would be my two against the field, both of course arriving after fine prep runs in the Cross Country at Cheltenham.

I doubt I’ll tell anyone reading this anything they don’t know about either horse, but the former looks tailor-made for Aintree, his form in good handicaps over regulation fences enough to give him an each-way squeak even without the significant improvement he’s found for tackling cross-country events. He was still extending at the finish over 3m7f last time and possesses enough tactical speed to think the stop-start nature of the modern shouldn’t inconvenience him.

Vanillier should’ve got closer still to Corach Rambler when a fast-finishing runner-up in the race from this same mark two years ago and has seemed rejuvenated by the application of blinker on his last two outings, barely out of first gear when thrashing Coko Beach over the Punchestown banks in February before arguably shaping as well as Stumptown when third behind his stablemate at the Festival after Sean Flanagan came close to taking the wrong course.

Elsewhere at Aintree, LIFETIME AMBITION has the benefit of Rob James in the Foxhunters’ and took like a duck to water to the course on both previous visits, so would be my pick arriving on the back of two wins in points, whilst I’d still consider GREY DAWNING a shade underrated and think he’ll confirm himself as the best staying chaser in Britain by landing the Bowl. Thursday’s bets are completed by SANS BRUIT, who hasn’t really kicked on from his win in the Red Rum last season but has slipped back to that last winning mark and could well get a soft lead again.

On Friday, WRECKLESS ERIC is an obvious one upped in trip in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle, whilst I hope ALNILAM can go one better than in the Morebattle in the concluding conditionals event.

Good luck everyone.

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