Newmarket, York and Chepstow tips: Best value bets for Friday October 13

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Value Bet tips: Friday, October 13

1pt win Danny Kirwan in 1.35 Chepstow at 6/1 (General)

1pt win Tenerife Sunshine in 2.40 York at 22/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

1pt win Westerton in 3.35 Newmarket at 12/1 (General)

1pt win See The Fire in 4.10 Newmarket at 9/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, BoyleSports)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Champ to come out all guns blazing

Heavy rain through the night and well into Friday could have a major impact at Newmarket, York and Chepstow, with all three tracks staging ITV4 action, but no doubt it’ll be music to the ears of the jumps mob, not least champion trainer Paul Nicholls.

He’s got a strong team lined up for the two-day meeting at the Welsh venue, headed by Champion Bumper third Captain Teague in the feature Unibet Persian War Novices’ Hurdle.

The German recruit Panjari – twice a Listed winner on the Flat for previous connections – is no less fascinating on his hurdling debut a little later on, while Ioupy Collonges looks decidedly well handicapped on chasing debut in the three-mile novices’ handicap.

DANNY KIRWAN is backed to get the ball rolling on what could be a bumper day for Nicholls when he resumes in the Unibet Veterans’ Handicap Chase at 1.35.

This has been one frustrating horse throughout most of his career, but he’s not got many miles on the clock and it looks highly significant he’s been kept in training at Ditcheat for precisely this sort of contest.

First time out appears a decent time to catch him too as he was second to an in-form Annual Invictus on his comeback at Cheltenham a couple of years ago and probably ran the race of his life when splitting Our Power and Tea Clipper in Ascot’s London Gold Cup on seasonal debut 12 months back.

Danny Kirwan has slipped back to precisely the same mark as at Ascot, has undergone another summer breathing operation which is no bad thing at his yard, and has won all on types of ground in the past too so shouldn’t mind the forecast rain, despite one or two previous suggestions that he needs a sound surface.

Lightly-raced three-year-old to shine in York rain

It’s usually wise to run for cover when it comes to Charlie Johnston’s horses if the heavens have opened, but he’s got three in York’s William Hill Finale Handicap, all of which could be fine on the ground.

The really interesting one at the prices is TENERIFE SUNSHINE, who is bred to cope with a bit of give underfoot and actually started out on easy enough ground at Goodwood last August.

After winning a Rowley Mile maiden (good) three weeks after that introductory run, he was tried in the Group 3 Zetland Stakes on this Saturday’s HQ card 12 months ago, which must give an indication into the regard in which he’s held.

The son of Lope De Vega clearly suffered a setback or something as he wasn’t seen again until this August, when powering home late to win a Kempton handicap over a mile and three furlongs, a race which featured the reopposing - and dual subsequent winner - Urban Outlook back in fourth.

Tenerife Sunshine went back to Newmarket last month and wasn’t unfancied (13/2) off a 5lb higher mark but he wasn’t suited by the way the race was run, beaten six and a half lengths in the end having never been able to challenge as the front two effectively had it between them throughout.

He’s down a pound here, up another couple of furlongs in trip which looks likely to suit, and should get a far more truly-run race given there are about half a dozen in here who likely to get on with it up front.

Tenerife Sunshine is still a bit green but he’s surely also still the right side of the assessor and, at the odds, I’ll happily take a chance on him in the likely worsening conditions.

See the light and back Balding's bright prospect

I don’t find day one of Newmarket’s Dubai Future Champions Festival all that bet-inducing to be perfectly honest but can’t resist a dart at the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile where Shuwari bids to get back to winning ways.

She wasn’t seen to best effect when a running-on second behind Carla’s Way in the Rockfel here late last month but while that effort - together with her half-length defeat of subsequent Moyglare winner Fallen Angel at Sandown in July - sets the standard on that form, there are others here open to any amount of improvement.

Michael Bell’s Ambiente Amigo is one of them and connections have secured the services of Frankie Dettori which speaks for itself, while Classical Song looks another on a real upward curve.

However, if you like Ralph Beckett’s filly around 3/1 then the 8/1 - and 9/1 in three places - about SEE THE FIRE is borderline no-brainer as she beat Sandown runner-up Beautiful Love by slightly further on the July Course here on her racecourse debut.

Andrew Balding’s daughter of Sea The Stars was, unusually for that stable, pretty well backed first time out and she duly delivered despite drifting left under pressure in the final furlong.

She has since been made to settle for second behind Darnation on softer ground in Doncaster’s Group 2 May Hill Stakes (replay below), but the progress made from first to second start was considerable and, having got the mile trip well enough, she looks the type to take another massive leap forward here.

She’s bred to be a top-notch performer, being out of Juddmonte International winner Arabian Queen, and it’s hoped Oisin Murphy returns to the more prominent tactics used by David Probert on this horse’s debut as Murphy’s hold-up ride at Doncaster last time looked as much about teaching her to settle and bringing her on again mentally as it did maintaining the unbeaten record.

We now know she handles some cut underfoot and, despite some support since final declarations, she still looks a big price here all things considered.

Go West for Rowley Cup profits

The other one to be on at Newmarket is WESTERTON in the bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap.

Granted, he’s gone up 7lb to a mark of 100 for getting beat at Doncaster last time out which isn’t a great start but he’s been a big improver throughout the year despite only winning the once and I reckon we’re getting an inflated price on account of the fact that his worst run of the campaign came the only previous time he’s run over this mile and a half trip.

However, I’m perfectly happy to excuse that run as he ended up racing down the centre of the track at Goodwood which had already turned to an absolute bog despite it being the first race of the afternoon.

I simply refuse to judge Westerton on that performance as plenty of others beaten on barely raceable ground at that meeting this year have come out and won since.

This one almost joined the crew at Doncaster last month, when beaten a neck by Marco Botti’s Maximillian Caesar, who had previous been second to the wildly-progressive Cambridgeshire runner-up Greek Order at Newbury.

Westerton, dropping back to 10 furlongs on Town Moor, boxed on bravely in defeat, the pair of them coming eight lengths clear of the rest, and I reckon his latest hike in the weights is perfectly justified.

He’ll be grand whatever the weather and looks a rock-solid improver, who may even jump a hurdle one day.

Published at 1600 BST on 12/10/23

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