2024 bet365 Craven Meeting: Newmarket notes
Classic quality: Dance Sequence (3.55 Newmarket, Wednesday)
All the rage for the 1000 Guineas in recent weeks and has to be winning the Nell Gwyn if she's going to justify the support.
Dark horse: Ambiente Friendly (2.25 Newmarket, Wednesday)
Still quite raw when bumping into subsequent Group 1 winner on final run at two and likely to improve at lot this year.
Handicap hero: Benacre (2.55 Newmarket, Tuesday)
Caught the eye in recent all-weather run, doing best of those up with the pace, and he's well handicapped now.
Best caught fresh: Spycatcher (3.00 Newmarket, Thursday)
Has a fantastic record first time out after a break and trainer Karl Burke will be pleased to see rain is expected.
Theme of the week: Godolphin back with a bang
Tough year for Charlie Appleby last season, but early signs are ominous and hard to keep a good man down. Expect the winners to flow.
Appleby can set the tone, but big Ben the bet
Showers in the forecast for all three days of the bet365 Craven meeting but we start out on ground described as ‘good, good to firm in places’ for Tuesday’s bumper eight-race card – the concluding seven-furlong handicap having been divided.
There’s some more tinkering to the schedule too with the five-furlong British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes – which used to be the second race after the Alex Scott Maiden, and the Wood Ditton in earlier years – kicks off the card this season and not one of the two-year-olds has any previous racecourse experience.
The betting market will inevitably have its say but the team at Timeform have run the numbers based on a whole host of criteria including pedigree, foaling date, sales price, trainer/jockey stats and have - perhaps unsurprisingly - come out with the Godolphin pair of Al Qudra and Hallasan on top with ‘Predictive’ ratings of 96 and 90 respectively.
Al Qudra – the mount of James Doyle – is an interesting one being a 425,000 guineas Tattersalls Book 1 purchase. The son of Coolmore stallion No Nay Never is out of five-furlong two-year-old winner Piece Of Paradise, who has a German 1000 Guineas winner in her pedigree, and no doubt he’ll know his job. He’ll need cover from stall one, mind, especially if they come more towards the stands’ side rail.
They are racing on the ‘far side course’ all week at Newmarket, with the stalls in the centre throughout, but at this time of year if often pays to be drawn among the higher numbers and the lowest gate can make things tricky, even in a seven-runner field.
William Buick – who has won this event three times in the past seven years including twice for Appleby, who himself hasn’t had a runner since last winning it 2020 - has presumably opted to ride Hallasan, the first runner for first-season sire Pinatubo, on whom Buick won three Group 1s.
Hallasan is out of Bahamian Bounty mare Fig Roll, making him a half-brother to Al Raya, who was a speedy juvenile for the Crisfords in 2019 (finished fifth in the Queen Mary).
Stall six may be a touch more favourable for Buick too, and with Appleby clearly out to hit the ground running (40% strike-rate in past two weeks) after a disappointing 2023 on the whole, Hallasan is the obvious favourite. No shock then if it’s normal service resumed for the boys in blue in the opener.
The fly in the ointment may be Bretton Wood for trainer James Owen – who is back in Newmarket this year – and the Gredley Family. He’s a Frankel colt out of Pretty Pollyanna, who made a winning debut before going on to Group 1 glory as a two-year-old in France.
Elsewhere on day one, it’s unusual for John and Thady Gosden not to have a runner in the Alex Scott Maiden, which could be best left to Ryan Moore on Juddmonte homebred Kikkuli for Harry Charlton, who is wasting little time in making an impression since taking out the sole licence at Beckhampton (4-7 with his three-year-olds on the all-weather this winter).
The Gosdens do have chances in the JRA Handicap and Mutasaabeq New For 2024 Handicap, though, with Crown Estate and Slipofthepen – both running for The King and Queen under the yard’s new number one rider, Kieran Shoemark.
The handicapper to back on day one could be Charlie Johnston’s Benacre. He hung in there for longer than entitled to when beaten a length into third at Wolverhampton last month and came on nicely from an all-weather prep run to almost win the King Charles II Stakes here last May. He looks to have done well for being gelded over the winter and is very fairly treated running off 92 at present.
Bet365 EBF Conditions Stakes hopefuls Boiling Point, El Bufalo and Ten Bob Tony are entered in the 2000 Guineas but they’re 66/1, 150s and 100s for the first Classic and it wouldn’t be a surprise if there were all beaten by Starlore, who will be Sir Michael Stoute’s second three-year-old to hit the turf this year – following Reaching High who ran at Windsor on Monday.
Friendly face to follow
The Classic trials begin in earnest on Wednesday and it was only a couple of years ago the winner of the Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes – Cachet – went on to double up in the 1000 Guineas. Four of the 11 declared runners hold Guineas entries this season - namely Dance Sequence, Matrika, Queen Of Zafeen and True Cyan.
The Appleby-trained Dance Sequence was backed from around 20/1 to 12s for the Guineas in the middle of March and must have continued to show the right signs at home as she’s now no bigger than 11/2 and as short as 4/1 joint-second favourite with a couple of firms.
She’s Godolphin through-and-through, being a Dubawi filly out of Street Cry mare Tearless, who won three of her four starts for Appleby including at Listed level.
Dance Sequence struck twice here at two, a July Course maiden on debut before following up with a neck defeat of Ralph Beckett’s Skellet, the pair three lengths clear, in the Oh So Sharp over course and distance.
It’s hard to see her Classic odds contracting much further but seeing off Aidan O’Brien’s Group 2-winning Matrika – not sighted since the Curragh last July (replay below) – would send out a message before the likes of Ylang Ylang roll into town next month.
The opposite is also true, of course, and should Matrika make a winning return then she surely won’t be the only one housed in Ballydoyle that gets cut for the Guineas. Either way, it has the makings of a proper trial.
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Wednesday’s Feilden Stakes hasn’t made much of an impact on the Classics since Golden Horn almost appeared from nowhere at the start of his stunning three-year-old campaign in 2015, but there’s a decent turnout this year.
O’Brien had four entered here and runs Justify colt Gasper De Lemos who followed home Arabian Crown – at a respectable distance, admittedly – in the Zetland Stakes here in the autumn, while Andre Fabre sends the chestnut Narkez, a son of Siyouni who progressed steadily at two and looked much-improved when winning a minor event at Saint-Cloud last month.
Fabre has a 31% strike-rate (25-80) on the Rowley Mile and backing them all would have seen you nicely in profit, although he’s 0-5 in the past five years which is a little less compelling when it comes to this horse, who comes out joint-top on Timeform’s adjusted figures.
Narkev shares that position with the James Fanshawe-trained Dante/Derby entry Ambiente Friendly. He bolted up in a Leicester maiden in September before running with credit when third to subsequent G1 Futurity Trophy winner Ancient Wisdom in the Autumn Stakes on this track the following month. There is likely plenty more to come from him this year and I'll be watching him closely.
All-weather winners El Cordobes (Appleby), Immortal Knight (Roger Varian) and Whip Cracker (Richard Hughes) add further depth to what should be an informative contest – without quite having major implications towards Epsom.
Secret's out in Abernant
The bet365 Craven Stakes still hasn’t been won by a subsequent 2000 Guineas hero since Haafhd 20 years ago and last season’s edition won by Indestructible wasn’t a strong one by any means.
However, it did still produce Dante winner The Foxes and the four Craven winners before that – Native Trail, Master Of The Seas, Skardu and Masar – were all placed in the Guineas less than a month later.
Three of that quartet were trained by Charlie Appleby and he’s out to try and win another Craven with Native Approach, a Too Darn Hot colt who is around a 40/1 shot for the first Classic of the season on May 4.
He didn’t make his debut until January 24 and was turned over as the 5/6 favourite under David Probert but managed to build on that fast-finishing second over seven furlongs to win going away upped to a mile at Kempton in February.
It wasn’t a very deep maiden but the third has won well since at Lingfield and Native Approach really lengthened away in the straight in the manner of a colt learning on the job. Being put away to represent Appleby and Buick in this trial is very much a vote of confidence for him.
A lot will depend on what else shows up but the form horses are the Fabre-trained Criterium International runner-up Alcantor and the Gosdens’ Calyx colt Eden Shaddad.
The latter was third to City Of Troy in the Dewhurst when last seen, confirming the impression he’d made when third to Dewhurst runner-up Alyanaabi in the Tattersalls Stakes, and he should stay a mile based on the dam’s side of his pedigree.
The Connaught Access Flooring Abernant Stakes is the first opportunity to see some of the better sprinters in action and look out for Spycatcher, who is lethal after a break. His form following 100+ days away reads 111 and he’s got course and distance form to boot, having won here as a three-year-old.
A spot or two of rain looks right up his street and something like the pick of his 2023 form would be good enough to win this.
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Published at 1500 BST on 15/04/24
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