There's Group 1 action from Newmarket this Saturday and our man has two tips at HQ plus one for the competitive handicap at Ascot.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday, October 7
1pt win Queen Regent in 1.30 Newmarket at 11/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes)
1pt e.w. Random Harvest in 3.15 Newmarket at 20/1 (William Hill, bet365 1/5 1,2,3)
1pts e.w. Pearle D’Or in 3.35 Ascot at 18/1 (Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
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Tough Harvest could play her part
There’s no getting away from the fact Inspiral is the right favourite for Saturday’s Virgin Bet Sun Chariot Stakes, but Frankie Dettori bidding to claim his 500th Newmarket winner is also potentially going to crush her price to an artificial level.
Inspiral is the sort of filly punters shouldn’t mind opposing as when she’s on it she’s clearly top-class, but there has been the odd bump in the road along the way too don’t forget. She hasn’t actually backed up a win since her juvenile days so while the daughter of Frankel is the clear form pick and the most likely winner, I’ll take her on at short odds.
Andre Fabre typically means business when travelling for a British Group 1 – he won this race with Esoterique in the same Rothschild silks back in 2015 – and Mqse De Sevigne is on a roll after back-to-back G1 wins at Deauville.
There’s not much juice in her price either, though, and a couple of the others deserve to be explored more fully.
I'd just about washed my hands with Meditate before she showed a fair bit more of her two-year-old sparkle in the blinkers at Leopardstown last month, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see her go well before potentially returning to the Breeders’ Cup, where she bolted up at Keeneland last November.
Richard Hannon’s fillies shouldn’t be underestimated once hitting top gear and Heredia is a solid-looking four-year-old who will give her all if there’s enough early pace to help tee things up, but that's a bit of a sticking point with her and, at an even bigger price, I’m left weighing up the possibility of RANDOM HARVEST toughing it out from the front.
She’s improved a good deal from four to five and almost pulled off the upset in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot, before not getting her ground - or an easy lead - in the Falmouth Stakes on the July Course.
Ed Walker’s War Front mare was turned out again quickly and duly won a Group 3 back at Ascot at the end of July, while I think we can scrap her last effort as once again the rain came at a bad time and she was never really involved at Goodwood.
Up against half a dozen 107-plus rated colts in the Celebration Mile that day, she should be happier back against her own sex and good ground looks ideal as she returns to a course that can often suit front-runners. Granted, she's 0-3 on this track but I’d expect her to run her race and she can reward each-way money, even if Inspiral turns up and is in a league of her own as the market suggests.
Too soon to write of Regent
This year’s Nassau Stakes winner Al Husn won Newmarket’s opening British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap 12 months ago and if there’s one who could potentially go on to prove themselves at Group level in Saturday's line-up then it's probably Whispering Words.
Charlie Appleby's Dubawi filly, fifth here last October in a seven-furlong maiden won by the classy Sumo Sam, has shown a decent level of form in novice company this term, beating a couple of subsequent winners in Doom (now rated 86) and Purple Love (79) on the July Course before just missing out under the penalty at Kempton last month.
Her opening mark of 88 doesn’t look too crippling and there’s a suspicion she’ll enjoy her first crack at 10 furlongs, judged on both pedigree and run-style.
It's a competitive heat, though, and there should be plenty of early pace courtesy of front-runners Lady Alara and Prenup, plus the Charlie Johnston-trained Madame Ambassador, who made all here a fortnight ago when able to get something of a freebie up front.
Red Danielle and Lady Boba are both interesting on handicap debut, while Totnes no doubt has more to offer, but it’s got to be worth giving another chance to the Gosdens’ QUEEN REGENT, who didn’t get a fair shot at things in a 12-furlong handicap at Salisbury last time.
Admittedly, she didn’t do herself many favours by racing keenly through the early stages but she was still boxing on in a share of third when getting blocked off down by the inside rail, and Oisin Murphy let her come home in her own time after that.
Back down in trip, she should have the requisite speed for this having won a mile novice event at Newcastle back in February, while the handicapper easing her a couple of pounds is obviously going to help.
We know most of Roaring Lion’s progeny prefer the ground riding on top so the forecast looks quite favourable for her too.
Improving O'Meara runner a Pearle of a bet
The Howden Challenge Cup is the main betting attraction at Ascot by a considerable margin and, with the weather set unseasonably fair there too, I've gone cool on Atrium, who I was tempted by earlier in the week. He might just find this a sharp enough test as he stays a mile on softer ground.
We know all about the strengths of Fresh, Quinault and the old boys Escobar and Bless Him, but the unexposed one is one of Escobar’s four stablemates in here, the four-year-old PEARLE D’OR.
Racing under a 6lb penalty for his Newbury win a fortnight ago, he’s technically 2lb badly-in compared to his future mark but I’m not having any of it.
He looked a long way ahead of the assessor to me and it had been coming too following a win over this course and distance in July before a one-length third behind Ayr Gold Cup runner-up Ramazan at Chepstow the following month.
Another horse David O’Meara picked up from the horses-in-training sales last autumn, he’s just the latest in a series of success stories from a similar mould, and it could be that the trainer is only just finding the key to him this autumn.
Plenty of people will point to the heavy ground last time out, and it’s fairly obvious that he goes through it better than most like a lot of Starspangledbanner’s progeny, but he’s also got some solid good to firm ground form in the book too and, given the time of year, I refuse to believe conditions will prove to be too lively for Pearle D’Or this weekend.
Published at 1600 BST on 06/10/23
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