Newcastle tips: Best value bets for Saturday July 1

Value Bet tips: Saturday, July 1

1pt win Soldier's Minute in 12.20 Newcastle at 9/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Coral)

1pt win Omniscient in 2.05 Newcastle at 10/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

There are a couple of Listed races and the Group 3 Criterion Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday, but 10 runners in the Empress Fillies’ Stakes for two-year-olds is the biggest field of the three, and each race contains a short-price favourite.

Finding horses to oppose them with at the current prices on offer isn’t an easy task and, as such, it is easy to sway away from the action at Newmarket and focus on a competitive card at Newcastle, which is headlined by the Northumberland Plate.

As I started writing this column, the wheels were well and truly in motion on a tasty gamble of the Deborah Faulkner-trained Golden Rules, who was put in at 8/1 by one firm on Thursday afternoon, but is now a general 3/1 favourite.

A video which resurfaced of the owner stating ‘he will win’ on social media on Thursday evening may have had an impact on the plunge, however, and whether that price holds up moving into tomorrow remains to be seen.

Golden Rules did make a positive start for these connections when winning over two miles at Kempton in March, defying market weakness to overcome a 638-day absence, and he has only been raised 3lb for that success. Oisin Murphy gave him an excellent front-running ride on that occasion, though, getting an easy lead in a slowly-run race and kicking for home early in the straight. Circumstances won’t be as favourable in this more competitive environment, and he is easily opposed at his current price, for all he is very much unexposed as a stayer.

The move for Golden Rules in the market has resulted in Post Impressionist drifting out to a more backable price. He looked very promising at the beginning of last season, powering away to win a maiden at Ayr and finishing runner-up in a very strong race – won by subsequent St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov – at this course in May.

He started joint-favourite for the ultra-competitive King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot on the back of that effort but he wasn’t able to show his true form, still looking green and racing too freely. It took him a while to show what he is truly capable of, but he put it all together on his final start at York when winning a mile and three quarter handicap in grand style, having Nathanael Greene four lengths behind in fourth.

Post Impressionist relished the extra emphasis on stamina on that occasion, leading under pressure entering the final furlong and forging clear in the closing stages. A subsequent 8 lb rise will demand more, but given he was a relatively slow learner last season suggests he’ll make up into an even better four-year-old and the step up to two miles is sure to be in his favour.

If there is one horse in this field who is potentially open to even more progress, however, it is OMNISCIENT, and he is available to back at more or less double the odds. He is another who was a relatively slow learner last season, but he looked a handicapper to keep firmly on side when routing his field at Southwell on his final start in October.

Typical of one from this yard, he showed much improved form once entering handicaps, opening his account with plenty in hand at Yarmouth and relishing the return to a more galloping track and step up to a mile and a half at Southwell.

That effort also came on the back of a short break and he tanked through the race, shaken up to take the lead around two furlongs out and still looking inexperienced when in front on his own, hanging over to the rail and having to be kept up to his work to maintain his advantage.

Omniscient wasn’t doing much in front, leaving the impression he would have found plenty more if another horse had come to him, but in the same breath he was also very strong at the line. Admittedly, this represents a big step up in both class and trip for him, but his pedigree offers hope he will stay – he is a half-brother to very smart two-mile winner Dashing Willoughby – and he also shapes like he’ll relish the extra distance, while as a strong traveller, he should be able to hold a good position.

Sir Mark Prescott is enjoying a fantastic season, operating at a 32% strike rate and, historically, this is the time of year to follow the yard (he has a 28% strike rate in July over the past five seasons). Furthermore, his strike rate with horses returning from a lay-off of 270 days or more since 1997 stands at 21.74%. Omniscient will almost certainly be ready to roll on his return in a race of this magnitude and odds of 10/1 appeal as being more than fair for a horse of his potential.

At the head of the market for the Northumberland Vase are two in-form horses who carry penalties in Blow Your Horn and Appier. The former has been a revelation of late, winning his last three starts on turf, including a Sunday Series handicap over 18 furlongs at Pontefract on Sunday. He had plenty in hand on that occasion and will be a big threat under his penalty, though he is being kept busy and this may come quick enough.

Appier can boast a good record on an artificial surface and proved better than ever when resuming winning ways over a mile and a half at Lingfield earlier this month, beating the reopposing Citizen General by one and three quarter lengths. The niggling doubt with him, especially at his price, is will he stay the trip? Appier is yet to race beyond a mile and three quarters and I’m not sure whether he is crying out for this far at a track where the trip will take some getting.

My idea of the winner is the Keith Dalgleish-trained Thermoscope, who was a course and distance winner for Brian Ellison last year and made a striking impression on his debut for this yard at Musselburgh. He was incredibly well backed that day and was given a very confident ride, going clear of his rivals entering the straight and he drew clear again in the final furlong before being eased close home.

The handicapper raised him 11lb for that success and he failed to justify favouritism on his latest start at Hamilton, though he wasn’t helped by the run of the race on that occasion, not suited by a steady gallop and just looking one paced at the finish over a shorter trip. Thermoscope will be much better suited by both the return to a bigger field and two miles, but his price is starting to dwindle and I’m happy enough to leave him alone at around 13/2.

However, I am interested in another Keith Dalgleish horse earlier on the card and that is SOLDIER'S MINUTE who runs in the opening six-furlong handicap. This horse was a big eyecatcher at York in May, leaving the firm impression he was back in form and ready to strike, but not getting the rub of the green as he met trouble in-running and was never able to fully open up.

He confirmed he is back in good heard when not beaten far in a smaller field at Ayr just six days later and similar comments apply on his last two outings, coming from much further back than those who beat him back at York last time. Admittedly, he is a horse who needs everything to drop right, so it can be a dangerous game to play if mark you him down as an unlucky loser all of the time, but I am looking forward to seeing him back on the all-weather (five wins from 20 starts).

The handicapper has split his mark to show he is a better performer on an artificial surface (his mark on turf is 12lb lower), but he is well treated on the pick of his efforts even from his all-weather mark having fallen 7lb below his last winning one. That came at Lingfield in February 2022 but he has only run on the all-weather twice since.

Soldier’s Minute has only run at Newcastle once and that came in the All-Weather Sprint Championships last year where he started 50/1 and had plenty to do at the weights. This track often suits horses with his run-style, though, a strong traveller who is usually waited with to come through with a late run.

A slight concern is that there isn’t an abundance of pace in this race on paper, but with Lethal Levi, Magical Spirit and Raatea all in the race, it shouldn’t be run at a dawdle. The thriving Joe Fanning, who has been on board for four of his seven career wins, is back in the plate, and he makes appeal at around 9/1 given he can make this mark look all wrong if getting the breaks.

Preview posted at 1500BST on 30/06/2023

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