Newbury Saturday analysis | How much of a threat is Shishkin to Galopin Des Champs in the Cheltenham Gold Cup?

After getting the ‘Bad’ and the ‘Ugly’ from Shishkin on his first two runs of the season, we’ve finally seen the ‘Good’.

That was what was required from Nicky Henderson’s horse after a most bizarre campaign, one which saw him refuse to race at Ascot and then unseat Nico de Boinville, in unfortunate circumstances, just after two from home in the King George at Kempton with the race at his mercy. At Newbury, a fairly serene victory in the Betfair Denman Chase on Saturday made for mostly pleasant viewing.

I say mostly as there were still moments of brief concern; he jumped to his left at the third fence, lugged more markedly to his left at the 13th and then got in tight to the last. He was niggled relatively early, too, racing lazily on occasions, and you do look at the performance as a whole and think he will have to improve to trouble a top-form Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup.

But he could do. This was, after all, his first completed run of the season. It came on heavy ground that wouldn’t be his preferred surface. And he was at his most impressive inside the final furlong, when asked to go and win his race. He lengthened away from Hitman in good style, shaping every inch as though the extended 3m2f in the Gold Cup will be a help rather than a hindrance to him.

Protektorat, rated 165, four-and-three-quarter lengths back in third, is the key form horse. He ran his race out in front and has been consistently good since his below-par run in the Betfair Chase on his reappearance. He jumped well and rallied once he was headed, but Shishkin was too strong.

People might point to the 152-rated runner-up Hitman, beaten four-and-a-quarter lengths, as proof this form is limited. For me, that would be unwise. Still only eight, Hitman has had his problems, and he’s far from the most resolute in the finish - as was the case again here. But he has been rated 160 in the past, he was in receipt of 6lb and he usually runs very well on his second start after wind surgery - as was the case again here.

He travelled like the horse that ran such a good race in third in the Ryanair Chase last season in this, only floundering when the chips were really down. That’s very Hitman, but he looked in good nick and he’ll be rated higher than 152 when he goes for the Ryanair again next month.

The official handicapper said Shishkin was 7lb shy of the 180-rated Galopin Des Champs heading into the Denman Chase and I’m sure that will still be the case on Tuesday. That makes him the most potent threat to Willie Mullins’ reigning champion on official figures, which makes his Cheltenham Gold Cup odds a tempting proposition.

A best of 10/1 for the Gold Cup before the Denman, he’s a best of 10/1 still now, 9s generally, but after watching Fastorslow, the 5/1 second favourite, get swatted away by Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup last weekend, I wonder if he is the most potent threat to the odds-on favourite now he’s got a confidence-boosting win under his belt?

My gut tells me he is as he bids to become the first Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ winner to land the Gold Cup since L’Escargot in 1970, who landed his Supreme so long ago it was still called the Gloucestershire Hurdle and split into two divisions (he won division II in 1968) at the time.

Pieces of the jigsaw?

Back in 2024, Henderson cut a relieved figure afterwards and he’s clearly up for the Gold Cup battle. ‘Let’s go!’ and ‘I think it’ll be good,’ and ‘there’s no point in running scared’ offered varying degrees of optimism in the afterglow of Newbury, but I was most intrigued by his comments regarding the possibility of him adding cheekpieces to Shishkin’s armoury in the battle at Prestbury Park.

‘I wouldn’t say no, we’ll sleep on it,' said Henderson, who put cheekpieces on Shishkin when he planted himself at the start at Ascot back in November. Henderson dismissed the notion that the sheepskin was to blame as nonsense, before muttering that he preferred brown cheekpieces to white ones.

You have to think sporting a pair could eke a bit more improvement out of Shishkin. They could help him focus and travel through his race better, and when you’ve got half a stone to find with the main man then finding some improvement from somewhere becomes all the more vital.

Henderson has reached for the first-time cheekpieces in Grade 1 races before, with mixed results. I can find eight occasions in the last 20 years that he’s used the 'p1' in a Grade 1 and he won with one of them, Zaynar, in the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in 2009. Long Run, his last winner of the Denman Chase before Shishkin, incidentally, first sported a pair of cheekpieces when he was third in the 2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup.

It is food for thought. As is Shishkin’s bounty hunting expedition next month. And after witnessing The Good, the Bad and the Ugly already from this box office son of Sholokhov this season, Henderson will be hoping that this Denman Chase win can be the platform from which Shishkin secures A Fistful of Dollars for his team on Cheltenham Gold Cup day. And that's a cut!

More from Sporting Life

• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org