Cornelius Lysaght was our man at Newbury on Saturday and he found Paul Nicholls in realistic mood despite a welcome winner.
For all the philosophical talk from Paul Nicholls about the perceived out-of-form nature of his powerful string, there was plenty of relief when his principal Cheltenham Festival hope Bravemansgame defied a welter-weight in Newbury’s Super Saturday opener.
As one winner from 37 runners became two from 38, jump racing’s 12-time champion trainer turned to a well-wisher with a theatrical wiping of his brow and a loudly-exclaimed “phew”.
“A bit of fun”, he said, but from what I saw it was all delivered with a certain degree of feeling.
While there was a further win for the Ditcheat team at Uttoxeter, the defeats here of the well-fancied pair Clan Des Obeaux and Hitman and all of his other runners – though none was beaten far – probably ensures that sceptics who have been picking over the entrails of the Nicholls results of late will not be stopping just yet.
Nicholls pleased with Newbury runners
He said: “I’ve had two winners today – Bravemansgame has done it really well – and the next ones have run real, good races.
“The biggest problem we have is that we’ve had something like a 29 percent strike rate all season, and all of a sudden it’s dropped to 23 percent.
“But if you look at the trainers’ table and see everyone else’s strike rate, we’ve actually done bloody well – always over a 12 month period you’re going to have a little lull and if you’re ever going to do it then January and early-February is a good time to do it.
“You’ve always got to have faith in yourself, they’ve looked great – you should never change anything – I don’t get worried like I used to because you know perfectly well things will come right in the end.”
Before it became a handicap, the race won by Bravemansgame, ridden by Harry Cobden in the white and mauve silks of owners John Dance and Bryan Drew, was used by Nicholls as a winning stepping-stone to the Cheltenham Festival for the iconic Denman ahead of his 2007 success in the RSA Chase.
Comparisons have been made already between Bravemansgame and his illustrious predecessor, and he is expected to be given the chance to try to emulate him again in what is now the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase on the Festival’s day two against Ireland’s impressive Galopin Des Champs, trained by Willie Mullins.
No stopping Irish domination at Cheltenham
As things stand, not only is he Nicholls’ number one hope at Cheltenham, but the unbeaten-over-fences seven-year-old is in the top ten prospects for British racing against the might of the Irish after the 5-23 humbling in 2021.
Hopes have been growing of a better showing this time – perhaps courtesy of in-form Nicky Henderson or Venetia Williams, whose Royale Pagaille was beaten by the ground in the Denman Chase – but Nicholls told me that he cannot see an improvement for the home team just yet.
“I think it’ll be the same this year,” he said. “It’s like a football team, you’re not going to change it in a year. It’ll take three or four years to come right. We’d all like some better horses, like football teams want better players.
“No matter how you tweak your handicaps or do this or do that, it’ll take time. I’m not going to waste bullets trying to beat the Irish; if I don’t think they’re good enough I’ll just go elsewhere with them.
“You’ve just got to be realistic about it, that’s all – they’ve got the advantage at the moment.”
Characteristic straight talking from the champion trainer: some are querying the form of his horses but no one can doubt the form of the man himself.
