Scottish Sun columnist and Racing TV analyst Ed Watson fancies a trainer who’s quietly carving out a niche as a specialist Musselburgh target trainer to bank more of the booty on day one of the Scottish Cheltenham Trials double-header.
THE BIG-RACE BET
WELSH CHARGER (13:43)
The Kalooki Kid turned in an uncharacteristically moderate round of jumping in the Auld Reekie Chase over this track and trip on New Year’s Day, losing ground on RaceiQ’s lengths gained jumping metric in an area of his game that’s usually a strength. He has ground to make up on Insurrection and Tommy’s Oscar on that form, although the return in the saddle of regular rider Danny McMenamin, who was missing last time after taking a heavy tumble a couple of days previously, may well get Nicky Richards’ grey back on track in the Scottish Champion Chase, in which he was a taking winner 12 months ago.
However, the horse which looks to have a better chance of going back-to-back in the feature races on this card is WELSH CHARGER in the Scottish County Hurdle. Unbeaten in two previous visits to the East Lothian circuit, the now eight-year-old has dropped back to a mark just 1lb above that from which he rallied determinedly to deny Afadil (back again for a third crack at the race and 2lb better off for a length) a repeat success in this £40,000 handicap.
On Timeform figures, Welsh Charger posted another improved effort on his next run in Ayr’s Scottish Champion Hurdle, where he was still right in the firing line jumping the last and only gave best inside the final 50 yards. He may well have done enough for the season when below-par in the Swinton next time, but the selection returned from his summer’s break with a creditable fourth to Alexei in the Greatwood at Cheltenham’s November meeting.
You need to forgive him for an underwhelming effort at Ascot just before Christmas, but that was a strong event of its type - the winner Wilful and runner-up Hot Fuss reversing positions but franking the form next time at Windsor - in which four or five of the runners wanted to go forward and he was unable to dominate as a result.
Crucially for backers of Welsh Charger, who is Timeform top-rated here, there doesn’t look to be anything like the same kind of pace pressure, with Wise Eagle likely to be the sole stalker. Granted an unpestered lead, Welsh Charger rates a fair bet at around the 5/1 mark to score at this meeting for the third year in a row (he won a 2m4f handicap hurdle in 2024) and provide trainer Alastair Ralph with yet another notable success at this two-day fixture.
The Inside Track: “Welsh Charger ran a super race in the Greatwood. That’s the only time I’ve ridden him on the racetrack but I’ve done a lot of work on him at home. He ran a funny race at Ascot the last time but he’s a horse who likes to dominate and he couldn’t that day. He’s a little terrier who likes to go hard and turn races into a dogfight.” - Ciaran Gethings, jockey
THE BEST BET
MAGNA VICTOR (15:37)
With five winners from just nine jumps runners at Musselburgh, Shropshire-based Ralph has quietly established a reputation as an excellent target trainer at this meeting in particular.
As well as Welsh Charger’s brace of Trials Weekend wins, Ralph bagged the Edinburgh National in 2023 and 2025 with Magna Sam, who’ll be back for his fourth crack at the near-4m event on Sunday. That’s quite the haul, as a £1 level-stakes profit of £53.50 testifies.
The other contributor to Ralph’s impressive tally is MAGNA VICTOR, who made a successful handicap debut over this course and distance six weeks ago (replay below).
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A 4lb rise for a that neck victory over Gemini Man, who reopposes on 2lb better terms, doesn’t look overly lenient on first glance. But there are reasons to believe he can make the necessary progress to confirm the form and win again.
For starters, Magna Victor gave the strong impression he remains a work in progress in what was only his third run over hurdles. While he jumped fine for the most part, he took a wide course throughout under David Noonan, presumably to give him a clear sight at his obstacles given his relative lack of experience and conceded his share of ground around three of Musselburgh’s hairpin bends as a result.
He also exhibited signs of greenness when hitting the front going to the final flight, then hung right under pressure after it before toughing it out commendably to get the better of the runner-up in a sustained duel.
The form has already been franked by the fourth and fifth both winning next time off the same marks, while the luckless third, who was the meat in the sandwich in that rammy after that last, has also run well since. More progress seems assured stepping up only markedly in grade, although it’s worth noting he has also been declared over 2m4f - a trip he’s yet to tackle - on Sunday.
The Inside Track: “I thought Magna Victor did well to win last time because he’s quite a big horse who’s still inexperienced and has his own way of jumping. He’s gone up a 1lb for standing in his box but the form of his win is there in the book. Course form at Musselburgh is often crucial and I hope he’s got a bit more up his sleeve” - Ciaran Gethings, jockey
THE NEXT BEST
KELCE (16:11)
The potential for a freebie on the front end could make KELCE a tough rival to peg back on a track that should really play to his strengths.
Neil Mulholland’s Wiltshire raider has run two solid races so far this season, at Cheltenham and Aintree, when partnered by an amateur or a conditional jockey. Kelce was below par back at jumping HQ in between those two efforts, but he was ridden with more restraint on that occasion in the face of a contested early pace and I have my doubts as to whether he appreciated it.
Inox Allen and top-weight Empire Steel have both won off the front. However, the former ran a moody race last time at this track and quickly gave away a prominent position, while it would be no surprise if the now 12-year-old Empire Steel was ridden more conservatively returning from the guts of a 400-day lay-off.
There are no such concerns about Kelce, who is reunited with Conor O’Farrell for the first time since he steered the eight-year-old to an all-the-way win in a small field at Wetherby in March.
No doubt the experienced O’Farrell will endeavour to get his mount into a nice rhythm early on before turning the screw over the final four fences of a track he knows well from a successful stint up north prior to returning south to join forces with Mulholland this season.
The Inside Track: "Kelce is a lovely little horse who did nothing but improve over fences last season. His run at Aintree last time was probably a career-best and if he can produce that again going back right-handed, he should be very competitive. We think Musselburgh is a track that will suit.” - Conor O’Farrell, jockey
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