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Recommended bets

2pts win Inexes 3.50 Leicester at 4/1 (3/1 minimum price)

1pt e.w. B Fifty Two 3.00 Catterick at 20/1- NON-RUNNER

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TUESDAY

Drawn To Succeed: Inexes 3:50 Leicester

The second division of the 6f handicap at Leicester is not the strongest race on the card by any means, but it’s seemingly quite competitive at first glance, and the odds chalked up early for Inexes are tempting enough to induce me to bet. The going-stick reading at Leicester is 4.1 and that would appear a lot closer to heavy than soft despite the official description. Only two of these have ever won on ground described as heavy, namely Stallone and Inexes.

Stallone, like the selection, is a winner in the mud here, and both he and Inexes have posted similar efforts in defeat this season, but the difference in them could be the draw. There’s a certain irony in that Inexes is in stall one, while Stallone is drawn eight, and the stall furthest from the stands rail produces over a quarter of all race winners at up to 6f at the track. Stall eight, on the other hand, has a record of 3/85 when there is cut in the ground. Those figures are for all field sizes, and go back a decade, for what it’s worth.

Each-Way Angle: B Fifty Two 3:00 Catterick - NON-RUNNER

B Fifty Two is not the most consistent, but he needs mud these days over sprint trips, and he relished the heavy conditions when making all over 7f here in August. He was well held on faster ground last time, but that run can be ignored due to the ground and the fact that he raced freely without cover.

The time before, he was third over C&D despite being poorly positioned, and had to do his running up the centre of the track in the straight. He can be marked up on that, and with a slow starter inside him here, he should soon be able to track the pace which should come from Rebel Redemption.

For a horse with a patchy profile, B Fifty Two has a lifetime record on soft or heavy going at 6f/7f which makes impressive reading for each-way punters, running eight times, winning once, and being placed on all but one of those outings, five of which came at Catterick.

Under The Radar: Signore Piccolo 3:20 Leicester - NON-RUNNER

Signore Piccolo is the kind of horse most of us would automatically put a line through, winless for over two years, and having finished 10th of 11 on his only start this year. What’s more, his new trainer operates at a 3% strike-rate in the past five years and her runners this year have beaten a total of five rivals between them. Given that, his opening price of 14/1 looks decidedly mean.

Scratch a little (a lot) deeper, though, and there are positives, and while the negatives mean he’s not a recommended bet, he might be worth a small investment if he drifts markedly in the exchanges, as seems likely. Firstly, he’s been placed on both previous starts at Leicester, and two runs on heavy ground at this trip have seen him finish third and fourth.

He also seems at his best after a very recent run, and in the last five years, his record when turned out within eight days of a previous start is 231284, with the unplaced effort coming when out of his depth in a Class 3 contest. Expecting him to maintain that record on his second outing back from a long break might be asking a lot, but he was only beaten two lengths despite finishing tenth at Newcastle on his stable debut, and that run was as recently as Friday. He’s one of only three horses in the race to have won on soft ground, so it would hardly be a shock if he ran into the frame here.

Preview posted 1730 BST on 05/10/2020

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