Mike Cattermole is expecting a good day for fellow Sporting Life columnist Richard Fahey at Royal Ascot.
The last-chance saloon has arrived and although both the confidence and wallet have taken a battering, perhaps the final day of a tough week can restore some pride and financial compensation to your correspondent!
I never expected to oppose Harry Angel in any race he contested this summer but for all of his brilliance, he isn’t straightforward and that’s why I am taking Redkirk Warrior to become the third Australian-trained winner of a wide-open Diamond Jubilee Stakes.
It is incredible to think that when he started his career in Britain, Redkirk Warrior was winning over a mile and a quarter, including here at Ascot.
Fast forward four years and the Notnowcato gelding has been a revelation since dropping back in trip, winning Group One’s at Flemington against some of the best sprinters down under.
On his most recent start, he showed blinding pace on the stands’ side to win the Group One Newmarket Handicap at Flemington - for the second year running - with Merchant Navy a very close third (on the far side) but in receipt of the 12lb he was entitled to for weight-for-age.
Merchant Navy has since joined Aidan O’Brien, won at the Curragh and races at level weights this time in this different hemisphere. He may have the greater scope to improve but that is still quite an ask.
Harry Angel came back to win under a Group One penalty at York and was the best 6f performer in Europe last season. But he is quite a headstrong type who tends to get worked up at the stalls and will need to switch off to show the others what he is made of here.
He may well be able to keep it all together but it is a worry. I don’t buy the theory that he doesn’t like the course – although he has never won here before, he has performed well.
Last year’s winner The Tin Man showed his wellbeing at Windsor and has to be respected and Librisa Breeze, fourth behind him last year when denied a clear run, could go well again, too.
I wouldn’t rule out the American sprinter Bound For Nowhere, either. He was three lengths behind Harry Angel in the Commonwealth Cup last year and thrashed Bucchero at Keeneland when last seen. Bucchero was an honourable fifth in the King’s Stand on Tuesday.
The turf was still be smouldering by the time they line up for the Wokingham just 40 minutes later. There are any number with a chance here but the most impressive sprint handicap performance I have seen this season was undoubtedly George Bowen at York last month.
He absolutely smashed up a field of smart handicappers to stroll home by six lengths on good to firm. Richard Fahey ran him under a penalty at Goodwood the following week but he was just beaten on good to soft and the key to him is the quick ground.
Although up 11lb from York, Fahey has booked the talented Sebastian Woods to take off 5lb and the combination look a sporting each-way shot at around 25-1.
Yes, I know George Bowen has been around a bit and it is sexier to find a more unexposed sprinter in this puzzle, but don’t forget that the veteran Out Do won it 12 months ago and I wouldn’t put it past him running well again off a similar mark. He is drawn on the other side (2) to George (21).
The other two I like are Growl (29) and Tis Marvellous (5), both who have slipped down to attractive marks and showed signs of returning to something like their best last time.
The card opens with the Chesham Stakes and in the absence of anything special from Ballydoyle, this can go to Natalie’s Joy who romped home on her debut at Goodwood, impressing the clock watchers in the process.
The fact that the Mark Johnston team won the Albany yesterday with Main Edition adds to the confidence and she should be hard to beat.
Of the others, Nate The Great looked a nice type when winning at Carlisle for the up and coming Archie Watson.
Although the tactics could be muddling in the Hardwicke Stakes, it would be a massive surprise to see Crystal Ocean getting turned over as his form is a step up on what his rivals can offer, including last year’s winner and runner-up Idaho and Barsanti.
Ryan Moore is allowed off the Ballydoyle runners to partner Crystal Ocean who can top off a great week for Sir Michael Stoute.
The Windsor Castle Stakes has attracted a whopping 28 runners and the two against the field are Sabre and Moonlight Romance. The latter chased home her stablemate Shang Shang Shang at Keeneland and what a boost that form got this week in the Norfolk.
Sabre was runner-up in the National Stakes at Sandown behind Vintage Brut who disappointed in the Norfolk but the others who were involved in that finish, Konchek and Kinks, both ran well (fifth and sixth) while the fourth, Blown By Wind was a respectable seventh in the Coventry.
Sabre is the bigger price of the two - 9-1 with Sky Bet.
Finally, last year’s Ascot Stakes winner Thomas Hobson is back for a crack at the Queen Alexandra, a race in which he almost doubled up in last year only to find Oriental Fox too good.
He was too good to run in Tuesday’s marathon handicap this year and has a favourite’s chance of ending another great week for Willie Mullins’s small but select team of stayers.
Another Ryan Moore win here would make the leading jockey award very interesting.
SELECTIONS: 2.30 NATALIE’S JOY, 3.05 CRYSTAL OCEAN, 3.40 SABRE, 4.20 REDKIRK WARRIOR, 5.00 GEORGE BOWEN, 5.35 THOMAS HOBSON
