Timeform's David Cleary casts his eye over the Middle Park Stakes field and shares the Timeform view on all the key metrics.
Middle Park Stakes, six furlongs, 2yo colts
The Middle Park regularly brings together the best of the sprinting two-year-old colts, with the winners of races such as the Coventry, Gimcrack, Richmond, Phoenix Stakes and Prix Morny often taking their chance in the first Group 1 for two-year-old colts in Britain.
Aidan O'Brien has been the winning-most trainer in the race's history, with seven successes having come his way; Minardi was the first in 2000. Ad Valorem, in 2004, rates the best of the Ballydoyle winners, on 121. He was placed in the St James's Palace and Sussex Stakes at three, but had to wait until the 2006 Queen Anne to gain his only subsequent victory.
Best winning performances on Timeform ratings since 2001
129 Dream Ahead
121 Ad Valorem Dutch Art Oasis Dream
120 Shalaa
119 Ten Sovereigns Vandeek
Dream Ahead's performance in winning the 2010 Middle Park was one of the greatest by a two year old in the twenty-first century. He won the race by nine lengths from Strong Suit, who went on to show himself top class at three (Timeform rating 131). The winners of the Gimcrack and Robert Papin took third and fourth.
The race was run on soft ground, the most testing for the race in the last 25 years, which might have contributed to the size of Dream Ahead's winning margin. However, he demonstrated at three that he was capable of even better than he had shown that day and didn't need soft going to give of his best. Dream Ahead won the July Cup, Sprint Cup and Foret as a three year old and improved his Timeform rating to 133.
Prior to the Middle Park, Dream Ahead had won the Prix Morny at Deauville, which has often provided the key to the Middle Park. Earthlight, Perfect Power, Blackbeard and Vandeek all completed the Morny-Middle Park double in the last decade. Last year's Middle Park victor Wise Approach – the lowest-rated winner since 2001 – had finished third in the Morny.
Upsets are rare in the Middle Park. Five of the last eight winners have been sent off favourite, while two others in that period were second in the market. The last to win at a double-figure price was US Navy Flag in 2017. He was sent off at 10/1, the supposed Aidan O'Brien second string behind the Phoenix Stakes winner Sioux Nation.
The previous year, the 25/1-chance The Last Lion came out on top ahead of the Gimcrack winner Blue Point. The Last Lion was gaining a fourth win from 10 starts as a two year old, his campaign having begun with victory in the Brocklesby.
Tactics
Carry The Flag was the one confirmed front runner among those left in the race at the start of the week, but he is taking up a more appealing engagement in the Goffs Million at the Curragh.
The likely market leaders are set to rely on something else to tow the field along. Inner City Blues has been held up on both his starts; Orthodox raced mid-division in both the Norfolk and the Morny.
Push The Boat Out has raced prominently on both his starts, so might end up in front, or at least close up, in a race where a good gallop isn't guaranteed.
The outsider Hell of A Spin, third in the Gimcrack, is one likely to be ridden to the fore.
Trip/Ground/Draw
With the majority of the main contenders having shown their form in pattern events over six furlongs on ground on the firm side, the prevailing conditions are likely to pose little problem for them.
The draw isn't really a factor either, though where the jockeys choose to race can play a part, particularly if there is a perceived advantage. The policy of the current clerk of the course of having the stalls in the centre has tended to cancel that out in fields the size of the one lining up on Saturday.
The track can be an issue, and none of these has raced on the Rowley Mile. Inner City Blues showed what looked like greenness on the July course when winning the July Stakes. However, the history of the Middle Park doesn't suggest the track is regularly a factor in preventing the best horses coming to the fore.z
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Pedigree
The Dewhurst and Futurity are, for obvious reasons, generally much more significant in terms of next year's classics than the Middle Park. In the absence of Great Barrier Reef, there isn't an obvious potential Guineas candidate in the field, the majority looking likely to prove best around six or seven furlongs on paper. It's possible that Inner City Blues, whose sire was runner-up in the Middle Park, could be aimed at the Guineas though a mile would be the limit of his stamina judged on pedigree.
Confucius is a son of the Cheveley Park winner Millisle.
Form
Of those still entered at the five-day stage, only Folsom Blues had run to a level good enough to have won the Middle Park this century. Folsom Blues has been very progressive and his six-length win in the National Stakes was the clear pick of the form shown by this field. Prior to that, he had been second to Sun Goddess in the Phoenix Stakes, an effort that would still have him close up on Timeform ratings.
Folsom Blues isn't the only notable absentee. Aidan O'Brien relies on a pair, Confucius and Marco Polo, that were at much longer odds ante post than Great Barrier Reef and Man's Best Friend, winners of the Coventry and Richmond respectively. It's worth noting, however, that Marco Polo was sent off favourite for the Gimcrack, not long after his debut second to Push The Boat Out at the Curragh. Confucius has been sent off favourite in defeat on all three starts in pattern company, including behind Great Barrier Reef in the Coventry.
With several leading contenders failing to take up their engagement, the race could prove to be a bit substandard. Inner City Blues's win in the July Stakes is about the best form on offer, and he holds a leading chance of giving his stable a third successive win in the race.
The Norfolk winner Orthodox failed to give his running on soft ground in the Morny, but conditions should be fine for a bounce back on Saturday. He's got about the speediest pedigree in the line-up but should be effective at six furlongs.
Paddock
Confucius looked a better type than Great Barrier Reef in the paddock for the Coventry, so it will be interesting to see how he has developed since.
Inner City Blues is another who might well have developed since mid-summer, though he had plenty about him as a type then.
Orthodox is a strong colt, just the sort of sprint type that might be expected from his pedigree.
Case For The Contenders
Inner City Blues: unbeaten in a maiden at York and the July Stakes, where he overcame inexperience to beat two rivals; one of the least exposed of these and with just about the best form claims; stable going as well as it has all summer.
Orthodox: won the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot; had the ground as an excuse in the Morny on his only start since; speedily bred, but should have no trouble with 6f; Ascot form gives him every chance.
Push The Boat Out: unbeaten in two starts, a maiden at the Curragh – in which he beat Marco Polo – and the Round Tower Stakes, in which he edged out Great Barrier Reef; conditions will be fine and he might get first run if, as seems likely, he's ridden more prominently than his market rivals.
Marco Polo: went off a short price for the Gimcrack after a highly promising debut second to Push The Boat Out, but finished down the field; made short work of his rivals in a maiden at Cork next time; was due to run at Fairyhouse last Monday, so slight concern that this is an afterthought.
Confucius: beaten favourite on all three starts in pattern company, including when a 2/1-chance in the Coventry; still wouldn't need to find much improvement to get involved; missed a run in the Acomb at York; a good-looking colt and as well bred as any of these.
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