John Ingles looks at how the current crop of middle-distance three-year-olds compares with recent generations.
Saturday’s Eclipse Stakes marks the first opportunity for the leading members of the classic generation to be tested against the best of the older middle-distance performers that have remained in training.
For the last four years (and for seven of the last ten), the three-year-olds have been too strong for their elders in the Eclipse, with Ballydoyle trio St Mark’s Basilica, Paddington and City of Troy, along with French colt Vadeni, being the most recent winners. Before that, the 2020 Eclipse wasn’t open to three-year-olds as it was run just a day after the postponed Derby and Oaks in that Covid-affected year.
This year’s Eclipse field will see another clash of the generations, though the four three-year-olds who have been declared appear to have their work cut out against four-year-old Ombudsman who put up a top-class effort when winning the Prince of Wales’s Stakes impressively. If the betting has it right, it will be a one-two for the pair of older colts in the field as Sosie, a dual Group 1 winner at Longchamp this year, is second favourite.
The apparent lack of a stand-out candidate from the classic generation for this year’s Eclipse reflects the wider picture that there’s little strength in depth among the current crop of middle-distance three-year-olds, especially the colts, compared with previous years.
It’s a different story among the milers where Field of Gold, who could step up in distance later on, is looking a champion worthy of the name but, rated fully 10 lb behind him on 122, Lambourn is the only middle-distance three-year-old so far this season to have hauled himself above the 120 mark.
For a Derby winner, or a dual Derby winner as he is now after his gutsy defeat of stable-companion Serious Contender at the Curragh last weekend (replay below), that’s a low rating by historical standards and he didn’t even have to replicate it at the Curragh to beat a much-improved rival (now with a Timeform rating of 115) who had been beaten from a BHA mark of 92 at Royal Ascot just ten days earlier. The gap between handicaps and classics isn’t normally bridged quite so easily.
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Comparing the leaders of this year’s classic crop of middle-distance performers with last year’s at the same stage of the season, we see that three horses had achieved ratings in excess of 120 in 2024, with Derby winner City of Troy – soon to follow up in the Eclipse – leading the way on 127, ahead of King Edward VII Stakes winner Calandagan (123) and Dante winner Economics (121) who were both to prove better still by the end of the season.
Going a bit further back, there were six middle-distance three-year-olds rated 120+ in 2021, headed by Derby winner Adayar (125), and, better still, nine in 2019 when another Derby winner, Anthony Van Dyck (also rated 125), led the way.
There might have been less strength in depth in 2015, but that was the year for quality among the best middle-distance three-year-olds. Golden Horn was a top-class Derby winner (132) – he was about to put up a still better performance in beating his four older rivals in the Eclipse – while stablemate Jack Hobbs (127) who had been runner-up at Epsom was a five-length winner of the Irish Derby. Time Test was credited at the time with a 130 performance after winning the Tercentenary Stakes (Hampton Court), and while subsequent events required a slightly lower view to be taken, he was another high-class member of that crop.
The average rating of the top ten middle-distance (ten furlongs plus) three-year-olds is currently 117.1. That’s the lowest for any classic crop at the same stage of the season from 2015 onwards with the exception of the Covid year of 2020 (114.6) when, as noted, the Derby – another substandard one it turned out - wasn’t run until the first Saturday in July. The highest average was 122.2 scored by the 2019 crop.
But, even if Ombudsman proves a tough nut to crack, Saturday’s Eclipse has the potential to give this year’s three-year-old generation a boost. Derby favourite Delacroix had a race to forget at Epsom but he has the chance to resume progress back over shorter at Sandown, while 2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court, who was taken out of the Derby because of the ground, would be challenging Lambourn at the head of the middle-distance three-year-olds if he’s able to get close to the 123 rating he achieved at Newmarket now that he belatedly steps up from a mile.
Finally, while the overall strength of the current generation of middle-distance three-year-olds might be weaker than usual at this stage of the season, it’s worth highlighting the prominent showing of fillies within that crop. The next three horses behind Lambourn in the ratings are his stablemates, the Oaks one-two Minnie Hauk and Whirl (both 119), the latter subsequently successful in last weekend’s Pretty Polly Stakes, and 1000 Guineas winner Desert Flower who was third behind them Epsom, though she gets her 118 rating from her Fillies’ Mile victory at two.
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