Melbourne Cup tips: Expert insight from Australia

The first Tuesday in November is almost here and in racing, that means one thing: it’s Melbourne Cup time. Renowned for cold winters by Australian standards, Melbourne comes to life in the spring, and there’s a magnificent vibe in the city right now, thanks to the four days of the Melbourne Cup Carnival as well as a certain British band, Oasis, being in town.

Melbourne Cup day itself is a public holiday itself in the city of Melbourne, but the nation does stop at three pm local time to watch the great two-mile handicap. Whether you’re a regular punter or you’ve just bought a ticket in your local office sweep, the Cup is the race that the broader public takes an interest in racing, while as an industry, it’s our shop window to wider society.

Although it’s the race that stops the nation, the Melbourne Cup has a far wider reach than that. This year, it’s attracted runners from Britain, Ireland, France, Germany, Japan and for the first time, the United States of America.

The Weather

There are certain things that Melbourne is known for; AFL Football, coffee and the weather. It’s a city where you can get four seasons in one day and where it’s easier to back a winner than to predict what the weather is going to do. That said, at the time of penning this article, there is a lot of rain forecast for Monday and on raceday itself. Flemington drains particularly well but if the rain continues Tuesday during the meeting, it could well pay to follow a horse with proven wet track form.

Ladies to Land Cup?

Ten years ago, Michelle Payne rode her way into the record books by becoming the first jockey in the race’s history to win the Melbourne Cup, an event so significant that they even made a movie about it, called Ride Like A Girl.

This year, three female jockeys will ride in the Cup; Jamie Melham, Celine Gaudray and British expat, Rachel King.

Melham will partner one of the Cup local hopes, Half Yours, who she created history on last start by guiding him to Caulfield Cup success and in doing so, she became the first female jockey to win that major event. Half Yours has quickly risen through the staying ranks and although he copped a penalty for his win in the Caulfield Cup, he still looks well weighted. The wet track will suit him as well. My only concern is how much more does he have to offer, given that he’s been racing since March without a proper break.

Gaudray has some hope of winning the race as well on Torranzino, who has always shown plenty of potential and is starting to realise it. He performed very well two starts ago in The Bart Cummings and then wore down King Charles’ horse Gilded Water to land the Geelong Cup, which the likes of Media Puzzle, American and Dunaden have used as a steppingstone to the Melbourne Cup.

As for King and Arapaho, he would be capable if he produced his best form, but we haven’t seen that lately.

Waller out for second Cup success

As far as the local trainers are concerned, Chris Waller has numbers on his side. Waller will saddle up five of the 24 runners in the staying race, which he won in 2021 with his tough mare, Verry Elleegant.

Of his handful of runners, Waller has three legitimate winning chances, Buckaroo, Valiant King and River Of Stars.

Buckaroo went around as one of the key chances in the race last year but had little luck from a wide barrier draw. However, there is still that slight niggling doubt as to whether he stays two miles. He does look to be hitting his peak at the right, based off his narrow defeat to Via Sistina, the best horse in the country, last time out in the Cox Plate.

While Buckaroo is the class angle, Valiant King and River Of Stars are the proven stayers. Valiant King caused a massive upset to earn his ticket into the Melbourne Cup by winning The Bart Cummings but proved that performance was no fluke by closing off strongly to finish third in the Caulfield Cup. Just in front of him was River Of Stars, who has also been trained to peak for this race and will relish the 3200m, as evidenced by her placing in the Sydney Cup over the same distance earlier this year.

The internationals

The international visitors have already made their presence felt nationwide at this year’s Spring Racing Carnival, with Hong Kong superstar Ka Ying Rising taking out The Everest and Brian Ellison’s globetrotter Onesmoothoperator returning to win the Moonee Valley Gold Cup.

The Cup has a strong international vibe about it this year, as ten of the twenty-four runners are trained outside of Australia. Of them, clearly the highest profile visitor is Al Riffa, who has been ultra-impressive winning his last two starts in Ireland but will have to carry the topweight of 59kg.

Simon and Ed Crisford know the right horses to bring to Australia and Meydaan performed creditably without much luck in the Caulfield Cup. Their booking of James McDonald, the world’s best jockey, is significant but their chances received a significant blow on Saturday night when he was allocated barrier twenty-two.

French galloper Presage Nocturne put in an eye-catching run in the Caulfield Cup and is likely to enjoy the rise in distance. I also feel that Andrew Balding’s Furthur, the winner of the G3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes, has the right profile for the Melbourne Cup, being a well weighted three-year-old like past winners Rekindling and Cross Counter.

Final Analysis

This year’s Melbourne Cup is an open, intriguing, fascinating race where you can make a case for half the field, but I’ve settled on PRESAGE NOCTURNE.

He exceeded expectations with his performance in the Caulfield Cup, he’s better suited over the Melbourne Cup distance, he’s drawn well in barrier nine and will have no issues with a rain affected surface. Half Yours is the pick of the locals, he’s done everything right this preparation, has also drawn well, and looks to have beaten the handicapper so to speak.

Connections are praying for the rain for him too. Valiant King has found form at the right time and is well weighted. I also like Furthur from a weights and measures point of view, and although I can see Al Riffa running a decent race for the jockey of the Carnival, Mark Zahra, the topweight of 59kg looks too much for him to overcome.

If you’re looking for value, then River Of Stars and Torranzino are worth consideration from an each way point of view.

Prediction

6. PRESAGE NOCTURNE

14. Half Yours

24. Valiant King

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