Racing.com journalist Edward Sadler provides his analysis and predictions ahead of the 2026 Lexus Melbourne Cup.
The first Tuesday in November is almost here and that means one thing in racing: it’s Melbourne Cup time. The Cup holds a perfect place in the Australian sporting calendar, taking place weeks after the end of the local football season and just before the cricket gets under way.
Melbourne Cup Day is a public holiday in Melbourne, while nationwide, it’s a celebration of racing. Twenty-nine race meetings will be held throughout Australia on Tuesday, pubs will be packed across the country despite it being a workday for most of the nation, and people who don’t normally have an interest in racing will have a wager on it or buy a ticket in a sweep.
Although it’s a significant Australian event and part of our culture, the Cup is now an international event. Horses from Ireland, Japan, France, Germany and England have all won the Cup, while this year, it looms as a battle between the British, Irish and locals.
LET HIM ENTERTAIN US
Away from the Cup, one of the biggest incentives for people to head to Flemington on Tuesday is to see British pop icon Robbie Williams perform live. Williams will play three songs prior to the Cup before returning for a 75-minute show after the last race, all of which is free for Cup Day ticketholders.
British participants could also be singing when they’re winning after the big two-mile race. Roger Varian’s stayer Enfjaar stuck on solidly to run third in the Caulfield Cup at his first Australian start, with those form lines standing up strongly, thanks to fourth placegetter Cosmic Crusader’s subsequent triumph in the Cox Plate. I also think that Hopewell Rock can run a big race for trainer George Boughey; he’s got a lightweight, the booking of rising star jockey Zac Lloyd is a wise one and I was taken by his performance to finish second in the Ebor, which historically has been a good guide to the Cup (replay below).
Wine Dark Sea from the Harry Charlton stable is the final member of the British travelling trio. He would need to improve from what he did in the Caulfield Cup, but connections believe that he’ll be better suited at Flemington instead of the tighter turning Caulfield circuit.
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JOSEPH’S LUCK OF THE IRISH
In the '90s and 2000s, Dermot Weld was the Irishman that the Aussies had to beat. These days, it’s Joseph O’Brien.
The star young trainer has won the Melbourne Cup twice before and is the last international trainer to capture the Cup when he prepared Twilight Payment to win it in 2020.
O’Brien has assembled a strong squad of five runners for his assault on Australia’s most famous race this year, and all of them are well credentialled stayers. Trustyourinstinct has won a proven Melbourne Cup lead up race in the Curragh Cup, Sons And Lovers is an experienced traveller who ran very well in the Kilternan Stakes last time out, James J Braddock is a Derby placegetter who’s been purchased by Australian interests, Goodie Two Shoes is back for more after finishing second in the race last year, while Kizlyar won what proved to be a decent form race at Royal Ascot in June.
In a year where there’s no star stayer and the locals are quite an even bunch, O’Brien has chosen the right time to stack up his Cup numbers as he bids to become the first European to win the race three times. He’s also brought with him a strong travelling crew, including leviathan owner JP McManus, who’s experiencing his first Melbourne Cup Carnival. Legendary jumps jockey and media presenter Sir AP McCoy was also spotted at Flemington on Saturday.
MAHER MANS THE FORT FOR THE HOME SIDE
If the Aussies are to hold on to the iconic Melbourne Cup trophy, it’s most likely going to be through Ciaron Maher.
It’s already been an incredible Spring Carnival for one of the most dominant figures in Australian racing. In Sydney, Maher landed The Everest as his mare Tempted upstaged Hong Kong champion Ka Ying Rising, while in Melbourne, Maher has enjoyed top-level success in races like the Manikato Stakes, Thousand Guineas and Coolmore Stud Stakes.
On Tuesday, Maher will saddle up seven runners in the great two-mile handicap and you could mount a case for six of them winning it. Antepost favourite Point Of Law is Maher’s most fascinating runner, the former British galloper who was owned by King Charles III before he was sold to Australian interests and joined Maher’s stable. He was a comprehensive winner of the Geelong Cup at his first start Down Under, but as a lightly raced three-year-old from the northern hemisphere, does he have the necessary seasoning and professionalism required to win a Melbourne Cup?
As for the rest of Maher’s contevnders, Juja Kibo has won his last two starts and was impressive in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, Mr Monaco is in excellent form and will relish any give in the ground, Shockletz looks dangerous with her lightweight, Middle Earth’s whole year has revolved around this race after finishing third in it in 2025, while Zahrann produced the best Melbourne Cup trial in the Caulfield Cup.
Should one of Maher’s magnificent seven emerge triumph on Tuesday, it would be the exclamation mark on a Spring Carnival which he has been the standout trainer for, whilst providing him with his second success in the great race.
ANALYSIS
The Melbourne Cup is a notoriously difficult race to pick the winner of and this year’s renewal is particularly challenging. I’ve settled on JUJA KIBO as my on top selection as he’s in form at the right time and I really liked the way that he quickened off a slow tempo to win at Flemington last start.
Hopewell Rock is my pick of the international visitors. I thought his performance in the Ebor Handicap was very good, he proved that he can handle himself in a big field handicap race, he’s drawn a reasonable barrier, is lightly raced and looks well weighted.
Shockletz will be peaking on Tuesday and is the horse down the bottom of the weights that can run a big race. Zahrann has been building nicely towards this race and has got out to a very backable price. Goodie Two Shoes is my pick of the O’Brien runners based off what she did last year and following a solid season in Europe where she wasn’t overly taxed.
Point Of Law could well be the most talented horse in the race, but he was inclined to over race and he wanted to lay in in the Geelong Cup, and I worry that this race may have come up too soon for him. Sons And Lovers and Trustyourinstinct have the class and credentials to be competitive, but the weights and barriers are against them.
Melbourne Cup Prediction:
11. JUJA KIBO
12. Hopewell Rock
24. Shockletz
Published at 15:00 GMT on 01/11/26
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