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Martin Dixon analysis of The Horse Watchers' runners


Martin Dixon of The Horse Watchers gives his verdict on the team's three-strong challenge at York on Friday.

Upcoming runners

Rhoscolyn - 13:30 York

Everyone knows he's more of a soft-ground horse so we could have done with some more rain for him, but he has a good draw in stall 1. He's been to York a handful of times and has never really produced his form there, so he's got questions over whether he's able to show his form at York and questions whether the ground is soft enough for him, but he seems in good order at home and there's no reason not to let him take his chance. You couldn't be full of confidence looking at his career record, given the track and conditions seemingly aren't his optimum.

Hornsea Bay - 14:40 York

He's been a frustrating horse as he's consistently run solid races but hasn't managed to get his head in front, and he's starting to become a bit expensive to follow from a punter's point of view. But he's not really had luck on his side on his last couple of starts. This is another competitive three-year-old handicap but the set-up of the race and the track look suitable for him, so I think he'll be very competitive. Whether he can convert that to getting his head in front, we'll have to wait and see. I think he'll run well.

Mikael Barzalona celebrates on Daryz
Read: Timeform ratings update from Arc weekend

Daring Legend - 17:00 York

He's up against a lot of the same old faces we've run against previously. He's been to York twice this year, and one of them was a very good run when he finished second, and on the other occasion he ran perfectly well and was only beaten a couple of lengths, for all he finished in midfield. His two York runs suggest the track suits, he's got a good draw in stall 1 and there looks like there will be a strong pace, so he should hopefully get a good position just in behind the leaders.

He only ran at Newcastle six days ago, but he went through that race as if he's in really good form and just ended up making his challenge on the outside and probably too early, so I think there were excuses. It's a quick turnaround but he's a horse who takes his racing well and still seems in good form. It's going to require a career best off a mark of 80 and it's a very competitive race, but I think he has an each-way chance if the race maps out the right way for him.

Ribble Vibe -16:30 York, Saturday

He needs to conclusively prove his stamina, but when he went to York last month for a two-mile handicap the pace was on the steadier side and he took a bit of settling early on. He ran very well, especially as it wasn't a clean race for him as when he was starting to make his challenge from off the pace he got caught up amongst horses. It was all a bit muddling and we definitely want to explore two miles again to find out if he does stay in a more evenly-run race in which he settles better.

We've been happy with how he's been running. We only paid 8,000 guineas for him and he's been competitive off marks in the 80s, and some of his form has a strong look to it, like the second to Paddy The Squire at Thirsk. The winner of the Southwell race last time is a very progressive horse on the all-weather, and this is a bit of a drop in grade for him as he's slipped to a mark of 80.

I think he'll be competitive. Whether the final furlong finds him out we'll have to see, but I think it's the right grade, the right track and if he does stay the trip I think he'll go well.


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