Malcolm Boyle's statistics guide to today's racing

Saturday Stat Attack – Final day of the St Leger Festival

DONCASTER (Six year study period unless stated):

43 races – 16 winning favourites – 33/43 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Average Placepot dividend: £121.57

Highest dividend: £235.80 (2016) - Lowest dividend: £14.20 (2014)

7 winners—‘Team Hannon’ (4 for Richard Senior at 16/1, 8/1, 7/1 &11/4 – 3 for Richard Junior at 14/1, 11/2 & 10/11*) – 1 runner today:

Regimented (4.10)

Leading trainers this week after Day 3 – and their final runners at this year’s St Leger meeting:

3/5—Roger Varian (12/1, 7/2* & 2/1) – 3 runners today:

Compas Scoobie (1.50), Defoe (3.35) & King Bolete (5.55)

2/4—Clive Cox (16/1 & 6/4) – 1 runner today: Grand Koonta (3.00, NR)

2/7—Karl Burke (8/1 & 11/4*) – 1 runner today:

You’re Fired (4.45)

1/1—David Elsworth (2/1*) – 1 runner today: Sir Dancealot (2.25)

1/1—Ismail Mohammed (9/2) – No more runners

1/2—Owen Burrows (13/8) – 1 runners today: Muntazah (4.45)

1/2—Robert Cowell (13/2) – 1 runner today: Evergate (1.50)

1/2—Michael Mullineaux (11/1) – No more runners (anywhere) this week

1/2—Roger Teal (11/2) – No more runners at Doncaster this week

1/3—Simon Crisford (5/2*) – 1 runner today: Red Mist (3.00)

1/3—Sir Michael Stoute (9/4*) – 1 runner today: Crystal Ocean (3.35)

1/4—William Haggas (Evens*) – 1 runner today: Battered (4.45)

1/4—Mark Johnston (11/8*) – 2 runners today:

Dream Today (3.00) & Ventura Knight (4.10)

1/4—Aidan O’Brien (8/1) – 8 runners today:

Spirit Of Valor & Peace Envoy (2.25), Mendelssohn & Seahenge (3.00) & Capri, Venice Beach, Douglas Macarthur & The Anvil (3.35)

1/5—Ralph Beckett (25/1) – No more runners at Doncaster this week

1/5—Tim Easterby (5/1) – 2 runners today:

Bossipop (1.50) & Just Hiss (4.45)

1/5—Paul Midgley (9/1) – 1 runner today: Line Of Reason (1.50)

1/11—Richard Hannon (11/4) – 1 runners today:

Regimented (4.10)

Represented trainers in the St Leger (3.35) – number of winners in the race:

4 winners—John Gosden

4 winners—Aidan O’Brien

1 winner—Sir Michael Stoute

1 winner—Roger Varian

No winners for Andrew Balding, Brian Meehan and Joseph O’Brien

Race by race stats/facts/selections at Doncaster today:

1.50 (Class 2 Portland Handicap): Harry Hurricane has finished second and third in the last two renewals of this opening cavalry charge, though George Baker’s raider comes to the gig four pounds worse off with last year’s winner Captain Colby. No horse has won the Portland in the last six years when emerging from a single figure stall which also suggests that placings will be confirmed from twelve months ago. It’s worth noting that two clear market leaders have won this contest within the last seven years, accompanied by a joint favourite for good measure. To confuse matters relating to the two horses mentioned in dispatches, eight of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 9/1, which favours Harry Hurricane over Captain Colby.

2.25 (Group 2 all aged seven furlong event): Breton Rock was the only previous course winner in the field when winning this race last year and once again, David Simcock’s representative is the only horse in the field to have won on Town Moor. A penalty incurred for his Group 2 Lennox Stakes at Glorious Goodwood this season will make things tougher this time around however, with the vote going to Hugo Palmer’s consistent five-year-old Home Of The Brave who looks to have primed for this event. The last four winners have scored at a top price of 7/2, even though the stats only confirm one successful favourite of late.

3.00 (Group 2 Champagne Stakes): Just 52 runners have contested the Champagne Stakes during the last nine years and it remains one of the mysteries in modern day racing why this event fails to attract more runners. Mythical Magic looks a worthy favourite on this occasion, though he is no certainty by any means, albeit Charlie Appleby would be winning the race for the third time on five years if his Ifraaj colt can oblige. Appleby's record is even more impressive as the stable was not represented in one of the ‘missing years’. Six of the last eight renewals have been won by favourites, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last decade was returned at 8/1.

3.35 (Group 1 St Leger Stakes): Some readers might have been surprised to find that John Gosden has saddled as many winners as Aidan O’Brien in the St Leger, and that Sir Michael Stoute has only secured one victory, which was gained by Conduit nine years ago. The final Classic of the season is not as predictable as it once was, with only two successful market leaders having won during the last decade. During that time, the majority of bookmakers cheered home gold medallists which were returned at 25/1, 22/1, 14/1 & 12/1. Those four outsiders have secured those victories within the last eight years. If an outsider is to score again this time around, I would opt for Raheen House who could become a back end specialist in terms of when horses gain the majority of their successes.

4.10 (Class 2 Nursery Handicap): John Gosden does not target nursery events too often, so it’s worth noting that he has saddled two winners and a placed horse via his last three runners in this two-year-old handicap. Gosden has declared Westerland this time around, with Regimented (Richard Hannon’s only runner at Doncaster today) expected to offer the biggest challenge on the run to the line. Nine of the last 10 winners have scored at 8/1 or shorter, with favourites of one description or another scoring on four occasions during the last decade.

4.45 (One mile Class 2 all aged handicap): Three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 4-3 during the last ten years, with Muntazah and Battered are expected to lead their respective vintages to best effect on this occasion. Only one clear market leader (alongside a joint favourite) has scored via the last nine contests when three winners were returned in double figures. Five of the last six winners have carried a minimum weight of 9/1 which favours Muntazah over Battered if you are swayed by such trends.

5.55 (Class 2 all aged 12 furlong handicap): Saeed Bin Suroor saddles only his second runner at Doncaster this week, with Game Changer being his only runner anywhere this weekend. Roger Varian has had a week to remember and King Bolete could emerge as the value for money call given his overnight quote of 4/1. Four of the last seven renewals have been won by favourites.