Stats guru Mal Boyle crunches the numbers ahead of the second day of the St Leger Festival at Doncaster.
DONCASTER (Six year study period unless stated):
44 races – 8 winning favourites – 37/44 winners scored at a top price of 12/1
Average Placepot dividend: £1,356.40
Highest dividend: £5,101.30 (2015) - Lowest dividend: £26.80 (2016)
Leading trainers on the corresponding day during the study period:
4 winners—Richard Fahey (14/1, 12/1, 10/1 & 8/1) – 9 runners today:
Paddy power & Khelman (1.20), Clubbable (1.50), Zap, Great Prospector, Cosa Nostra, International Man, Requinto Dawn & Jedi Master (3.35)
4 winners—Luca Cumani (10/1, 8/1, 8/1 & 7/2) – 2 runners today:
Aljezeera (3.00) & Pacharana (4.35)
Leading trainers this week after Day 1 – and their next runners at Doncaster:
2/2—Roger Varian (7/2* & 2/1) – 1 runner today: Laugh A Minute (3.35)
1/1—Owen Burrows (13/8) – Next runner on Friday
1/1—Robert Cowell (13/2) – Next runner on Friday
1/1—Simon Crisford (5/2*) – 1 runner today: Dark Rose Angel (2.25)
1/1—Tim Easterby (5/1) – 2 runners today: Kenny The Captain (1.20) & Silver Starlight (1.50)
1/2—Michael Mullineaux (11/1) – No more runners (anywhere) this week
Race by race stats/facts/selections at Doncaster today:
1.20 (Lady Riders’ handicap): This is a new race on the card and being the second of the ‘novelty’ events (Lady riders), Tim Easterby might double up from the first day (Leger Legends) by saddling Kenny The Captain to winning effect.
1.50 (Class 2 two-year-old handicap): Three favourites have won during the last decade though equally, three gold medallists were returned at 28/1, 16/1 & 12/1. Richard Fahey has only saddled runners in two of the last five renewals and having won both of the relevant contests, Richard will confident that Clubbable can record a hat trick on behalf of the yard.
2.25 (Group 2 May Hill Stakes): Eight of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 7/2, statistics which include five successful market leaders. Aidan O’Brien is looking for his first victory in the race and his heavy/soft ground winner Sizzling should prove popular at 8/1 given the conditions of the track. Aidan’s lack of winners does not detract from his chance if you are looking for positive trends because aside from a Richard Hannon Senior perspective, none of the represent trainers have yet to record a success in the race. Indeed form a brief trend viewpoint, Irish trainers (Jim Bolger and Edward Lynam) have secured two of the last three renewals.
3.00 (Group 2 Park Hill Stakes): Four-year-olds lead the three-year-old 5-4 during the last decade, whilst older horses have only won two of the last 40 renewals. Datailed stands out like a sore thumb at 16/1 in a place this morning, though those odds will not be relevant by the time you read this column I’ll wager, especially as Jospeh O’Brien’s raider has won under heavy and soft conditions already, albeit in handicap company.
3.35 (Weatherbys 2-Y-O Stakes): The first point to digest is that despite the number of runners, bookmakers are entitled to only pay each way bets out on the first three horses home, whereby you should look out for better offers if they can be found. This is particularly important if you fancy an outsider to land the spoils, as five of the last ten winners have scored at 100/1, 20/1, 16/1, 14/1 & 10/1. Just two (11/4 & 2/1) favourites have prevailed during the period. Richard Fahey has secured three of the last seven renewals though with six declarations here, Richard has hardly given potential investors an easy lead into the race. That said, plenty of overnight support has appeared for Great Prospector though speculative punters might prefer to latch onto the (40/1) win and place option Requinto Dawn, who is the only course winner in the field.
4.05 (Class 2 all aged handicap): Seven renewals have slipped by since the last favourite prevailed, whilst four-year-olds have secured five victories during the last decade. Al Neksh is the lone vintage representative this year. That said, I cannot detect a subsequent runner in the race for Ed Dunlop (Dark Red) since Ed saddled Wasan to win the race back in 2008. Ryan Moore (20% strike rate for the trainer) takes the ride aboard Dark Red.
4.35 (Class 2 all aged handicap for fillies): Luca Cumani has saddled five of his last 14 runners to winning effect and having won with the inaugural winning favourite in this race last year, Pacharana makes plenty of each way appeal given the double figure quote which is generally available this morning. I’m hoping that we can go one better in today’s finale, having made a case for yesterday’s 16/1 runner up (Suwaan) in the last race on Wednesday.

