Lydia Hislop Road To the Investec Derby

Road to the Investec Derby 2017

Click on race title for full result and video replay

Ballysax Stakes – Group 3 10f Leopardstown (G/Y) 08/04/17

The betting and the presence of Ryan Moore in the saddle indicated Yucatan was the Ballydoyle anointed but he could neither win nor do best of the Aidan O’Brien-trained crew. Instead, Rekindling squeezed up in the inside rail in the straight to win this earliest of Derby trials for Joseph O’Brien.

That the nine-strong field turned for home as a herd testified to a steady enough pace up front – and perhaps little distinguishing talent. Rekindling had flopped in Group One company on his final start for David Wachman as a two-year-old but produced the decisive finishing burst here.

Douglas Macarthur was better positioned but got outspeeded by the winner in the straight before sticking on nicely in the style of a stayer and denying stable companion Yucatan of third.

Fellow team member Capri was stuck in rear and got shuffled back further when Seamie Heffernan tried to extract him for a challenge at the top of the straight. But even then he wasn’t travelling as well as Rekindling and could only stay on steadily, without really getting involved.

Feilden Stakes – Listed 9f Newmarket (G/F) 18/04/17

Having started his season as the beaten favourite when third behind two less experienced rivals in a competitive Doncaster handicap, here Khalidi made a smooth transition to Listed company with a neck defeat of Salouen.

The winner had been squeezed out soon after the gates opened but quickly recovered to settle well in mid-division on the far outside of the field of seven. Pumped along to challenge going into the Dip, he picked up the more prominently ridden Salouen inside the final furlong and was pulling away at the line.

Salouen had been more ambitiously campaigned as a juvenile, rewarding his connections with two placed efforts at Group One level. He lacked the benefit of a prep run but clearly retains all his battling qualities.

He hasn’t raced since but crammed in plenty of experience last year. In the Derby, he’s going three furlongs further than he’s tried before but there’s enough encouragement in his pedigree to argue he’ll stay it, with the dam having already produced some stayers and sire Canford Cliffs imbuing more stamina than he displayed as a racehorse.

The main question is whether Salouen is quite good enough but he more than deserves his chance to find out and 66/1 rather insults him.

Epsom Derby Trial – 10f conditions event Epsom (Gd) 26/04/17

Just 12 days earlier, Permian had thrown away a 11.5f handicap at Bath by hanging left in behind the leaders instead of putting his best foot forward. Having raced six times as a two-year-old, winning twice, it would have been generous to blame greenness.

Perhaps he was just rusty on that seasonal debut because at Epsom he was already a more straightforward conveyance – notwithstanding his gawkiness round Tattenham Corner and lugging left down the siren-like camber in the straight.

He made the most of getting first run on the smoother travelling winner and was only caught in the shadow of the post by Cracksman, who did well to run Permian down after getting caught in traffic at the top of the straight.

These details and their respective profiles at the time suggested the well-balanced winner would extend his superiority were they to meet again. Cracksman was having only his second start and is clearly open to marked further improvement.

Yet he has not raced since, trainer John Gosden ruling the ground too soft to contest the Dante. Clearly, his inexperience for a 19-strong Derby field – the largest since Kris Kin beat 19 rivals in 2003 – is a concern. His trainer wanted to run him again so it must bother him, too.

Cracksman���s stamina beyond ten furlongs is also not assured either, even if he is one of the more self-contained sons of Frankel. However, should the race be rough – and there’s enough evidence to think it might be – then Cracksman’s ability to travel, and therefore attain a workable position, might prove the more pertinent factor.

8.5f Epsom maiden (Gd) 26/04/17

Less than two hours after Cracksman nutted Permian on the line, Diore Lia made her racecourse debut. It was a relatively inauspicious start in any context but certainly for a horse destined to contest the Derby little more than five weeks later.

Having made a slow and awkward start, she was green and outpaced, then came three wide round Tattenham Corner and hung left down the camber. She toiled home 25.5 lengths behind the winner.

2000 Guineas – Group One 1m Newmarket (G/F) 06/05/17

Eminent was clearly disadvantaged by a relatively steadily run Guineas and there wasn’t much Jim Crowley could do about it.

He played his cards doubtless sooner than he’d have preferred, asking for an effort over three furlongs out but nonetheless finding his horse tapped for speed as the pace lifted. This caused Eminent to shift left in the Dip before being squeezed out inside the final furlong. Without that, he would probably have finished fifth rather than sixth.

Stepping up to ten furlongs would clearly suit this son of Frankel but the Derby’s mile-and-a-half trip is an unknown. It’s definitely worth a shot, with a number of the progeny from this most feted of emergent sires shaping as though a test of stamina is what they want.

Trainer Martyn Meade continues to carefully manage Eminent’s temperament, reporting that his overnight trip to Epsom for his Breakfast With The Stars gallop went smoothly. To date this meticulous preparation has paid off, with the horse’s public demeanour betraying little of his trainer’s private concerns. The razzmatazz of Epsom will be a further test, however, and the 7/1 at which he’s trading is about his money.

Newmarket Stakes – Listed 10f Newmarket (G/F) 06/05/17

The real Khalidi didn’t turn up this day because he was never travelling – in stark contrast to his usual way of going – from an early stage. Frankie Dettori has since wondered whether it was the effect of a third race in a relatively short space of time.

Instead it was left to the increasingly reliable Permian to triumph in an odd race. The leader set a strong gallop and was allowed to pull well clear of the field until Ryan Moore asked Permian to chase him down entering the Dip. This he did before surging clear from over a furlong out.

Moore described him as “ungainly” in the Dip but was adamant he would stay 12 furlongs. You can read doubt into his pedigree but his half-brother New Caledonia came to improve for that trip and Permian’s season to date has been a slightly classier fast-forward version of his sibling’s last term.

Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial – Group Three 10f Leopardstown (G/F) 07/05/17

Yucatan was again sent off favourite here, only to taste defeat one more time. Instead, the sturdy Douglas Macarthur managed to repel both Capri’s earlier attentions and the late thrust of their more fancied stablemate.

The winner was left alone on the lead for much of the race and duly took advantage, finding plenty for pressure and staying on stoutly as befits a full brother to 2012 Oaks heroine, Was.

Were it not for him being handed the widest draw at Epsom – and therefore prey to some potential inconvenience from slow-starting Glencadam Glory and slow Diore Lia – it would be easy to envisage him outrunning odds of 25/1 and hitting the frame. As it is, he faces being used up early in the quest for a prominent position alongside the John Gosden massive. Expect him to still be hanging on in there, mind.

Capri shapes like a St Leger type – if Venice Beach isn’t already earmarked for that glory. He laid down his challenge to Douglas Macarthur from a good way out but could never quite get past and was reeled in for second on the nod at the line by the less advantageously positioned Yucatan. Ideally, Capri might also prefer the ground to be softer than likely at Epsom.

11f Southwell maiden (Fibresand) 08/05/17

At the fourth time of asking, Pealer opened his career account here in utterly emphatic fashion, under an amplification of the positive tactics that clearly suit him best. It was a race requiring little winning but he did dismantle it on the bridle, drawing further clear inside the final furlong in the style of a horse with a fertile middle-distance campaign ahead.

Then – screeching brakes – he turns up in the Derby and not a plump three-year-old 12f handicap. John Gosden has explained Pealer has been working so well with Cracksman that he’s forced his way into the picture.

Yet you can’t help but wonder whether his trainer has been having flashbacks of this year’s 2000 Guineas – and other tactical master-classes from Ballydoyle. On waking, perhaps he decided he didn’t want to journey to Epsom on merely the hope of his horses dancing to a tune they like and hence this forward-goer made the Epsom cut.

Whether that excellent thinking means I can forgive Gosden for destroying a highly workable handicap rating of 85 is another matter. He’s not a sacrificial lamb because he’ll be ridden in the manner that suits him best, too. This horse will definitely stay and stay some more, so mark-raising proximity beckons without him being likely to prove good enough.

Chester Vase – Group Three 12.5f Chester (Gd) 11/05/16

This Aidan O’Brien-trained 1-2-3 was headed by Venice Beach, who’d only got off the mark at Tipperary the previous month. This horse has worn a tongue-tie for his past three starts and cheekpieces the last twice, the latter aid reminiscent of the yard’s 2013 Vase/Derby hero, Ruler Of The World.

After tarrying to enable slow-starting stablemate and pacemaker The Anvil up his inside, Ryan Moore got Venice Beach settled beautifully in the ideal position – on the rail, tracking the leader. However, his mount did require some urging to hold his position as the race began to develop.

It might be that this was merely an element of inexperience because the winner also pricked his ears and dossed a touch when driven to lead in the short straight. Certainly that was the post-race party line, with his trainer describing him as “a little bit lazy and a little bit babyish”.

However, on Saturday he must fight for his position in a field of 19 around Tattenham Corner and all the other discombobulating delights of Epsom. There must be a high possibility that Donnacha O’Brien, who resumes at the controls, struggles to get him to the right place at the right time.

Chester runner-up Wings Of Eagles is steadily improving on paper and some felt he could have given Venice Beach more of a fright. Arguably the damage to those ambitions was done in the first few strides, when he was steadied in rear while the winner slotted into his rail position ahead.

He made a three-wide move to challenge in the latter stages but his head carriage was awkward and he lurched right for a reminder at the top of the straight. He then made up ground belatedly for mostly hands and heels but doesn’t look the most naturally cooperative vessel, so Epsom may come as a shock.

The Anvil doesn’t impress as the ideal pacemaker, if that is indeed the role he’s slated to play on Saturday. Chester wasn’t the first time he was slowly into stride, unaccustomed as he was to making the running. If he repeats that habit, his part in Epsom’s proceedings is likely to become superfluous at best.

Dee Stakes – Listed 10.5f Chester (G/F) 12/05/17

Ryan Moore needed to roust Cliffs Of Moher along after a tardy start from a wide-ish draw. This early securing of a prominent position reaped a key advantage, not just because those racing forward were favoured but also because his mount is not a ready traveller.

He needed to be nudged along as the race developed and got mildly outpaced before being hard ridden to get on top in the short straight. He was pulling away at the line and will probably improve for a step up in trip, both on this evidence and on pedigree.

Don’t worry if you see him sweating at Epsom – that’s clearly just something he does – but the track might be an issue. He’ll need to have grown up fast since Chester because his wandering under pressure suggested inexperience might still have been at play there.

Moore spoke of some rustiness first time out and discomfort on “loose” ground, but that Cliffs Of Moher “kept finding”. “His best furlong was his last one,” he observed. Team O’Brien is also certain the horse will come on for his seasonal debut because he hadn’t been ready to go for that long prior to this success.

From a Ballydoyle cast of thousands, this is Moore’s chosen one. It had appeared the obvious way to jump but without yet seeming to be the no-brainer that some pre-race decisions can be for those lads. If this horse is capable of holding a good position on Saturday, he’s got the right man on board to find it.

Lingfield 11.5f maiden (G/S) 12/05/17

There was a shade more encouragement – probably for two miles – in Diore Lia’s second start, upped to the Lingfield Derby Trial trip. She got outpaced before plugging on to a degree in the straight but was still beaten by 18.5 lengths.

It’s unlikely to be good news if she does manage to beat a rival home in the Derby because that will mean something has gone badly wrong. Instead, let’s hope this much-discussed protracted diversion ends safely for all concerned.

Lingfield Derby Trial – Listed 11.5f Lingfield (Gd) 13/05/17

This victory from Best Solution gets more impressive the more often you watch it. It’s an utterly straightforward performance: he breaks well, settles, breezes around the downhill left-handed bend and is merely shaken up to lead two furlongs out, striding clear. The race didn’t take much winning but he advertised his ability to best effect.

Remove his aversion to dirt and he boasts a steadily improving profile. You might worry on a fast turf surface but Epsom is never like that, especially this weekend. That means it’s just a case of whether he’s classy enough. He should run well, provided he doesn’t take a Godolphin-patented backwards step on the big day.

Glencadam Glory chased him home because something had to. Not for the first time, he missed the break – the best you can say is that it wasn’t as deleterious as the 12 lengths he lost at Sandown previously. He was then on and off the bridle, looked awkward in the straight and was hard ridden to clamber into second. He never remotely had any chance with the winner.

Afterwards, John Gosden spoke of having “ironed out” a few undesirable traits with this horse and boldly asserted that getting him to jump out promptly at the start would be just one more of them.

The horse was led to the start at Lingfield and, despite his trainer’s ministrations, you wonder whether the cauldron of noise that is Epsom will blow his mind just before he again blows the start…

As one of only two horses drawn wider than Diore Lia, it does mean he can do the chivalrous thing and keep her company at a respectful distance from the main action – initially at least, in his case. 

10f 3yo 0-85 handicap – Windsor (Gd) 15/05/17

Crowned Eagle had ended his juvenile campaign with an emphatic maiden success at Nottingham and, on a mark of 85, looked poised to start his new season in the best possible way in handicap company.

In a large field at Windsor, he was able to hold his position happily and required mostly only hands and heels to draw clear of his rivals in the straight. Frankie Dettori gave him a reminder at the furlong marker and then coasted home in a manner that suggested another handicap would be the plan, if only they could convince the handicapper that he hadn’t just screamed in.

Instead – screeching brakes, again – he winds up in the Derby instead of that lovely 3yo handicap at Musselburgh on the same day. Clearly John Gosden can’t get no sleep.

Yet again, obviously, there’s plenty o’method here also. Crowned Eagle is a son of Gull Wing – herself a half-sister to dual 2009 Oaks heroine Sariska – a half-brother to Eagle Top, Wings Of Desire and The Lark. Knowing this family well, Gosden will be aware they have about a season of sanity in them before hitting self-destruct. It makes sense to press fast-forward with this colt.

Furthermore, handily he’s a natural front-runner to keep the Ballydoyle pace-vanguard honest and the application of first-time cheekpieces on Saturday suggests the big dice have been rolled. He’s got some knee action but it won’t be fast ground. He’s a lively outsider at 40/1.

Dante – Group Two 10.5f York (G/S) 18/05/17

This was the final element in The Making Of Permian. Trainer Mark Johnston reported that Godolphin chief executive and racing manager John Ferguson had insisted on supplementing this horse for the Dante, so it followed when he won untroubled that he should be supplemented for the Derby, too.

It was straightforward at York: the worst that happened was being carried right at the start but Permian was clearly unfussed by this and recovered to track the leaders in a settled fashion. He then crept closer towards the inner in the straight before leading over a furlong out and keeping on strongly.

Afterwards, jockey Franny Norton spoke of delaying his challenge, having felt he’d made his move too soon at Epsom against Cracksman when spotting that horse was boxed in. He was cautious about whether further than this ten-furlong trip would prove Permian’s optimum and also on whether he possesses the requisite class for the Derby.

But as things stand this horse arguably boasts the best form on offer. Johnston believes he’s improved since defeated by Cracksman and his charge’s increased professionalism offers some evident ballast for that assertion. He should run his race and at 11/1 is overpriced.

Runner-up Benbatl was keen from his wide-ish draw and took up a slightly more prominent position than the winner. Wound up to challenge in the straight, he stuck to his task likeably before finding he had no extra approaching the line. It’s hard to imagine him improving for the step up in trip, although a first-time hood (and tongue-tie) might help him keep a lid on it. The hubbub of Epsom will clamour at his ears, however.

Back in fourth, Rekindling was never able to get on terms with the leaders and persistently sought to hang left in the straight. He didn’t find the clearest of paths in which to gallop but that was greatly of his own making and he didn’t seem able to muster an effective challenge anyway. He may just have caught more capable rivals on the early-season hop in the Ballysax.

10f Newbury maiden (Soft) 19/05/17

Better late than never, Dubai Thunder made his racecourse debut and registered an emphatic success in relatively testing conditions. He was a tad slow to find his stride but swiftly responded to chivvying to attain a prominent position. It was plain sailing from that point on: merely shaken up two furlongs out, he galloped straight past the leader for a ten-length success.

This colt boasts the pedigree to be as smart as that opening bid suggested, as a half-brother to dual Group One winner Farhh as well as Racing History and Basem. His sire Dubawi provides the distinct hope for the Derby trip and the way in which he powered away from an admittedly far inferior field at Newbury also gave encouragement for the task.

The problem is his palpable inexperience. He was green in victory, having been babyish and coltish beforehand. In that context, stall 1 at Epsom is bad news as it forces Adam Kirby’s hand, tactically speaking, right from the outset. Softer ground would also have helped him.

Cocked Hat Stakes – Listed 11f Goodwood (Gd) 26/05/17

Khalidi bounced back and then some here, with a fluid five-length success that bought him access to the Derby via supplementary means. He was even conceding a 3lb penalty to his rivals for his earlier Feilden triumph.

A high-mettled stablemate had torn off in front but Frankie Dettori always looked confident on the winner, winding his mount up from the top of the hill to challenge. The leader briefly inconvenienced them by hanging into their path and Khalidi himself lugged right a little but his superiority was so marked that he could afford to be eased. He lowered the course record in the process.

It might be that this race (formerly the Predominate) hasn’t provided a Derby winner since Troy in 1979 but Khalidi – proven on downhill tracks and likely to improve further for an extra furlong – is a highly credible contender who’s rather underestimated at 25/1. 

Investec Derby selections

1st Cracksman
2nd Crowned Eagle
3rd Permian