Lydia Hislop: Road To Cheltenham | Part Four 'Backing him Blind'

It’s been an eventful week, with the no-show of a Festival flop swiftly succeeded by the glorious return of a Cheltenham hero grabbing most of the headlines.

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Another week and the other of the two horses dominating this ante-post market failed to appear as advertised. This time it was Douvan who sent belated apologies.

We haven’t seen him in action since he sustained a stress fracture of the pelvis when contesting this Cheltenham Festival event in March but the Tingle Creek had long been identified as his likely comeback vehicle.

All seemed to be going to plan, albeit that on At The Races the preceding Sunday an abruptly elliptical Mullins stressed in an interview with Matt Chapman that Douvan had “a couple of crucial bits of work to do between now and then and we’ll see what happens after that”. The same applied to Un De Sceaux and Djakadam, he also later added.

(If you’re registered for the ATR website, you can still watch that interview: it’s posted under ‘Latest At The Races Clips’, dated 4th December and titled ‘Willie Mullins exclusive interview’. It’s worth watching, for reasons we will return to. Reference to Douvan starts at 03:06 but you’ll get a better feel for the interview if you watch it from the start.)

As it turned out, while the other two horses presumably came through these “couple of crucial bits of work” to their trainer’s satisfaction, Douvan did not. “He did a fantastic bit of work on Tuesday… delighted with him,” said Mullins on ATR last Thursday. “All he had to do then was ride out yesterday and today, which he did…

“He even did a small little bit of a blow-out this morning and because we knew there were no ferries going out of Ireland today…[details about ferries]…I gave him a little pipe-opener because he wouldn’t be able to do much when he’d have arrived there…

“And I just wasn’t happy with him. And I said, you know what? What’s the point with him going across to England? I wouldn’t be there the morning of the race and I thought I’m not going to leave it up to someone else to have to make a decision. So I thought: better off to take a pull now and wait and we’ll see how he is ourselves over the weekend.”

(You can also view that interview, posted under ‘Latest At The Races Clips’, dated 8th December and titled ‘Douvan ruled out of Tingle Creek’.)

In yet another ATR interview with Mick Fitzgerald on Monday [also on the website, full marks for thoroughness], Mullins elaborated: “He’s ridden out every day this week [but] he just wasn’t 100% right. I wasn’t going to send him over to England and ask one of my staff to make the decision on whether he should run or not. I wasn’t going to go over that early to make that decision either and I just thought, you know what, if you’re in doubt just pull out.

“We have the whole season to go, you know; the Tingle Creek is neither here nor there for us. Hopefully he’ll be all right at Christmas.”

This episode prompted swift comparisons with Nicky Henderson’s handling of Altior’s setback, including by those who felt insufficient comparisons had been made. There were indeed some features of overlap and yet also some key points of difference.

In both cases, it essentially boils down to a horse, widely announced to be running in a particular race, developing a problem – to a greater or seemingly lesser degree – during the preparation for that race.

In Henderson’s case, his subsequent statements betrayed that when questioned he had made positive noises about Altior’s participation when in fact there was already some doubt – albeit not a definitive problem that he could announce.

Mullins’ testimony revealed no such contradictions (that I saw): he had openly stated that Douvan’s Tingle Creek participation was conditional and not absolute (which – newsflash – is the inherent risk for every horse you back ante-post). He subsequently said he only developed concerns about Douvan on Thursday morning and therefore, in the subsequent hours or minutes, did not declare him for Sandown.

As in Altior-cough-gate, an exchange drift and bookmakers’ suspension of the Tingle Creek market pre-dated official news of Douvan’s non-participation, suggesting negative vibes were detectable to somebody prior to Thursday. That means internal procedures and top-down regard for the integrity of information likely to impact on betting markets needs tightening as much at Closutton as it does at Seven Barrows.

There is also a bookmaking angle: whereas Henderson blogs for Unibet, Douvan’s owner Rich Ricci is chairman of BetBright and that – again – generates among the betting public the perception of a potential conflict of interests. That is why modern racehorse stables and their circles of trust (such as owners, staff, vets, farriers, etc.) require conduct that is beyond such reproach.

But unless you want to call Mullins a liar, punters must be sufficiently adult to accept that – provided they are kept informed of connections’ current thinking in a timely manner – plans change and stuff happens. If you don’t like that risk, don’t bet ante-post – or perhaps at all. It’s not as if there’s much juice in most ante-post markets these days anyway.

With that in mind, let’s address the more nuanced element of what took place last week. To reiterate: these next few paragraphs are an adult-only zone. If you find you can’t accept the above reasoning and yet also stretch your empathy to accommodate the following, please don’t come tweeting to me about it.

Returning to that 4th December ATR clip at 03:06, Mullins is asked by Chapman to agree with various reports that Douvan “has got his swagger back”. Mullins replied, with conspicuous if not uncharacteristic brevity: “He seems fine at home; we’re very pleased with him.”

Pressed by Chapman, Mullins attempts equivocation and then mentions the “couple of crucial bits of work” but later, when cajoled further, says: “Can we move on to the next race, Matt?” Pleasingly, Chapman ploughed on: “But you never quite felt he was at his best last season, even when he was winning – is that fair?”

Mullins responded: “I thought he should have been giving me more, considering what he’d been doing the previous season; I thought he should have improved more. This year he looks like he might do that.”

Now, we’ve talked before in this season’s Road about how such comments, voiced by both Ricci and Mullins, are (at best) after-timing and (at worst) a dispiriting lack of candid communication – from the team that brought you Vautour’s late late switch to the Ryanair back in 2016. There was no mention of any doubts with Douvan last term – indeed, quite the opposite.

Why mention this? Well, primarily to drive home this column’s weltanschauung: we are interested in actions not words. Some scrutinisers – too subtle for me – discerned tepid interest from Mullins in the Tingle Creek project a long way off – and that 4th December interview can certainly be read that way.

Did it require merely the slightest tepidity from Douvan’s work to convince Mullins to pull the plug? And/or is his no-show indicative of an ongoing sense of vague dissatisfaction with the horse? It’s not as if the travelling away from his trainer was ultimately the deal-breaker because Mullins also chose not to take up Douvan’s alternative entries at Cork and Punchestown.

One thing we do know (I and others would assert) is that we won’t be seeing Douvan in the King George. That dream is dead. Again. There is no chance on earth that Mullins would step up to a new trip as his next move. You can surely forget 12/1 the Gold Cup, to boot – if that was ever a credible outcome.

In fact, if Douvan comes back at Christmas seemingly as good as ever, I would suggest that increases the likelihood of him sticking religiously to two miles and of Min pitching up in the Ryanair, to the chagrin of this column’s ante-post assertion. (He’s a still-fair 8/1 for that race, if you’re of a safety-first mindset and fancy a saver.)

However, that penultimate sentence actually contains two (no pun intended) conditionals – why not join Mullins if you can’t beat him? If Douvan comes back. And: if Douvan is seemingly as good as ever.

The former ‘if’ is a risk any time, any place, anywhere but Christmas will be the second time already this season that this horse has been due to race – which is why a surprisingly solid 3/1 for the Champion Chase is even less appealing than it was this time last week.

The latter ‘if’ tackles a costly assumption at the price. If he doesn’t shine, I’d argue that his connections, who claim to have been vaguely dissatisfied with him for one reason or another for a year now, will be tempted to try something new… (And that’s even before we start to evaluate what repeatedly beating Sizing John at two miles actually means.)

That said, where Mullins is concerned we must not forget what I’ll think of as The Quevega Rule. He referred to it himself: “The Tingle Creek is neither here nor there for us.” Grade One winners en route (perhaps especially British ones) are valued little compared with the Festivals primarily at Cheltenham but also at Punchestown.

The season-long absence from games of a Mullins-trained horse is more of a subsidence-prone foundation for a contrary case than with most other stables. As a natural-born sceptic, I have learned this the hard way.

All of which cod psychoanalysis leaves this column in danger of the sort of brickbat tweet trainer Nick Williams aimed at Chapman last Saturday, which (I assume) got short shrift in the latter’s On The Line show:

Nonetheless, let’s broadly acknowledge Williams’ point and turn to by far the most tangible piece of information in this division in the past seven days: the coming of age of Politologue in a Douvan-less Tingle Creek, considered a gimme for Fox Norton.

Politologue had finally convinced all those closely involved with him that two-mile chasing was his preferred métier when all but winning the Grade One Maghull Novices’ Chase at Aintree last April.

He was then getting the better of Forest Bihan when failing to fully engage his landing gear a couple of strides after jumping the last cleanly. In the end, stablemate San Benedeto – outpaced into errors when beaten twelve-and-a-half lengths at Sandown last Saturday – managed to run down the lonely left-in-leader on the line.

As a general rule, I don’t like odd falls but I’m giving Politologue a free pass because his absolute asset is highly efficient jumping. That’s why holding him up to get longer trips last season (such as when fourth in the JLT) was never going to play to his strengths. These demanded a relatively positive ride over the minimum trip – as I recall Steve Mellish arguing on Racing UK during his analysis of his Grade Two Ascot success over 2m5f last December.

On that day in history, trainer Paul Nicholls responded: “He doesn’t tell us he’s a two-mile horse at home. If the ground was very testing, that might be a different ball-game. Cheltenham for the Arkle is a very sharp easy two and I wouldn’t ever be looking at him as a Champion Chase horse.

“He’s a stayer really but at the moment I’m not that keen on going three miles with him, although I haven’t discussed it with John [Hales, the horse’s owner] yet. So middle distances this year and then if we’re going to go three [miles], that will be next year.”

Yet Nicholls clearly warmed to the contrary argument when presented with fresh evidence, as any rational human being does, and acknowledged after the Tingle Creek that Politologue had been running over the wrong trip last season. Of course, if it wasn’t for that meddling owner…

“John has always wanted Politologue to be a Gold Cup horse,” said Nicholls. “And that’s why we tried to make him a three-miler. I thought at Haydock and Cheltenham last year we were doing the wrong thing so we went to Aintree. He was unlucky that day so that’s why we’re back to two miles.

“I suspect we’ll go to Ascot now [for the Clarence House] and then on to Cheltenham. At his age, he should only get better.”

Politlogue has been fairly accused of weak finishing but that has mostly been over further, even including his seasonal debut – another factor in his finishing effort – success in the 2m1.5f Haldon Gold Cup last month. There was no sign of a tame finish at Aintree, however, nor indeed at Sandown where only Fox Norton made any inroads on his lead from the last.

I’ve seen it argued that Fox Norton would have beaten Politologue with a cleaner round of jumping. First, I don’t buy that: although he was undoubtedly inconvenienced by an awkward approach to, and mistake at, the second last and gained about a length-and-a-half on the winner from the last, at the line he was being held. Second, one factor begat the other: it’s because Fox Norton isn’t as pacey a two-miler as Politilogue (or, indeed, as Ar Mad or Special Tiara) that he’s induced to make those errors.

Fox Norton had already been niggled along after the last of the formidable Railway Fences in the back straight; both Ar Mad and Charbel travelled better for longer than he did. It was his intrinsic class and fight that got him so close to Politlogue in conditions that favoured the winner.

A bog underfoot might have slowed the pace in the runner-up’s favour but the winner is very adept in testing ground and Fox Norton’s best form – winning Aintree’s Grade One Melling Chase – came on a sound-surface 2m4f. Swings and roundabouts. There’s more on Fox Norton in the Ryanair section.

Will Politologue get up Cheltenham’s final pitiless hill? I’m somewhere in between: I am sure this consideration will be heavily overplayed in the coming months and yet I suspect there are stronger finishers around with just as much mid-race pace – Altior being the obvious one, if he’s there in March.

It was clearly the trip – and perhaps even the company? – that beat Politologue in last term’s JLT; it was nothing to do with the final hill. Let’s say risking him was a far more tempting prospect at 16/1 than the existing 8/1 (in one place, Coral).

That said, there is absolutely no ambiguity about where he will run at the Festival and he is thriving. Not one of the four horses consistently as short or shorter than him in the Champion Chase market with all bookmakers (acknowledging that Coral offer 5/1 about Yorkhill in the unlikely scenario he runs in the right race) can boast both of those things.

To tidy up the Tingle Creek, this was much better from Ar Mad given he’d last been seen pulling up in the Haldon Gold Cup. He was, of course, cut down in his pomp by injury when careering towards the Arkle two seasons ago and raced only once last term – an extremely good fourth to Un De Sceaux in last year’s edition of this race.

Last Saturday, he didn’t jump with the fluency required to capitalise on the pace he himself set but he wasn’t a spent force until after the last. He has reserved his best form for Sandown to date but this was nonetheless encouraging and it would be lovely to see him build on it.

Whether he will be as effective racing left-handed remains a concern but that would be irrelevant if he heads next to the King George – a target trainer Gary Moore initially had in mind for him this time last year.

A rapidly diminishing head further behind him at the line in the Tingle Creek was Charbel – the horse who was famously upsides Altior when falling at the second last in March’s Arkle but ran tamely at Aintree three weeks later. His seasonal debut over hurdles had been only respectable.

First-time cheekpieces and a return to the larger obstacles both appeared to help him get his mojo back. He couldn’t match the winner’s neat jumping in the back straight but hung on in there and was still travelling well enough after the Pond Fence. He hit the penultimate flight but stayed on strongly up the final hill to almost catch Ar Mad come the line.

The plan had been to contest the 2m4f Peterborough Chase until Douvan’s absence caused the Tingle Creek to be reopened and the weather forecast had also placed Huntingdon’s fixture in doubt.

It will be interesting to see how he fares if trainer Kim Bailey does now step him up in trip. On all known evidence, good though he is, he’s not going to make it to the top over two miles.

Nicholls has also concluded that San Benedeto is wanting in this grade over two miles, albeit he felt the ground was tackier than the horse would prefer. The Grade Two Desert Orchid remains a Christmas option, however.

It is very sad that the highly likeable Sir Valentino suffered a fatal injury in his last-fence fall at Sandown, so soon after returning to his best at Ascot. Massive condolences to all those connected with him.

Ryanair Chase

The words of Ruby Walsh were ringing in my ears as I watched Cork’s Grade Two Hilly Way Chase develop into a procession. To paraphrase: in testing ground, Un De Sceaux just keeps going at a sustained pace other horses can only manage on better ground.

To put last Sunday’s going into some context, the last two races on the card were abandoned. Yet if anything, the Ryanair titleholder wanted to go faster. Even at the pace jockey David Mullins permitted, though, he forced his rivals into various errors.

The headlong Alisier D’Irlande couldn’t get to the front and soon dropped away, his jumping unraveling. Ballyoisin – deemed by the market to be the winner’s main rival after his Down Royal second to Disko last month – made a relatively early mistake and then lost touch; having barely clambered through the third last, it was surprising to see Barry Geraghty ask him to complete. They took an exhausted fall at the next fence. Clarcam jumped slowly at the fourth and was soon allowed to pootle round at a distance.

Only Top Gamble was able to attempt keeping the winner honest but he was being urged along after jumping left fully four fences from home. He could never land anything resembling a blow on the winner.

It will be interesting to see whether Mullins fancies taking on Politologue over 2m1f in Ascot’s Clarence House Chase in January – the race he won last year with Un De Sceaux prior to stepping that horse up in trip for the Ryanair, for the first time beyond 2m2f over fences and outside of France where races tend to develop differently.

That decision will probably hinge on the state of Ascot’s ground at the time, Un De Sceaux these days being widely acknowledged as needing a test at around two miles. Were it to happen, that would be some clash because the young improver Politilogue is fully functional both in heavy ground and at that track.

You can now back Fox Norton for the Ryanair at the longest price he’s been since the start of the season – 6/1 with Betfair Sportsbook – which is odd, given he’s surely now more likely than before to be targeted at this race.

Colin Tizzard interpreted the Tingle Creek as a definitive sign that Fox Norton should be going up in trip. “As Robbie [Power, his jockey] said, he missed the first a bit and was always chasing after that. He never got there,” Tizzard said.

“He got a bit close to the last and Paul’s horse [the Nicholls-trained Politologue] was away. He was beaten by a better horse on the day. I’d say we’ll step up in trip now.”

Tizzard has frequently mentioned the King George as a potential option and were Sizing John not to show his face at Kempton (more of which in the next section), then Fox Norton could easily become the late Potts’ representative at Kempton this Boxing Day.

He’d need to win that well to be considered a Gold Cup candidate when his late owners’ family already have the reigning champion – and this year’s King George is shaping up to be a strong edition.

If he does run in the Ryanair, I can’t see three horses being good enough to beat him: he handles Cheltenham, Festival ground, stays 2m4f well and is a proven top 160s horse. 6/1 each-way is very fair.

Beyond these races, there was less impact on the Ryanair over the past seven days than scheduled due to the abandonment of Huntingdon – meaning the Peterborough Chase will be staged at Taunton this week (well done for keeping it on a right-handed track) – and the apparently unexplained non-appearance of the aforementioned Disko in the John Durkan.

There have and will be calls for Djakadam to drop to 2m5f for the Ryanair. As before, this argument requires you to have closed your eyes as Sizing John carelessly outpaced him on landing three out at Punchestown last Sunday (even if the runner-up was said to be less fit than usual).

Last term’s Ryanair second Sub Lieutenant was part of the race proper for the John Durkan, with Sizing John and Djakadam, and performed creditably but without ever looking threatening. He’s probably better on a sounder surface, mind. Back in fourth, A Toi Phil had been settled further off the pace but on paper ran as well as could be expected.

Sticking to the Gigginstown theme, Alpha Des Obeaux was well beaten at Aintree last Saturday albeit on the heavy ground he has never liked in the past. His lingering health problems suggest we may have witnessed his peak some time past – over hurdles and behind Thistlecrack.

Cloudy Dream finished runner-up in that Grade Two named in honour of his owner Trevor Hemmings’ magnificent 2015 Grand National hero, the late Many Clouds – outstayed and, in the circumstances, out-jumped by an attacking Definitly Red. Heavy ground – which he doesn’t like – was probably not the best circumstance in which to try three miles for the first time but it’s understandable that Hemmings was keen to be represented in the race.

Perhaps counter-intuitively, I’d like to see positive tactics on Cloudy Dream on good spring ground in something like… the Ryanair. He’s a good jumper who seems to get out-sped late – another man’s weak finisher – so I’d like to see a tactical rethink over shy of three miles. That way, he may yet develop into more than a fringe player.

Flying Angel will have to prove that most nebulous of entities, “a spring horse”, if he’s going to make an impact in this division. Although his last two starts read respectably on paper, in actuality he’s scarcely getting involved in his races so far this term.

Timico Gold Cup

While winning the John Durkan by an unextended seven lengths, Sizing John had time for a quiet chortle at the theory that he’d done too much too quickly, culminating in the ever-arduous Gold Cup, to be considered a comparable force this season.

That’s not to say it was a worry-free outing: he made a sizeable blunder (pun intended) at the second fence yet not only proved untroubled by it but often impressive at his fences in the latter stages – in particular when taking a narrow lead on landing at the third last.

Trainer Jessica Harrington’s decision to dodge a heavy-ground three-mile event in the Betfair Chase in favour of this target looks well judged. It appears this may be a tactic she repeats because she would not confirm that we would see this horse running again over Christmas in either the King George or What-Was-The-Lexus. Only the Gold Cup is on her mind.

Djakadam must be regretting how angry Douvan’s disappearing pink-and-green silks must have made Sizing John because he’s now being forced repeatedly to play the earnest bridesmaid’s role in the same Ricci silks whenever they meet.

The dual Gold Cup runner-up gave the current titleholder a fright at Punchestown in April – the tail end of a fabulously tough campaign for the winner – but was well held at Cheltenham in March and frankly humiliated here, albeit he stuck to his task well.

I’m far from sure the King George will prove his bag – even if I don’t doubt he’ll strip much fitter for it, sharp right-handed tracks aren’t his optimum – and I can’t help but feel his moment has passed. I’m sorry, Djakadam, it’s not me; it’s you. Let’s be mature about this and walk away with some good memories.

Carlingford Lough’s largely irrelevant performance back in fifth spoke of a Grand National target. Notably, Shaneshill was reported to have been coughing after pulling up in this race, having soon become well detached fro the rest of the field.

Two other potential Gold Cup outsiders were in the winning enclosure at Aintree last Saturday: Blaklion, well-backed to win the Becher Chase over the National fences at 7/4, and Definitly Red, foot-perfect to make all over the Mildmay Course under a well-judged Danny Cook ride.Betfair Chase hero

However, the Grand National will surely be Plan A for both. Blaklion was an excellent fourth on his first attempt at the Aintree marathon last season. Definitly Red was taken out of the race when hampered at Becher’s Brook first time around, presumably causing the saddle to slip. He was pulled up two fences later.

Both successes also gilded the lily of subsequent processional Bristol De Mai, who beat Blaklion by half a length in receipt of 6lbs, and Definitly Red by 23 lengths further.

In other news, Harrington has reported that Our Duke’s back operation has been successful and he is due to start cantering soon, with the Irish Gold Cup in February being his immediate target.

Meanwhile, Acapella Bourgeois was beaten in a handicap at odds-on from a mark of 149, making this likely to be the last update on that Mullins recruit.

Finally, there must be a chance that Disko could develop – or, with no say in the matter, be developed – into the primary Gold Cup candidate for the Gigginstown Stud.

Unusually for the operation that brought you Don Cossack, Don Poli, Road To Riches and Empire Of Dirt in recent years, their big-race representative is not at this stage obvious. Road To Respect, second behind Outlander in Down Royal’s Champion Chase on seasonal debut, and Valseur Lido, sidelined since last December, are other candidates.

Unibet Champion Hurdle

At Sandown last Saturday, chase switcher A Hare Breadth delivered his best performance yet over hurdles in beating Caid Du Lin by half a length from a mark of 139. Healthily for the sport of horseracing, reportedly we won’t be seeing the winner again until the Festival’s County Hurdle. What a waste.

Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle

Nothing doing in this division but Saturday week’s Grade One Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot is sizing up to be a cracker.

OLBG Mares’ Hurdle

There are signs that last season’s third Limini is in the land of the living, with an entry in the three-mile Leopardstown Grade One over Christmas. However, stable companion Vroum Vroum Mag, last term’s runner-up, was withdrawn from her intended November comeback due to lameness and is yet to be rescheduled.

Titleholder Apple’s Jade, seemingly an improved model already this season, could also have the Leopardstown race on her itinerary but she’s also entered over two miles at the same fixture as well as in the Long Walk.

Novice chasers

Much as I am a fan of the horse, it was surprising to witness Sceau Royal running away with the Grade One Henry VIII Novices’ Chase to the extent that jockey Daryl Jacob could take a pull after the Pond Fence and still win by 11 lengths.

Given his relatively minimalist frame – he was dwarfed by Brain Power when they engaged battle in the straight – I hadn’t been convinced chasing would suit but there were shades of fellow economy-sized recruit Top Notch (also in the ownership of Simon Munir and Isaac Souede) in the accuracy of his jumping at Sandown.

Trainer Alan King afterwards admitted that he feared Sceau Royal was 10lbs off what might be required to win this Sandown event but instead he was comfortably the best in a faster time (albeit that is not uncommon) than the Tingle Creek over the same course and distance.

The margin of his victory might have been exaggerated via being ideally positioned to watch on as Brain Power was perhaps induced to do a tad too much in seeing off various challengers, however he still needed the natural cruising speed to be able to achieve this.

As a hurdler, Sceau Royal impressed with his slickness over those smaller obstacles and the economy of his jumping over fences was also notable.

You can feasibly argue he hasn’t built on early-season form for the last two terms – particularly as a juvenile, when he might have had the excuse of his yard being under the weather in the spring. In the Champion Hurdle in March, however, he was exposed as merely a first-division player.

On that day, Petit Mouchoir – currently sidelined but scheduled to return in the Irish Arkle in February, according to trainer Henry De Bromhead – and Footpad – in the same ownership as Sceau Royal – were both comfortably his superior. Both have already taken well to fences.

Anthony Bromley, racing manager to Munir and Souede, has pointed out that it’s perfectly possible both Footpad and Sceau Royal could run against each other in the Arkle – after all they have run in the same Festival race for the past two seasons.

However, there were less alluring alternatives in those years and it could well be, when it comes down to it, that having a viable contender in both the Arkle and JLT will hold plenty of appeal. Of the two, I suspect Footpad is the better equipped for stepping up in trip.

Brain Power would have been a decisive second had he not hit the last, stumbled and unseated David Mullins. I take a positive view of that performance and believe some bookmaker reaction, pushing him out to 14/1 for the Arkle, was overly negative.

The question of his suitability for Grade One left-handed targets remains but he’s surely well capable of winning chases at the top level. But both North Hill Harvey and Capitaine had their chance.

The former pressed Brain Power in the back straight and even headed him on landing after the first of the Railway Fences but was already in trouble approaching the Pond. This was rather tame compared to his previous Cheltenham success. It might be worth noting that this was only his second career start racing right-handed.

Capitaine was typically keen and hung on in there until the second last where, under pressure to stay in touch, he didn’t quite get high enough and crumpled on landing.

Finian’s Oscar had won a far from an error-free affair at Cheltenham last time – a performance that suggested a drop down to two miles would be unlikely to suit. So it proved. However, he was never really travelling from the moment he was ridden into the first fence and dove at it. His jumping was also not up to scratch

Over in Ireland, Avenir D’Une Vie won a Punchestown beginners’ chase pretty much unchallenged and could face Footpad at Leopardstown over Christmas. He’d previously been clear when falling in the race won by Bon Papa last month.

Runner-up here was Saturnas, making his chase debut after disappointing at Punchestown Grade One novices’ hurdle when last seen in February. More patiently ridden than the winner, he needed a really good jump at the second last to get involved and instead lunged at it. He stuck on likeably, however, and may do better upped in trip.

At Navan last Saturday, Tombstone got the better of Jett in an edition of the Grade Three Klairon Davis Novice Chase primarily notable for the total number of mistakes made by the four-strong field.

It was hard to credit Invitation Only having fallen on his chase debut behind Monalee at Punchestown last month, so well did he jump when winning a beginners’ chase over 2m4f on the same card. He made all to win but was strongly challenged by Any Second Now – a six-length second to Monalee that previous day – from a long way out until approaching the last in what struck as a strong contest. A step up to three miles is on the winner’s agenda.

Back in third, Moulin A Vent also took a good step forward on his debut over the larger obstacles.

Other performances to note from the past week include Albert Bartlett fifth Ami Desbois maintaining his unbeaten record over fences in a match at Wetherby and Barney Dwan stepping up on his debut to win by a wide margin at Market Rasen.

I also omitted to mention last week a performance that I suspect some have under-rated: the Plumpton success of Optimus Prime. He jumped well and looked smart, so don’t underestimate this Dan Skelton-trained chaser when he next appears.

Novice hurdlers

I doubt there will be three horses better than On The Blind Side in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, hence I’m recommending backing him each-way at 10/1. I realise this is a major affront to Next Coming Samcro’s many devotees but my concession to you is the place part of the bet. Secretly, though, I’m not scared.

Prior to Sandown, there had been a difference of opinion, Geoffrey, between trainer and jockey about what would be the ideal trip for On The Blind Side. Henderson said Ballymore; Nico de Boinville thought three miles and the Albert Bartlett. On dismounting last Friday, the latter bowed to the former’s judgment.

This horse is no potato and he demonstrated that when travelling far better than previously to win that high-level renewal of the Grade Two Ballymore Winter Novices’ Hurdle. There was no sign of his previous flat-spot habit and in the way that he surged clear, a matured athlete, there were echoes of Altior once he got motoring in his novice-hurdle season.

On The Blind Side is proven at Cheltenham and is justified a rating of 153. That’s good enough to hit the frame – at least – in most editions of the Ballymore. For good measure, here he had six previous winners toiling in his wake – despite conceding up to 5lbs all round.

The likeable runner-up Springtown Lake – blessed with the most determined of head carriages – put up a proper fight. His worth had been tested in handicaps and, having unfortunately stumbled to the ground with the race otherwise sewn up after the last on his previous start at Wincanton, he was worth every pound of his mark going into Sandown’s contest.

The disappointment of the race was much-heralded White Moon, hitherto an unbeaten novice hurdler. He was reportedly found to be stiff, with a muscular problem, some time later.

There were better tidings for Tizzard when hurdles debutant Ainchea won the opener at Sandown the following day. He beat the more experienced ex-bumper horse Whatswrongwithyou – also a Point winner – by a length.

Over in Ireland, last season’s talking bumper horse – unbeaten in two but ultimately a Cheltenham Festival absentee due to a sesamoid issue – Getabird won his hurdles bow in promising fashion, albeit he was firmly ridden out to gain an education. For what it’s worth, the yak from owner Ricci had been that sidelined Annamix was “probably the pick of our novice team”.

Stablemate Draconien, a French recruit just starting off for Mullins, took his Clonmel hurdle debut readily by 12 lengths. Rider Patrick Mullins was very complimentary afterwards,

Meanwhile, another Closutton representative Fabulous Saga paid a handsome compliment to his Gordon Elliott-trained Cork conqueror Cracking Smart when returned to that track and taking a heavy-ground Grade Three by 70 lengths in a first-time tongue-tie.

Juvenile hurdlers

The Sandown success of Sussex Ranger last Friday was easy on the eye and hard on the clock. Afterwards, trainer Gary Moore started to doubt the implications of the form, such was the readiness of his horse’s 14-length success, but a time-based breakdown of the performance suggests he should believe what he saw.

Five horses moved on when the going got tough in this Introductory Hurdle and all of them have merit for future opportunities. A stiff finish advantages the winner according to jockey Jamie Moore, so he was relatively cool on the prospect of heading to Chepstow for the Grade One Finale Hurdle over Christmas. Yet the merit of this form might persuade him otherwise.

Runner-up Quothquan – unexposed over 14f-plus on the Flat – stepped up on his debut and decent Flat recruit Night Of Glory made an encouraging start to his new discipline back in third.

Jukebox Jive was admittedly disappointing – did he dislike not being able to dominate? He was certainly out-jumped by the winner in the back straight. For a horse making his racecourse debut – and looking like it in his paddock demeanour – there was plenty to like about the tall Esprit De Somoza.

Selections

• Advised 30/11/17: Min at 8/1 Champion Chase with Paddy Power/Betfair
• Advised 06/12/17: Supasundae at 20/1 Stayers’ Hurdle with Bet365 and Paddy Power/Betfair
• Advised 06/12/17: Mengli Khan for the Supreme at 15/2 with Betfair
• On The Blind Side: back now at 10/1 each-way for the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Sky Bet have boosted this horse to 12/1 exclusively for this column, maximum stake £50, log-in and click here to place your bets)

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