Lydia Hislop: Road To Cheltenham | Part Two: Mighty Min a Champion Chase bet

Sporting Life exclusive - back Min at 9/1 for the Betway Champion Chase with Sky Bet (boosted from 6/1)

To channel Jeremy Paxman: you know the rules by now, so let’s just get on with it. And yes, I will get palpably irritated if you spend any longer conferring on the meaning of Bristol De Mai’s fabulous Betfair Chase slog and derisively snort at anyone who fancies L’Ami Serge for the Stayers’ Hurdle.

Timico Gold Cup

Bristol De Mai was relentlessly brilliant in his optimum conditions to blow away disadvantaged and/or ailing rivals by 57 lengths and more – a record distance for a Grade One event. His rhythmic jumping and unerring gallop was hypnotic. He deserves every accolade for an outstanding performance of wintery prowess.

Ceded two lengths at the start, which can pnly have helped him find his best beat from the outset, he just kept on going with no regard for the disarray his tempo was causing in behind.

His rivals simply never looked comfortable and while you can validly cite various individual reasons for that, the chief contributory factor to the manner of their defeat was the punishing pace at which the winner conducted himself.

Comparative chase sectionals on the day testify to his mastery, in particular the powerful middle section of the race that caused classy rivals to unravel a long, long way from home.

Bristol De Mai recorded his previous peak effort over the course-and-not-distance when winning the Peter Marsh by 22 lengths from a mark of 154 last January over the old three-mile layout. One of the highlights of his novice season was a Grade Two success at this same venue. That was recorded in heavy ground, as was his Finale Hurdle victory as a three-year-old on his first-ever start for Nigel Twiston-Davies.

You get the point – if ever Bristol De Mai was going to do something like this, it was going to be here. That said, he still has to turn up and deliver the goods to excess – which is what he did.

The widespread expectation is that he won’t be able to produce anything comparable in the King George and/or the Cheltenham Gold Cup. He surely won’t – this was simply too extraordinary to think otherwise. It’s conceivable that, although he appeared to breeze through the mud, a performance of this magnitude will knock the stuffing out of him for some while.

Yet he ran very well in last season’s Gold Cup – bang there until the third last and he would have been closer bar for completely stuffing up the last. He was only six at the time – is still only six – and could yet better that at Cheltenham. It’s probably overly simplistic to characterise him as a one-dimensional flat-track bully, even though such topography clearly invites a peak performance. A tendency to land steeply, unpunished, was a facet of this victory but, on reflection and having re-watched the last Gold Cup, I’m minded to conclude that it was more a function of jumping out of deep ground rather than anything of concern for undulating tracks.

One factor in this could be a tendency to land steeply and that was on display unpunished on a couple of occasions last Saturday but, on reflection and having re-watched the last Gold Cup, I’m minded to conclude that it was more a function of jumping out of deep ground rather than anything else.

Kempton is invitingly flat but even in deep midwinter won’t be as testing as Haydock was – one of many fundamental reasons why it would be an irresponsible abdication of responsibility to British jump racing were Jockey Club Racecourses to sell that venue. It’s a place where a greater number of top-class horses can operate to their full athleticism outside the spring events.

Cheltenham will be neither flat nor heavy and, even though Bristol De Mai could improve his record there, that still leaves him with up to 20 lengths to find on those who preceded him home last March.

So 13/2 and 12/1 respectively for the two remaining target in the £1million bonus odyssey do not appeal, all things considered.

Finishing 57 lengths adrift in second, this was the worst completion of Cue Card’s career over obstacles. Ridden by Harry Cobden for the first time, he was soon not travelling with his usual conspicuous fluency and, like the rest of the winner’s backwash, was beaten by the back straight second time around.

There continue to be calls for his retirement. Even though I do not expect this horse to be a factor in this season’s banner races, these are both premature and potentially misguided, in my opinion.

Premature because Cue Card hates deep ground and this was probably the most extreme he has ever encountered. Now clearly, in the past he has run a race to some degree in very soft conditions and here he did not. That’s mostly due to the winner’s tempo and partly because Cue Card is past his peak.

Yet that peak requires some contextualising. His 2015/16 achievements place him equal 22nd in Timeform’s all-time great list of chasers and hurdlers. This is a rare horse indeed.

He wasn’t as good as that last term. Although he’d fallen on two of his previous three starts when lining up last Saturday, he was still operating at a level good enough to be beaten only a neck in a Grade One chase seven months ago. That’s mighty quick to be giving up on a horse.

It’s also potentially misguided because these thoroughbreds are athletes, accustomed to the frenetic routine of a racehorse stable with its lots and its schooling, its various comings and goings, and to the event of taking part in a race, with its travelling, pre-race routines, crowds and competition. Not all such horses are suited to retirement – albeit modern retraining options mean that can be a highly active one.

As race fans, we place a degree of trust in those closest to every horse to do their best for them every day. While by no means should this stifle debate, a factor that should be weighed a little more heavily than is frequently the case is the intimacy between trainer and horse – particularly one that has been kicking around the Tizzards’ yard winning top-flight races for almost 10 years.

As race fans, we almost seek to protect the honour of top-class horses when we perceive them to be on the wane but that’s a human vanity if it’s not the best thing for the horse’s quality of life. And yes, there are risks with continuing but there are risks every day and at any age. Colin Tizzard is – stand by your beds for a massive understatement – a sensible and thoughtful man. I’m perfectly happy to rely on his judgment here.

Outlander – who won last term’s Lexus and this season’s Champion Chase at Down Royal in first-time cheekpieces but was out of his depth in the Gold Cup in March – was beaten around the same time as Cue Card. Trainer Gordon Elliott reported that rider Jack Kennedy said “he struggled the whole way around in the ground”. They plan to return to the Lexus in which he should again be a player but beatable.

Tea For Two also ran the worst race of his jumping career, albeit Outlander mugged him for third when that horse was marginally less delirious at the finish. He blundered and unseated Lizzie Kelly at the second in the Gold Cup but they went on to claim the Betway Bowl at Aintree, narrowly from Cue Card, the following month. The balance of his form usually isn’t quite good enough for this level, even in more suitable conditions.

From her vantage point in Ireland, Jessica Harrington must be well satisfied with her decision not to ship Gold Cup titleholder Sizing John over to Haydock for a muddy slog. After a tough timetable last term, you can see why she concluded it was not an ideal start. Instead, the John Durkan must appeal as a more governable debut albeit it’s likely to be a lively edition.

In terms of Irish action in this division, Acapella Bourgeois has been mentioned as a lively outsider for the Gold Cup and was well backed to win the Troytown. Racing characteristically freely, he blundered at the fifth prior to falling two fences later. Might Bite also annihilated him in the 2017 RSA and it’s hard to make a case for turning round a 61-length disparity.

SKY BET ODDS: Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup

Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase

Off games with “niggly issues” since winning the Grade One Racing Post Chase at Leopardstown last Christmas, Min came roaring back at Gowran last Saturday.

He had two vastly inferior rivals to beat but he largely jumped with measured efficiency – bar for landing steeply from a big leap at the first and adjusting with an educated guess when meeting a later fence wrong. This in recording a 36-length success without coming remotely off the bridle.

There is little significance to him starting off over 2m4f this term because trainer Willie Mullins has repeatedly explained that Ireland’s trim jumping pattern means you have to take your opportunities whenever the timing is right for your horse, even if the particular conditions aren’t always ideal.

As it happens, Min looked at home over 2m4f. But then he looked the same over the minimum trip last season and the Leopardstown race he won so convincingly turned out to be highly robust, with runner-up Ordinary World going on to finish third in the Arkle and both third-placed Road To Respect and sixth Tully East winning Cheltenham Festival handicaps.

Regarding targets this term, the ball is now firmly in Douvan’s court because you’d expect Rich Ricci (and Ruby Walsh, provided all three participants make it there) to want to be represented with a strong chance in both the Champion and Ryanair Chases. The caveat is that this owner most values a definite Festival win, meaning he is no longer averse to a pincer movement of two of his horses in the same race rather than splitting them up for a punt at another.

So with Great Field sidelined and Un De Sceaux surely a chaser of two-miles past (bar in the mud), it’s only Douvan who stands between Min and definite participation in the Champion Chase.

Two points of differential with Min: it’s Douvan for whom the words “Gold Cup” have been mentioned and alone who’s been actually entered in the King George. Yet Min is three points longer in this ante-post market and, unlike the first and second favourite, he has already returned to the track with a convincing display following a setback.

Now, Douvan is clearly expected to return from his pelvic stress fracture, almost certainly in the Tingle Creek, with his ability unimpaired – Mullins having described the injury as “a relatively minor setback in the greater scheme of things”. That ability is large, as we all know, but Walsh did have to pull him off the pitch before the biggest question of his career to date could be fully posed last March.

In favourite Altior’s case, the plan is to accommodate a prep run prior to the Festival but the spectre of him making his return in the Champion Chase has also been raised and, with that, the sensible ante-post punter must consider whether the Festival could even be in doubt. It’s ‘only’ a breathing operation, granted, and horses probably have these mid-season all the time (as we’ll soon get to know for a fact) but it tempers alacrity in getting behind a 7/4 shot three-and-a-half months ahead of the action.

We already know that third favourite Fox Norton is brimming with current ability, having impressed in winning the Shloer earlier this month. Yet his narrow defeat by Special Tiara in last term’s Champion Chase – even if he gave the winner too much rope – suggests he must raise his game at this trip if any one of Altior, Douvan or Min pitch up.

On the likely March ground, I suspect he’ll be checking in for the Ryanair – particularly given Sizing John’s absence from the Betfair Chase, thereby eschewing any chance of the £1m bonus, opens the door to Fox Norton being the King George representative for the late Alan and Ann Potts.

All of which leads me to conclude – you see where this is going – that Min is worth a bet at 8/1 with Paddy Power/Betfair. There was a significant moment last season, after his Christmas success, when Walsh had shed his concerns about an Altior re-match in the Arkle and was instead comparing Min with Kauto Star.

Now I don’t tend to set much store in yak, but I do notice when human beings say something out of character. In my experience, Walsh doesn’t throw out compliments of that size freely. It made me think then that Min held some substance and I haven’t forgotten it.

So let’s play, even though there’s a risk that Douvan could run in the Champion Chase instead. Yes, there’s also a risk that if Douvan wins on Saturday week he’ll be shortened and Min will be the prime candidate to be lengthened. But the latter doesn’t tend to happen these days, unless (but not usually) defeat is abject so I’m prepared to take 8/1. The flip-side is a race-fit and suitably grounded Fox Norton taking a notable scalp…

On Racing UK last Saturday, pundit David Cleary described Ascot’s 2m1f handicap chase, won by last year’s Champion Chase third Sir Valentino, as “a race full of badly handicapped horses”. It’s hard to disagree with him, now as then.

That said, it was great to see Tom George’s charge, ridden for the first time by Jonathan Burke, gain his first success since the 2016 Haldon Gold Cup. Sir Valentino improved plenty last season and acquitted himself with credit in lofty company. His connections deserved tangible reward.

Saturday week’s Tingle Creek would appear a quick turnaround for this horse, so connections might wait for the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton over Christmas – a race in which he just failed by just half a length to concede 6lbs to subsequent Champion Chase winner Special Tiara last year. Had he not made a mistake at the second last, he might even have won.

The hugely popular Sire De Grugy is a five-times Grade One winner, including the 2014 Champion Chase, but trailed in last under top-weight behind Sir Valentino at Ascot. Trainer Gary Moore nonetheless mentioned the Desert Orchid but is also considering retirement for the 11-year-old.

“We will take a bit of time and think about it,” he said. “We’ve had seven runners in the last two weeks and they’ve not run well. Whether there is something lurking in the yard, I don’t know, but we are not writing him off yet. …[But] if he did get beat [in the Desert Orchid], we will speak to the owners after that… [Retirement] has got to be in the back of the mind.”

SKY BET ODDS: Queen Mother Champion Chase

Ryanair Chase

Last week I wrote of Top Notch: “I adore this bonny little horse but worry he may struggle at the highest grade out of novice company this term.” At Ascot last Saturday, he took his first surefooted steps towards proving my fears misplaced but I’m not going to surrender my original train of thought just yet.

As trainer Nicky Henderson observed afterwards, it just gets tougher from here. That said Top Notch won the Grade Two Christy 1965 Chase in the manner of a horse meriting a crack at the big time over fences. He jumped accurately, ridden for the first time by Nico de Boinville, and particularly so at the last, from which he sauntered eight lengths clear of his nearest pursuer.

The plan was clearly – subsequently confirmed by his trainer – to attain a prominent position towards the outside early, to afford this second-season chaser full sight of his obstacles. They won’t be able to pick and choose in such a way at the highest grade – that’s one of its many tests.

Henderson didn’t utterly dismiss the King George as a potential target, albeit he does have that raced earmarked for Might Bite and owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede now have the bonus-seeking Bristol De Mai rolling in that direction, too. Less specifically, Henderson is inclined to try three miles with Top Notch at some point this season.

In the meantime, Huntingdon’s Grade Two Peterborough Chase appeals as an obvious next target – even if prior to last weekend, that was the putative ambition of last year’s winner, Josses Hill.

Yet even if that horse – the first to struggle at Ascot – lacked fitness when jumping scruffily on his seasonal debut behind Top Notch here, the winner has surely assumed primary consideration at that yard for such races now – albeit the 6lb penalty for this success might be a particular deterrent for a smaller-scale horse. In the medium term, a return to Berkshire for the Grade One Ascot Chase would make obvious appeal.

The patiently ridden Double Shuffle ran well in second without remotely threatening the winner and was getting back on track after two abortive declarations. He’s entered in the King George and, more realistically, booked for a potential return to the National fences in the Becher on Saturday week.

Flying Angel ran creditably on paper, building on his first start of the season, but was never truly able to get involved. Frodon was the second to struggle but rallied strongly to take third. It might be that three miles is within his capabilities this term and he’d be interesting at that trip back in a handicap. Back in fifth, Smad Place took a big step backwards from the hurrah of his Old Roan success on seasonal debut.

Top Gamble was another under pressure from some way out, to which his response was to jump left and so he was pulled up. He usually needs his first outing but has otherwise tended to run very consistently of late, such as his fourth in last season’s Champion Chase. The Ryanair looks a more suitable target this term, albeit it nonetheless still appears just out of his reach.

Up at Haydock, Clan Des Obeaux comfortably accounted for a decent field of graduation chasers. He makes heavy ground look less sapping than most horses (betting without Bristol De Mai) and jumped well out of it, albeit he again showed his frequent tendency to adjust right.

More patient tactics also appeared to suit well. However, I doubt whether the pace of a Ryanair on a sound surface and at a track like Cheltenham will enable him to perform at his best.

He accounted for the reliable Vintage Clouds, whose stamina kicked in at a track that suits, the novice Born Survivor and Cyrius Darius. The last-named shaped better than more than 32 lengths adrift would suggest, having travelled too enthusiastically in the conditions and for whom a four-out blunder knocked him cold.

At Thurles last Thursday, Bachasson delivered his best performance yet over fences via a sauntering 24-length defeat of (an admittedly below form) Val De Ferbet in a four-runner Listed affair. It should be noted that Apache Stronghold undermined his part in the race with a series of blunders, markedly so at the eighth, but the winner was in a different league on this occasion.

That was only Bachasson’s fourth start over fences and he’s starting to deliver on the promise he’d shown over hurdles as a novice. However, he doesn’t appear to be that scopey of frame and he, too, could be up against it in the highest grade. His owners already have Un De Sceaux in this division.

SKY BET ODDS: Ryanair Chase

Sunbets Stayers’ Hurdle

That whimper you heard at around 14:25 last Saturday was the sound of Defi Du Seuil losing his unbeaten tag in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot. Sent off the 10/11 favourite, he never even threatened to get involved – as jockey Barry Geraghty acknowledged afterwards when dismissing a lack of stamina as the primary reason for his defeat in this Grade Two 2m3.5f event.

The seven-time hurdle winner, including three Grade Ones that encompassed both the Triumph and Aintree’s 4-y-o Anniversary Hurdle, had never jumped right-handed in public before and that came to be an issue from the sixth (if not the fifth) obstacle with him adjusting markedly left.

However, he had also smashed down the third when perhaps distracted by ultimate winner Lil Rockerfeller putting in a short one ahead of him. He then jumped big when asked at the fourth and his confidence may have been affected in some way by this earlier incident.

From after the sixth, Geraghty kept him wide – perhaps because his mount’s jumping was taking him there or because the ground was less poached – but was soon moving his hands to signal all was not well. All this time, on L’Ami Serge, de Boinville had his sights trained on the favourite and shadowed him wherever he went.

This proved unfortunate, because the winner was a few lengths further ahead, keeping tabs on race-controlling front-runner Wakea. By the time de Boinville realised Defi Du Seuil was not his primary danger, it was too late. He managed to convince L’Ami Serge to make up half of the deficit but Lil Rockerfeller maintained that reduced advantage from the last to the line. It might have been that the winner would have won anyway, mind.

As stated last week, there was absolutely no fluke about Lil Rockerfeller’s second in last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle – if anything, you might mark him up for helping to force the pace and doing by far the best of those employed that way. The 25/1 available then is now 16/1 best; even that remains reasonable.

L’Ami Serge went some way towards mending his faint-hearted reputation last summer with a stylish success at Sandown augmented by his French Champion Hurdle triumph over an extended 3m1f.

As other horses have repeatedly proved in the past, winning over that trip in France is no guarantee of the stamina you need to win over three miles in Grade One company at the Cheltenham Festival. You need a horse that can cope with the screw being turned from a long way out.

L’Ami Serge was returning from a break at Ascot so may well come on for the run and he’s certainly unexposed at longer trips even if he has not yet won as many races as his talent should have earned.

Up at Haydock, Sam Spinner took a huge leap forwards on stepping up to 2m7f for the first time and conducted his success at a relentless gallop from the front. A 16lb rise is lumpy but justified and he may not have finished improving yet. Outside consideration for this division would then start to be valid.

Congratulations to the Haydock stewards for acting to curb use of the whip on a horse that was “clearly winning” when fining Joe Colliver, the successful jockey, the costly sum of £1,050. It’s this sort of whip misuse – along with out of contention and when a horse’s chance has clearly gone – that needs addressing with as much alacrity as counting strokes.

Meanwhile, back in eighth, last term’s Sefton victor The World’s End shaped encouragingly on his first start of the new term with one of the larger weights to carry in the field and on ground probably far softer than he prefers.

SKY BET ODDS: Stayers' Hurdle

Stan James Champion Hurdle

Saturday was not only the first time Defi Du Seuil had raced right-handed but also that he had faced any horses other than his peers. His performance was underwhelming to say the least.

Immediately afterwards, trainer Philip Hobbs admitted that, while he would expect the horse to come on for the run, he could not blame fitness for the manner of collapse. Nothing further has since come to light.

The following day, Hobbs reported: “He’s perfectly all right. It was obviously very disappointing and nothing’s come to light afterwards… I couldn’t have been happier with him at home. I don’t have any race in mind at this stage as we’ll just have to see how he is and go from there.”

As a result, Defi Du Seuil has more than doubled in price to 20/1 with some firms for this Cheltenham Festival target. The presence of titleholder Buveur D’Air in this division, also owned by JP McManus, had already advised a note of caution but you couldn’t have the Stayers’ Hurdle on your mind either after last Saturday’s showing.

Buveur D’Air returns in this Saturday’s Unibet Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle, with the deletion of Haydock’s annual The New One benefit from the race programme last Saturday surely being good news for this Grade One event.

Fingers crossed that Gordon Elliott ships over OLBG Mares’ Hurdle winner Apple’s Jade, given she was unlucky not to catch Irving in this race last year after being hampered at the third last.

She boasts race-fitness over Buveur D’Air and, bearing in mind Henderson reiterated last Saturday that his string have been tending to need their first start, this could be well be the best time for that mare to encounter him.

Finally, it emerged last week that Moon Racer – pitched into the Champion Hurdle as a novice last season – is unlikely to return to action until the new year due to suffering a bout of colic during the summer.

“After the trauma of that, we’ve got to be careful with him so he’s now just starting to come back into training,” revealed part-owner Bryan Drew in an interview on At The Races last week. “All being well, we’ll put some entries in for him at some point in the new year. I would imagine we’d play to his strengths and stay hurdling.”

SKY BET ODDS: Champion Hurdle

OLBG Mares’ Hurdle

La Bague Au Roi improved for a step up in trip when winning Kempton’s Listed prize over an extended three miles on Monday but it remains unclear whether she will stick to hurdling this season or switch to fences.

She’s now won two hurdle races this term at this level and trainer Warren Greatrex is clearly tempted to stick rather than twist, given the mares’ programme is so much improved and despite the fact she has the frame for chasing.

She was allowed to dictate for the final circuit at Kempton but wandered before and after the penultimate flight, allowing the higher rated Jer’s Girl (in receipt of 4lbs to boot) to head her briefly after the last. But she battled back and has now won six of her eight hurdles starts.

The 2m4f of the OBLG Mares’ Hurdle would certainly suit La Bague Au Roi better than the 2m1f of the Dawn Run, in which she was seventh last season.

In the case of Jer’s Girl, the step up in trip seemed more of a cry for help than the obvious next step – albeit she acquitted herself perfectly well and seemed to stay, within the confines of a steadily run race. She was sometimes hesitant or scruffy at her obstacles and does not appear to be improving.

SKY BET ODDS: OLBG Mares' Hurdle

Novice chasers

Brain Power made a highly encouraging start to his chasing career at Kempton earlier this week, albeit none of his three rivals got involved at any stage – bar for a brief attempt to press him for the lead at the first by the outclassed Mariah’s Legend.

He jumped largely well, getting in close a few times but also letting fly at least once, and never saw another rival from the second fence. It was the ideal schooling session.

“He’s grown up and we let him bowl along today,” said Henderson, in an informative interview – not that jockey David Mullins would have had much choice but to lead.

“He will have learned a lot today. The Arkle is the ultimate objective and we’ll more than likely go the Altior route. We’ve got some others but they’d have to be good to go with him. He was a genuine Champion Hurdle horse but David said fences are the making of him.”

Brain Power did indeed grow into a realistic contender for the two-mile hurdling crown last season on the basis of a dominant success in an Ascot handicap off a mark of 149. However, after racing keenly, he was ultimately beaten 30 lengths by stablemate Buveur D’Air.

As discussed here prior to last season’s Festival, his best performances have all been on right-handed tracks so although his fifth in the Grade One Punchestown Champion Hurdle also marks him out as one of the better chasing recruits this season, his aptitude for the Arkle remains in question.

If chasing proves to be more his game, as David Mullins contends, then this concern may yet be overstated. If you try hard enough, there are reasons, either of magnitude or timing, for his three below-par left-handed runs over obstacles to date.

2015 Swinton Hurdle winner War Sound was Brain Power’s closest pursuer at Kempton, a mere 28 lengths behind, but he almost fell at the third. Winter Escape, whose jumping was superior until he went out to his left at the third last when his rider had long given up, instantly caught the eye for a Festival handicap. He managed to finish fifth in the 2017 County on his first start for four months and only his fifth overall.

There are a handful of other obvious potential Arkle (with the inevitable JLT caveat) horses to mention at this stage are. Footpad, who’s hit the frame in both the Champion Hurdle and Triumph in previous seasons, is the current favourite after straightforwardly accounting for Brelade on chase debut at Navan earlier this month.

Part-owner Munir had the temerity to identify the Arkle as Footpad’s primary target, via the 2m1f Grade One at Leopardstown over Christmas – a useful pointer, given the horse tried three miles over hurdles in April and Mullins had instead mentioned the 2m4f Drinmore for this “very natural jumper”.

It will be entertaining to see whether Munir and Souede will be tamed by the Mullins obfuscation machine this season. Willie, I hate to break it to you but Simon is on Twitter and he says things on there openly. In plain sight. It’s frankly terrifying.

Petit Mouchoir finished one place ahead of Footpad when third in the Champion Hurdle and he also beat Brelade, by seven lengths, on his chase debut last month at Punchestown. He also made all and jumped well but since encountered what was said to be a minor setback and missed his next proposed engagement.

In Britain, North Hill Harvey has impressed – particularly so at Cheltenham last time when accounting for River Wylde, who would have been unsuited by testing ground, and Ozzie The Oscar, an inferior horse over hurdles who put up more of a fight and lost second as a result.

Afterwards it emerged that he’d given the Skeltons a fright when schooling in preparation for that target but on the racecourse he was thoroughly professional – a trait the team around him have come to recognise.

Although stable companion Born Survivor ran creditably enough against more experienced chasers in sapping conditions when a tired third in Haydock’s intermediate chase last Saturday, trainer Dan Skelton might now not be able to resist Sandown’s Henry VIII Novices’ Chase for North Hill Harvey on Saturday week.

We’ll certainly be seeing this horse more often than last season when Skelton laid him out for the County after winning the Greatwood last term and now considers that a “big mistake” because the horse thrives on activity.

At the same November meeting at Cheltenham, Finian’s Oscar did well to reel in Movewiththetimes after last term’s Betfair Hurdle runner-up headed him after the penultimate flight. The winner was also conceding 8lbs and there was that intangible element of class as he rallied to victory.

Movewiththetimes would have made it an even harder task had he not rather over-jumped the last. None of the three completers in that race – in which good-framed Coo Star Sivola was a decent third – jumped cleanly, so there is room for improvement all round but the race had the feel of a quality contest. It was a shame that William Henry’s tack failed, caused by him jumping badly right – or else inspiring him to do that.

Tizzard – who’s on a vocal (and entirely correct) mission to dispel the pigeon-holing of horses – immediately raised the unwelcome spectre of Festival brinkmanship when throwing the Arkle into the mix for Finian’s Oscar in his post-race interviews.

“We don’t have to decide until two days before and if the ground was on the fast side, the two-and-a-half-mile race would be more likely but we will learn more as the season goes on,” he said.

The Paul Nicholls-trained Dolos deserves a mention, for he impressed on chase debut at Ascot even if Sternrubin, his chief competitor that day, does not at this stage look a natural over the larger obstacles.

Sceau Royal has taken to the larger obstacles well, despite not being the largest of frame, and has found only North Hill Harvey too good in three starts – and he was attempting to concede 5lbs to him.

Al Boum Photo’s defeat of Tycoon Prince at Navan was a decent performance in testing ground but the chaos caused by the loose horse at the second leads me to treat the form with some wariness at this stage.

Yanworth’s defeat of Sternrubin last month is looking less compelling since the winner crumpled on landing for no good reason next time and the runner-up underwhelmed at Ascot but it’s early days. We’ll learn more when he takes on the likes of dual chase winner Modus and Neptune victor Willoughby Court at Newbury this week.

Other potential stayers worth mentioning are Black Corton – who forced his way into RSA Chase consideration after taking a bold step outside of summer-jumping territory with Bryony Frost on board – and Monalee – who ran a huge race against the more patiently ridden Penhill when second in last season’s Albert Bartlett and made a convincing chase debut at Punchestown earlier this month.

Death Duty flopped in the Potato Race but always shaped as though chasing would be more his bag. He’s won both starts to date and trainer Elliott has conceded that he might have been wrong in deeming him to have needed three miles last season.

Stablemate Jury Duty looks a thorough stayer, however, and the Irish Grand National has already been cited. Other out-and-outs who've already had their first kick-arounds this term include 2016 Albert Bartlett runner-up Fagan and muddy Chepstow winner Ramses De Teillee.

Finally, please note the new British rules, designed to address ailing field sizes, that prevent increase to the rating of any horse beaten in a novice or beginners’ chase (at class 2 and below) provided that horse has raced four times or more over obstacles. Punters need to take notice of this because others clearly have.

Novice hurdlers

Samcro wins the 2018 Ballymore (formerly the Neptune) and 2019 Champion Hurdle. The end. Or you’d be forgiven for thinking it is, with this horse almost exclusively 2/1 across the board for the March novices’ event.

Obviously he was impressive when winning the Grade Three Monksfield Hurdle by 12 lengths – jumping, if anything, more slickly than on his debut and clearly a class apart from his opposition. He’d already garnered a large reputation via three unbeaten starts in bumpers and has done nothing to quell the hysteria since, which has seen him already compared with Gold Cup winner Don Cossack – as was Death Duty last year.

He’s an exciting prospect set to be sent off at prohibitive prices on every start unless or until he’s beaten. It sounds as though trainer Elliott plans to campaign him more sparingly than Death Duty was last season, given a Naas Grade One in January is pinpointed for his next start.

Stablemate Mengli Khan is a second-season hurdler, having had a couple of initial spins early in the year. Formerly a handicapper of untapped potential for Hugo Palmer, this horse has now won twice over obstacles at Navan – including a four-length defeat of Stratum in a Grade Three last time.

Cracking Smart is another Elliott inmate – like the above two, also racing under the Gigginstown banner – to note. He improved quite a bit on his hurdling debut when winning at Cork early this month, although his technique requires some fine-tuning.

Turning to a different power base, the Ricci-owned Sharjah has also already won a couple this season. I particularly liked how accurate he was over the last two hurdles when the race developed into a sprint and a third-last mistake put him on the back foot.

Two other notable Mullins-trained novices have secured victory on their debuts: Festival Bumper fourth Next Destination in testing ground over 2m3f at Naas and Carter McKay in heavy ground over 2m at Gowran. We’ll learn more when they contest less one-sided events.

For the third Irish uber-owner, McManus, Red Jack is perhaps the most interesting novice to date. Trained by Noel Meade and unbeaten in three starts, the latest a comfortable debut hurdles win at Naas, he’s promising.

Back in Britain, On The Blind Side is unbeaten in two starts over hurdles and again got outpaced before pulling away when winning a Grade Two at Cheltenham last time. He shaped as though the Albert Bartlett would be the best target – and Henderson even mentioned it as such.

It looked like a decent race – runner-up Momella is steadily improving and third-placed Poetic Rhythm, attempting to concede 5lbs and more all round, again indicated that a step up in trip is required.

The low sun caused Cheltenham’s other Grade Two novices’ hurdle to descend into farce, with only five of the eight obstacles jumped. In the circumstances, Slate House did well to win after racing so keenly and rider Cobden was keen to impress that the Tizzards have a very exciting prospect on their hands.

This was a good-looking field. Both Summerville Boy and Better Getalong, in second and third respectively, shaped with promise. Uttoxeter winner Dame De Compagnie was a disappointing odds-on favourite albeit she raced on the unfavoured inside and didn’t lose as much ground as seemed likely from the home turn. The vet found no abnormalities and Henderson could provide no explanation. I suspect she’s a deal better than that.

Tizzard also has the exciting White Moon, who has impressed in victory both at Wincanton and Exeter. Henderson also has Claimantakinforgan, third in the Festival Bumper in March and already a no-sweat winner over hurdles at Newbury.

Juvenile hurdlers

Trainer Emmanuel Clayeux released le chat from le sac prior to the British debut of Apple’s Shakira earlier this month by describing her, in a Racing UK interview moments beforehand, as being as good as her full sister, Apple’s Jade. As the original source of Defi Du Seuil, this is a man who knows nascent talent when he sees it – and makes good business from it.

Clayeux had trained this good-looking filly when she made an impressive winning debut at Vichy in May. Although he was represented by Eh Georges, a raw juvenile he deems a future chaser (and so had declined to let him go too cheaply at Cheltenham’s sale the previous night), he clearly fully expected to get well beaten. That came to pass.

Gumball, twice a winner and improving, was a credible opponent for the filly and briefly threatened. It surely didn’t help that Richard Johnson steered an inside course whereas Barry Geraghty – one of the chief original architects of the super-wide trip in bad ground on the Old Course – gave it the full trailer-park girl. There were 17 lengths between them at the line.

Geraghty, who won this race on Defi Du Seuil last year en flawless route to the Triumph, cited the filly’s inexperience as the chief point of difference with that horse – whereas Defi arrived pretty much the finished article (for a juvenile), Apple’s Shakira still has a lot to learn.

That’s an unnerving assertion for connections of her future opponents but good news for race fans, who should be getting to see a good deal of her. “She needs to learn, so we won’t be hiding her away.” Henderson stated.

She’s already best-priced 9/2 for the Triumph which, given her billing, the ability she’s already displayed and the likelihood that no other target will be entertained (all being well) is about as non-compellingly good as it gets these days.

Other juveniles to note at this early stage include Mercenaire – a wide-margin winner at Exeter last Sunday, surely Finale-bound, and hailing from the Nick Williams stable that usually boasts a classy quotient in this division – and Espoire D’Allen – winner of both of his permitted starts to date and, like Apple’s Shakira, owned by JP McManus.

Selections

Back now: Min (top price 8/1 for the Champion Chase with Paddy Power/Betfair - but exclusive 9/1 Sky Bet Price Boost for sportinglife readers)

Related horse racing links

• Today's racecards
• Today's fast results
• Today's results
• More free horse racing tips
• Goings and non-runners