Lydia Hislop: Road To Cheltenham Part Nine, including a 20/1 tip for the Gold Cup
Lydia Hislop tackles recent performances, race switchers and an ever-growing absentee list in this week's Road To Cheltenham. There's a Gold Cup bet too!
Road To Cheltenham exclusive: Minella Rocco 20/1 NRNB Cheltenham Gold Cup
For the second week running, the most significant action from the track took place among the various novice divisions. Yet even this good handful of notable performances was overshadowed by reports of an ever-growing absentee list among the more established stars.
Timico Gold Cup
News broke on Monday that Thistlecrack misses the Timico Gold Cup for the second year running. Following the results of a bone scan that revealed “a small stress fracture… at the top of the tibia”, trainer Colin Tizzard stated that the 2016 King George hero "is likely to be out for the season".
It’s hard to envisage a scenario whereby an injury such as this would be resolved to the satisfaction of connections even in time for the Punchestown Festival at the end of April. Unlike certain other potential resurrectees one could mention, in this case I suspect out means out – even if Tizzard was precise enough in his language to use “likely to be”.
Given this will be the second appreciable setback within one 12-month period, following news of a tendon tear last January, it’s hard to imagine this now ten-year-old ever again operating at the level he did during his bold novice-chasing season – or indeed his imperious hurdling campaign of 2015/16.
It was yet to be proven that he’d retained his old zip even prior to this latest setback, although his King George fourth – with ways of reading it to be better than that literal form – was undoubtedly a significant step forward on his seasonal debut over hurdles.
That leaves Tizzard, this time last year long-handed in Gold Cup prospects, perhaps looking solely to Native River to represent him in March if veteran flag-bearer Cue Card heads for the Ryanair - more on him later. The former, last year’s third, has maintained his relatively prominent position in a turbulent Gold Cup ante-post market due to not running so far this season.
Latest word is the Tizzards have reverted to plan A for his campaign this term and aim to give him one run – in Newbury’s Denman Chase that he won so impressively last year – prior to Cheltenham. Shocked by what they believe was misjudging Thistlecrack’s fitness for his return last November, they had then floated the idea of two prep runs for his stablemate prior to the Gold Cup.
They have since again cited last term’s tough schedule – including wins in the Hennessy and Welsh Grand National – to underpin their original decision for Native River. As I mentioned before, it also suggests to me that the Randox Health Grand National is at the forefront of their minds. And why not?
Talking of Native River, I’m inclined to take an each-way position for the Gold Cup with the horse who has twice beaten him at the Festival, Minella Rocco. I argued two Roads back that his Christmas Chase fourth came “in the manner of a horse who should do a lot better when returned to the superior test of stamina that is the Gold Cup”.
Now clearly, Rocco comes with a health warning: on a good day, don’t rely on him to jump all fences cleanly; on a bad day, any fence at all. But he’s clearly well suited by Cheltenham, having also won a vintage edition of the NH Chase in 2016 and can again expect to thrive in a well-run event with Native River, Bristol De Mai and Might Bite in the field.
Minella Rocco is a good each-way price at 20/1, which is generally available. You run the risk that he runs poorly in either the Cotswold Chase or Irish Gold Cup – in which case 16/1 NRNB is available to you – but unless that is in some way deleterious to his health, I’d argue it would probably be irrelevant to his Festival chance.
Road To Chelteham exclusive: Minella Rocco 20/1 NRNB Cheltenham Gold Cup
As I mentioned in the first Road of this series, I personally backed Might Bite for both the King George and Gold Cup back in April but in terms of this column, his odds for the latter race have always been a shade shorter than I liked at every juncture. It crossed my mind to suggest the 5/1 after the King George but I didn’t and now he’s 3/1 or shorter in every NRNB book currently or a shaky 4/1 in just one place under ante-post rules. Boat missed.
In this scenario, the type of horse I’d want to back against him is a thorough stayer. Again before this series started, I thought that horse might be Our Duke but a dirty scope and then a back operation after disappointing on his return to action is not the profile I’m seeking here.
To my mind that leads to either Native River or Minella Rocco – and the latter has two verdicts over the former and is up to twice his price. So it’s Rocco each-way at 20/1 for me.
His owner JP McManus could end up triple-handed for the Gold Cup after one of his trainers, Tony Martin, indicated he’d like to test recent seven-length Paddy Power Chase winner Anibale Fly at Grade One level in next month’s Irish Gold Cup. But Martin also disseminated the sort of caveat that all trainers employed by such a large-scale operation would always be wise to deploy.
“I haven’t talked to Frank [Berry, McManus’s racing manager] or JP about anything yet,” Martin said. “[Anibale Fly is] only turning eight and I suppose we’ll have to look at running him in those Graded races over a trip.”
McManus’s other Gold Cup player is Coney Island, whose odds greatly outstrip his achievements to date mostly because the established players have damaged their credentials for one reason or another. At least two of JP’s three-strong green-and-gold-hooped brigade, if not all of them if you include Rocco, could therefore potentially face off at Leopardstown.
Tom George has also stated that Double Shuffle now has the Gold Cup on his agenda after his career-best effort – whether flattered by his proximity to ante-post favourite Might Bite in the small print or not – when second in the King George.
Finally, if this is your kind of thing – it’s not mine – I should mention that Road To Respect is the obvious collateral mover in the Gold Cup market after Gigginstown’s Eddie O’Leary announced that he’s “likely to head straight to Cheltenham”.
While the Christmas Chase winner’s final destination at the Festival is not yet known, 10/1 NRNB strikes me as over-priced. It sounds like he won’t have the opportunity to blot his copybook between now and then whereas others such as Native River, Coney Island and Our Duke – all of whom are shorter than him at 8/1 NRNB – could. At least one surely will, if only relatively speaking.
Postscript: Entries for the Timico Gold Cup were released today and totaled 38 with no surprise omissions. They included another Gigginstown project in Valseur Lido, whom O’Leary says will run in the Irish Gold Cup. Expect him to feature among the Ryanair entries tomorrow, too.
Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase
The explosive device was safely detonated last Saturday, an explicit warning having been given out on the radio beforehand. Now Douvan, having been last month ruled out for the season, is “a long shot” to make the Cheltenham Festival or, if that proves impossible, “then he could make Punchestown”.
These were the words of trainer Willie Mullins in his Racing Post column, the hint having already been dropped when owner Rich Ricci spoke on talkSPORT2 in the preceding days – as flagged in last week’s Road.
“There is now a chance, admittedly a slim one, that he might see action before the end of the campaign,” Mullins said. “Consequently, we’ve decided to enter him in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham in the hope that he might come right in time for the Festival.
“Intermittent lameness had been the problem but he has been doing controlled exercise and is very sound, doing a lot of slow exercise. We’ve been pleasantly surprised by how well things are going with him.
“Our vets and other experts they have consulted think the problem could have been associated with an old injury resolving itself and we decided he merited an entry for Cheltenham in the hope that he will continue to progress and that the lameness will not resurface if and when he goes back into full work. Hopefully, we’ll be in a position for that to happen a lot sooner than we originally anticipated.
“It’s a long shot at this stage and getting him back on the track this season might not be a runner. He will need to tick all the boxes for that to happen. If it proves impossible for him to make Cheltenham then he could make Punchestown. Everything is up in the air but we are cautiously optimistic now compared with the situation a month ago.”
To recap, Douvan’s unbeaten record over fences came to an end when he pulled up with a fractured pelvis in last season’s Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase. He then missed his comeback engagement in December’s Tingle Creek after displeasing Mullins during his preparations and a few days later it was announced that Douvan “won’t be running this season”.
This was an uncharacteristically prompt and unequivocal statement for Mullins – but it was no sign of a newly found apostasy from his Trappist philosophy. We’ll see ample evidence later of his belief that trainers should speak only when absolutely necessary. This episode can only have strengthened his disdain for idle talk.
“No doubt people will ask why we came out last month and said Douvan would not run this season,” he said, addressing this subject later in his column. “That decision was based on veterinary advice at the time – and it might yet prove to be correct. However, the situation has changed slightly.”
Mullins would have preferred these developments to have played out privately but unless you run a hermetically sealed training unit – and few, if any, do – market-impacting information has a habit of revealing itself via the exchanges.
Therefore, the sensible call is to get on the front foot with keeping the public informed in a timely manner (and perhaps check your language for overblown certainty). The public, for our part in the deal, need to accept that – as I said in the fourth edition of this Road – “plans change and stuff happens”.
From the point of view of Mullins and Ricci, it is absolutely worth risking £435 to enter Douvan in the Champion Chase now – and perhaps also the Ryanair? – rather than be surprised by the patient’s rate of progress come March and be forced to contemplate a £17,500 supplementary fee.
Whether he stands his ground at the 13 February £870 forfeit stage could be telling. Let’s hope so because this more positive prognosis is welcome news to all objective fans of racing – even if the circumspection of Mullins’ language reads as though Cheltenham may remain a dream for Ricci.
In the NRNB markets, Douvan ranges from 3/1 to 5/1. The former is a daft price for a horse that’s been “intermittently lame” all season, the cause of which is still not known. That said, from the bookmakers’ point of view, in the scenario that he does start it’s likely to mean Min would be at best second string and at worst not running in this race at all. There’s also a chance Altior could have beaten Politologue in the Game Spirit by then…
Incidentally, the news from Seven Barrows on last year���s impressive Arkle hero continues to be consistently positive, so it appears increasingly likely that Altior will make it to the Festival. It still remains highly possible that the Champion Chase will be his seasonal debut, however, given trainer Nicky Henderson has again mentioned the racecourse gallop option. You can get 5/4 NRNB if you like dem odds first time out in the most competitive meeting of the entire season.
The remaining ante-post market is a mess of Mullins permutations. Of the nine shortest-priced horses, he trains six of them – six! – in Douvan, Min, Yorkhill, Footpad (NRNB lists only), Un De Sceaux and Great Field.
Clearly Ruby Walsh will want some say in what goes where, in the sense he’ll seek as many live chances in as many races as possible – if indeed he’s fit to ride by then. He has little influence over Footpad, however, whose owners, Simon Munir and Isaac Souede, retain Daryl Jacob. That said, Walsh has ridden that horse at the last two Festivals while Jacob partnered Sceau Royal against him instead – a faintly possible scenario should both horses contest the Arkle.
It’s highly unlikely that Ryanair titleholder Un De Sceaux will run here (although he will surely be entered). But Mullins has dropped it out – among other things – in a Steve Dennis article in the Racing Post headlined ‘Ready to run or on the easy list: what condition are jumping’s absent stars in?’ that his “main aim is to make Cheltenham” with Great Field.
Mullins reported that horse to be sidelined last autumn with what he now calls “a small setback”, adding that Great Field is due to rejoin the main yard from pre-training next week and he could be forward enough to take part in next month’s Dublin Festival at Leopardstown “if all is well”.
Despite this good news, 8/1 NRNB is deeply unattractive about a headstrong error-prone jumper who was pulled up on his only previous start at Cheltenham.
A far warmer order for the NRNB angle here – as he has been for many another race – is of course The Ubiquity In Equine form. We will discover tomorrow [Thursday], when entries are released for the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase, whether Mullins has entered Yorkhill – his enigma, my nemesis – in this, the right race.
Ryanair Chase
Any thought of running Cue Card at Kempton this Saturday, providing him with a welcome ease in grade, have been shelved following news of a seemingly minor setback.
“He’s got pus in a foot and has had his shoe off for three days, so he won’t be going to Kempton,” said Tizzard, who’ll presumably revert to the Grade One Ascot Chase plan – a race this superb horse won last year.
Otherwise, items to note prior to entries for the Ryanair Chase being released tomorrow [Thursday] include: The Ubiquity’s NRNB best price of 4/1 (compared with 10/1 in one place under ante-post terms) and stablemate Douvan only appearing in the Tote/BetFred lists at 10/1. That could change…
There are also six points of difference between Disko’s best NRNB and ante-post prices, the former being 10/1 with Bet365. That’s reasonable on last term’s JLT form in which, not ridden as positively as you’d have liked, he finished only three lengths behind Top Notch, a 5/1 shot here.
Finally, the novice Brain Power is entered against Ryanair titleholder and ante-post favourite Un De Sceaux in Ascot’s Grade One Clarence House Chase on Saturday week.
Despite his short odds, it’s conceivable the latter could be vulnerable, given he’s three years older, can find 2m1f sharp these days unless it’s testing ground and was only of a comparable standard to Brain Power over hurdles. His rival is also seemingly at his best going right-handed, having impressed most at this track, and this race may function as his Arkle, if that’s the case.
Brain Power ran extremely well until unseating at the last in the Grade One Henry VIII Novices’ Chase last time, perhaps helping to force things a little too hard and therefore becoming vulnerable to the patiently ridden Sceau Royal.
I’m sure Brain Power should be second favourite as things stand for the Clarence House and yet actually he’s 10/1 and even 12/1 in one place. You can back him each-way if you still fear Un De Sceaux – the race is only on Saturday week, after all. I can’t have either Waiting Patiently or Charbel being better than him. Fellow novice Cyrname is probably the bigger threat.
If Brain Power does win, Un De Sceaux will probably drift for the Ryanair. Whether that would be correct or not would depend on the details – Brain Power is a top-drawer horse – but if you like this reasoning you might want to consider getting your preferred Ryanair selection on side NRNB.
I should also mention Un De Sceaux’s scarce-sighted stablemate Black Hercules here, although he could conceivably also get a Gold Cup entry. He won the 2016 JLT by three lengths from Bristol De Mai but was trounced on all three starts last term and wasn’t sighted beyond mid-January.
Mullins was quoted in Dennis’s Racing Post article saying: “He’s in great form at the moment and we hope to run on Sunday at Fairyhouse.” That said, his name did not appear among the list of entries.
Finally, today’s Racing Post contained the surprise news that L’Ami Serge has been entered in the Ryanair – even though the Stayers’ Hurdle remains his medium-term target at this stage. He will even run over fences as his next outing but reportedly not at Kelso this Sunday where he holds an entry.
“He’s a better hurdler than chaser, although his best run was in the French Champion Hurdle, which is run over mini-fences,” said Anthony Bromley, racing manager to Simon Munir and Isaac Souede. “We’ll run him in a chase before the Festival, partly to see if he has improved over fences.
“His owners do have Wholestone as well for the Stayers’ which is at the back of our minds, but they also have Top Notch for the Ryanair. As such, the intention for L’Ami Serge is still the Stayers’ on the way back to the French Champion Hurdle.”
Unibet Champion Hurdle
Only left-field news here – both in terms of yak and a potential improver.
First, the yak: last season’s County Hurdle winner Arctic Fire has been retired – this news purportedly dropped out in passing in Dennis’s Racing Post article while discussing another horse.
Runner-up to Faugheen in the 2015 Champion Hurdle, arguably set to win the Grade One Aintree Hurdle on his next start when falling at the last and good enough to triumph at last year’s Festival from a mark of 158, Arctic Fire was a high-class performer. I’m sorry to hear we won’t see him race again.
Meanwhile, the Tizzards are entertaining dreams of the Champion Hurdle for last season’s Aintree novice-hurdle winner Pingshou. This lightly raced eight-year-old was only tenth in last year’s Supreme but improved markedly to win the Grade One Top Novices’ event and when third to Cilaos Emery later that April at Punchestown. He is yet to be sighted this season.
“He had a few niggly problems in the autumn and we had to take it steady with him,” said Joe Tizzard, son and assistant to Colin. “His target has always been the Champion Hurdle and the plan was to run in a couple of traditional trials to see where we were with him but that wasn’t possible – which isn’t ideal.
“He’s just returned to full work and the chances are he’ll go straight to Cheltenham now. He’ll stay hurdling this season and we’ll save novice chasing for next season.”
The official handicapper for this division says Pingshou has got 21lbs to find on titleholder Buveur D’Air – albeit this will be his first season out of novice company – and he’s a 50/1 shot (or 40/1 NRNB) to do so. He only joined the Tizzards last season and will be rising nine when he switches to fences next term – even if he is built for that job.
In terms of market-based yak, Faugheen is as short as 7/2 with Hills on ante-post terms. Book an appointment with a shrink and keep screening your bank manager’s calls if you think that is in any way a good idea. Given Ricci spoke of “cracking on”, it must be likely this horse will be trained for the Irish Champion Hurdle next month. One hitch in this plan and surely the retirement trigger is pulled?
The Ubiquity is best-priced at 5/1 NRNB as punters mull the contradiction of his trainer having in the recent past named this race as a potential target and how inadequately his clumsy jumping is likely to contrast with that of the favourite.
Finally, there is often a fast-improving handicapper who bridges the gap to graded class in this division. Last season, it was Brain Power; this time it could be stablemate Call Me Lord, who ran away with Sandown’s decent two-mile prize last Saturday from a mark of 143. He’s been raised a handy-looking 9lbs for pulling clear of in-form and/or well-treated rivals.
The deterrent from a Champion Hurdle – or even Betfair or County Hurdle – perspective is Henderson’s pre-race observation that the horse tends to hang right and would be campaigned accordingly.
Indeed, he hasn’t set foot on a left-handed track since joining the yard last April. He’s also merely a five-year-old – definitively too young for Cheltenham’s premier hurdling prize in the minds of many.
The Imperial Cup is the obvious choice for a horse said to love Sandown but given it’s worth far less than the Betfair Hurdle and connections haven’t actually yet chanced their arm left-handed to see whether their perception is well-founded, he could yet head there. If that works, he could also be an outsider to reckon with in this division.
Postscript: It emerged today that Call Me Lord has been entered in that valuable Newbury event, along with stablemate Charli Parcs, last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner Defi Du Seuil, Pingshou and – he lives! – Moon Racer.
Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle
So-called experts 1; How-Many-Winners-Have-You-Ridden 0. Yanworth, about whom trainer Alan King asserted after his fall at Exeter in November that “there was never any chance that he would switch back to hurdles”, will be entered in the Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle next week.
“What would be the point of that?” King asked at the time of the mooted switch of disciplines. “Yet I saw that suggestion being made and it does annoy me when so-called experts, who’ve never sat on a horse in their lives, say that sort of thing.”
I had hoped we’d got beyond the ‘if-you-ain’t-done-it-shut-up’ refrain that risks portraying racing as a joyless, unreflective pursuit for the non-participant. Part of the fun of being a racing fan is trying to work out, ahead of everybody else, what might happen down the line. It’s not intended to be slighting to those closest to a horse; it’s just an opinion. Everyone has them.
So King has belatedly come round to the idea. “All we’re doing is keeping all our options but my advice to ante-post punters is to sit tight at this stage,” he said, when making the announcement in his Weekender column this week.
“He’s won twice over fences but the staying-hurdle division looks wide open at the moment. I watched Supasundae run Apple’s Jade close at Leopardstown and that form would put Yanworth right into the mix – remember, he beat that horse when he won the Liverpool Hurdle.
“He’s unexposed over long distances as a hurdler because Aintree was the only time he ran over three miles and the Stayers’ Hurdle is a very valuable race this year, so I asked JP McManus if I could enter him to give us the option.”
Clearly, Yanworth will still be entered in the RSA and JLT Chases in a couple of weeks’ time and then owner McManus and/or racing manager Berry, in consultation with King, will decide what their squad looks like for each Festival race nearer the time. He ranges from 7/1 to 10/1 for this contest with those firms offering NRNB.
Another oh-so-predictable switcher is Finian’s Oscar. After also displaying a safety-first attitude to jumping fences, his next start will be in the Galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle on Trials Day at Cheltenham later this month. Previously, Colin Tizzard had argued that stepping back up in trip and/or headgear would bring about a transformation in chases. No longer.
“We’re going to switch back to hurdles for the rest of the season, with the aim being to run in the Stayers’ Hurdle,” said Tizzard. “He jumps fences adequately but I don’t think he’s that brave.
“If he doesn’t nearly win the Cleeve, we might go back to the RSA or JLT – and it might not hurt him to have a run over hurdles before returning to fences in any case – but the Cleeve and the Stayers’ is our view and what will probably happen.
“I need to look after him. I don’t want to run him in a big race over fences at Cheltenham when there’s a possibility he could shake them up in the Stayers’ Hurdle. On last season’s hurdles form, you’d have to think he could be a major contender as well.”
According to the official handicapper for this division, Finian’s Oscar has 11lbs to find on a conservatively rated Sam Spinner, for example, on the basis of his existing hurdles mark but you would confidently expect him to bridge at least some of that disparity. Whether he wants three miles is perhaps open to question, mind.
“I don’t for one minute think the Stayers’ will be an easy race,” said Tizzard. “But there’s also no reason why any number of horses won’t switch back from fences to have a go at it. Once a horse goes chasing, he doesn’t have to stay chasing for the rest of his life.”
Last December, Jockey Club Racecourses announced a £25,000 increase in the total purse for this prize as part of a seven per cent rise in prize money for the entire meeting. That makes the Stayers’ Hurdle worth almost twice the amount of either the RSA or JLT Novices’ Chases.
This fact evidently concentrated King’s mind and might yet attract more connections to make similar calculations.
Willoughby Court, last year’s Neptune (now Ballymore) winner and only third behind Yanworth over fences last time, might also be given a Stayers’ engagement – although the idea came across from trainer Ben Pauling’s as thrust upon him rather than being self-generated.
“I wouldn’t rule out giving Willoughby Court an entry in the Stayers’ Hurdle,” he said. “I don’t know why we’d suddenly change tack but it gives us another option.”
In other news, Mullins confirmed in that informative Dennis piece that last year’s Albert Bartlett winner Penhill is “back in training and in great form”. The main aim is the Stayers’ Hurdle, with sights also set on Punchestown beyond. He hasn’t run since that fixture last term so it’s good to know he’s in the land of the living. He’s a unanimous 8/1 NRNB.
This column’s 20/1 ante-post selection Supasundae reportedly heads to the Irish Champion Hurdle next, rather than to anything over a staying trip, to hone him for this blend of speed and stamina.
Finally, trainer Neil King says last year’s runner-up Lil Rockerfeller is in good shape following his below-par effort in Ascot’s Long Walk Hurdle and heads to the National Spirit at Fontwell next month, a race he won two seasons ago.
OLBG Mares’ Hurdle
Breaking news from the Cistercian Order: Mullins’ two leading mares are both alive but, aside from that, all options remain open. Or at least they perhaps do in the case of Vroum Vroum Mag; Limini – it suddenly emerges – is “likely to miss the rest of the jumps season”.
Useful to know, when you’re talking about what in some cases were the second and third favourites for the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle and the two horses who most closely chased home Apple’s Jade, this year’s odds-on market leader, in the 2017 edition.
Again, we must thank Dennis’s ‘Ready To Run?’ article for this valuable news. If only Mullins had a regular outlet for timelier communications, we’d all be so much better informed… Oh.
“We’ve always had a Flat campaign in mind for her, which we could put into practice this summer,” Mullins said of last year’s third, Limini. “Or she could instead be covered and retire.”
Certainly, both owner and trainer have previously referred to ambitions to race Limini on the Flat. She won three times in France at a relatively modest level for Nicolas Clement and Mullins is certainly adept at switching horses from jumping to make a significant impact on the other code, but LImini is seven years of age, so you wonder whether the moment has passed.
For Vroum Vroum Mag, there is apparently still hope that she might make it back to the track for a jumps campaign even though both her last intended and last actual races have been affected by lameness.
“She had a setback at the time of the Morgiana [in November],” confirmed Mullins, before covering all bases. “She’s well now and could go back into training. Alternatively, she may be covered and retired.”
The Quevega Precedent deters me from entirely writing her off as a OLBG Mares’ Hurdle contender – although I don’t recall hearing of setbacks in the preparation of Mullins’ six-time winner of this now Grade One event. Clearly, that doesn’t mean there weren’t any…
Whatever, I’d say that puts The Road’s 12/1 each-way selection Let’s Dance into pole position for this race chez Mullins, with only the small matter of Apple’s Jade potentially in her path. At this rate of attrition, she could again wind up being Ricci’s chief hope of a Festival winner – as it turned out she was last year, when she won the Dawn Run.
The two bookmakers offering NRNB on this race, Sky Bet and Bet365, have also taken the precaution of installing at 4/1 owner- and stablemate Benie Des Dieux; Paddy Power have her only one point longer on ante-post terms.
That prudence is understandable given Mullins has won eight of the ten editions of this race so far and Ricci had two shots at the prize 12 months ago. This mare’s Irish chase form puts her in the same ballpark as Let’s Dance in ability terms to date but she hasn’t raced over hurdles for more than two years.
Although Poppy Kay won at Sandown over the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle trip of 2m4f last Saturday, she shapes as though a strongly run two miles would see her to best effect. I doubt she’d have the stamina for this Cheltenham event, with its undulations and stiff finish.
This scopey mare – already an eight-year-old but lightly raced – travelled strongly throughout the Mares’ Listed Hurdle yet had to battle far harder than this would have indicated to quell the tenacious Midnight Jazz.
Poppy Kay didn’t frighten her: Midnight Jazz is the mare who gave a sickening (it was subsequently said) Vroum Vroum Mag such a fright at Doncaster last term. First-time cheekpieces seemed to revive her powers of obstinance last Saturday.
The winner’s stated target of the Betfair Hurdle – confirmed as entered today – looks ideal, given it should enable jockey Richard Johnson to keep her smothered up behind horses as long as possible. She’s also effective on a variety of ground.
The Sandown race now forms part of what has very much become a success story for the British Horseracing Authority in terms of encouraging owner-breeders to actually race their mares and keep them in training rather than breeding from them after little or no competition. The most concerted drive to enhance this programme is now in its eighth year and the ultimate ambition is to stage a mares’ chase at the Cheltenham Festival, if possible.
That said, quite often when mares stray beyond this bubble into open compeny, they can struggle. Clearly that hasn’t applied at the top level with the likes of Annie Power and Apple’s Jade herself and I suspect Poppy Kay is well capable of working a mark like 135 at Newbury next month.
“Poppy Kay would be suited by a bigger field and stronger pace,” confirmed her owner-breeder, Aiden Murphy, at Sandown. “She travels really well in her races and was a bit keen early today. She could go for the mares’ hurdle at Cheltenham with her rating but mote likely one of the handicaps.”
Murphy also said he was interested in trying his mare over fences and that could further delay thoughts of sending her to the paddocks to breed – exactly what the BHA’s Jump Pattern Committee would have hoped to hear.
In the short term, however, two-mile handicap hurdles are the most sensible target given the mare has more than a stone – how much more depends on your view – to find with the titleholder of this race.
It should be noted that Dusky Legend – runner-up in the last two renewals of the Dawn Run – was withdrawn from Poppy Kay’s Sandown race. Yet the fact trainer Alan King had switched her to hurdles after she failed to win in three attempts, the latest ending in a fall at Newbury, suggests she will be entered in the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle.
She’s not yet quoted anywhere for the race and yet her Festival record would suggest she’d be a place player.
Two closing news items: first, Jer’s Girl – a faller in this race last year – has suffered a setback and is off games for six weeks according to trainer Gavin Cromwell and, second, Forge Meadow – runner-up to Let’s Dance last time but a disappointment in the 2017 Dawn Run – “definitely” won’t ship to Cheltenham because Jessica Harrington deems her a poor traveller.
Novice chasers
At Naas last Sunday, French recruit Demi Sang made his Irish debut for Mullins and McManus in a two-mile novice chase.
He looked a shade outpaced by the typically assertive tactics of Avenir D’Une Vie and lacked alacrity at his fences but had just got himself comfortable again when landing awkwardly at the second last.
He then had to be hard ridden to get past the front-runner, whose last-time habit of jumping right had been less in evidence, on the dash to the line. They pulled more than nine lengths clear of their two pursuers.
The winner hails from the family of Welsh National winner Notre Pere and Champion Hurdle runner-up Osana but Mullins is inclined to keep him at two miles for now and clearly regards him quite highly. On this evidence, a strongly run race would serve better, provided he can get his jumping slicker.
"I thought he spent too much time in the air at a few fences,” acknowledged Mullins. “We’ll see how he progresses and he could go to Leopardstown for the Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle Chase next month.”
If he ends up in Cheltenham’s Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy – for which Bet365 make him 16/1 NRNB – he might face the likes of Brain Power and Cyrname, both of whom could lock horns with more established top-drawer chasers if lining up in the Clarence House Chase on Saturday week.
There is a suspicion, stated openly by the latter’s trainer Paul Nicholls, that both those novices could be better racing right-handed. Nicky Henderson, the former’s trainer, pitched his recent Arkle winners Sprinter Sacre and Altior into open company in the Game Spirit prior to returning to novice waters at the Festival. This entry is surely an indication of his regard for Brain Power as well as a good fit in the horse’s overall campaign.
Returning to Team Mullins, Livelovelaugh carried the Ricci silks to victory in a 2m4f Cork beginners’ chase at odds-on. He jumped soundly under a positive ride, scarcely pressed at his fences, to beat Drumconnor Lad by three lengths. The winner shaped like a thorough stayer and the runner-up was a bit better than the literal form.
“Livelovelaugh will be a better chaser [than hurdler], we hope,” said Mullins. “He loves galloping and jumping and I would not be afraid to go up in trip with him. He’ll have to go Graded next time and we’ll see where we stand then.”
Meanwhile, Henderson’s cunning plan to bag a £60,000 bonus for winning a race at Plumpton combined with a Festival event were thwarted when Rather Be unseated Jeremiah McGrath at the third fence last Sunday. The horse ran down the fence and then jumped right, scuffed the birch and unbalanced his jockey out of the left-hand side-door.
His trainer will now be anxious to find a better – albeit less potentially lucrative – experience prior to the horse contesting the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase at Cheltenham.
Finally, Gigginstown spokesperson Eddie O’Leary has stated that JLT fancy Death Duty will unfortunately miss the remainder of the season after damaging some ligaments during the Grade One Racing Post Novices’ Chase that ended for him in a final-fence fall.
“He suffered the injury early on in the race at Leopardstown, which is why he never travelled,” asserted O’Leary. “He’s had a small operation but hopefully he’ll make a full recovery and we’ll have him back next season.”
O’Leary also announced that recent Grade One-winning mare Shattered Love will ultimately head for the RSA Chase, via the 2m5f Flogas Chase at the same top level.
Novice hurdlers
At last, Summerville Boy got the strongly run race he needs when beating another smart novice in Kalashnikov by four lengths in last Saturday’s Grade One Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown in a comparatively good time.
Having been patiently ridden with signs of keenness at first, he moved into contention three out before a good jump took him to the lead at the penultimate flight.
He then wandered a tad in front in the heavy ground and got in too close to the final hurdle, causing jockey Noel Fehily to have to ride with one foot out of his iron for the run-in and permitting the runner-up brief hope. That was soon dashed by Summerville Boy’s determined finish, despite shifting right due to Fehily’s issues, up that last stiff incline.
“Cheltenham was a falsely run race and we hacked early – Summerville Boy was very free,” Fehily said, referring to the December event in which his mount finished third behind the re-opposing Western Ryder. That day he was also held up too far off that pedestrian pace – probably for reasons of getting the horse to settle, admittedly.
“We went a more even gallop today and he settled better,” Fehily continued. “He’s a very nice horse. He’ll definitely get further. He’s a big baby and Tom [George, his trainer] has been minding him, running him in these good races because if he didn’t win, he’d keep his novice status for next year. He’ll definitely be better next year.”
While those words bode well for Summerville Boy’s medium-term prospects, it isn’t the endorsement for a winning novice-hurdler at the Festival to my mind. The alarm bells are “big baby”, “better next year” and George’s apparent fallback plan for next season. That said, Fehily was also particularly insistent that the horse “hated” the heavy ground; his action would endorse that view.
Even though a strongly run two miles patently suited, it should be noted that Summerville Boy’s owner Roger Brookhouse has the Ballymore in mind for this – and he tends to make the final decision on such matters or else he finds a different trainer.
Amy Murphy was pleased with Kalashnikov, also arguing the ground was not to his taste. “He’s such a good-actioned horse, I think the ground has just told the whole way up the straight. He was so tough. He’s probably going to need two-and-a-half miles now.
“I’d say he’d go straight to Cheltenham. He’ll probably be a tired boy – it’s the first time he’s had a race. I think he’ll go to the Neptune (now Ballymore).”
I’m inclined to agree with everything Murphy said – this likeable horse was on and off the bridle at Sandown, looking uncomfortable on the ground, and has shaped like a stayer both there and when pulling away from Irish Prophecy at Doncaster last month. All that said, his name appeared today among the 59 entries for the two-mile Betfair Hurdle next month.
Finishing further back, Mont Des Avaloirs had taken the field along at a good clip but shaped to run out exiting the back straight and his jumping also unraveled, to the point he totally lost balance at the second last and trailed his hind legs in the mud in a nasty-looking wobble.
Western Ryder, who’d beaten Summerville Boy by almost six lengths lengths at Cheltenham, was reported to be ‘normal’ by the racecourse vets after trailing in 31 lengths behind the winner this time.
Jockey Richard Johnson asserted he couldn’t handle the ground, according to trainer Warren Greatrex. “[Richard] said down the back [straight] he came alive again and thought it was game on, but as soon as he hit the soft ground he was struggling,” Greatrex added.
In another Grade One on the other side of the Irish Sea, Next Destination asserted his Ballymore credentials in a Naas race that threw up much to analyse.
In contrast with Sandown, this was a steadily run affair with the entire field still bunched together turning into the straight. The positives for the winner are his good jumping and straightforward attitude – he got this job done with the minimum of fuss.
That enables all of us to continue calling him the best horse for owner Malcolm Denmark since Monsignor, the 2000 winner of his intended Festival contest. But 18 years later, it is shaping up to be a hot renewal and I would suggest Next Destination could be given plenty more to think about even by third-placed stable companion Duc Des Genievres should they both line up there.
That horse was having his first start in Ireland and for Mullins. He was patiently ridden, allowed to lose a more forward pitch in a slowly run race. He was still going well when switched sharply right off the inside rail to deliver his challenge soon after entering the straight. He then wasn’t particularly fluent at the last and kept on well without ever looking like reaching the winner. For a horse having just his second-ever outing, this was highly encouraging.
Of the winner, Mullins said: “He was able to overcome the slow pace, which didn’t suit him. His jumping was very good throughout and because of it he found himself in front a bit soon. It’s very testing out there and he handled it well.
“He’ll be entered for the Albert Bartlett but I’d imagine the Ballymore will be his race. He’ll get a better-run race at Cheltenham. Whether he’ll run again before the Festival, I don’t know.”
Runner-up Cracking Smart was gaining on Next Destination at the post after getting outpaced and then taking a long time to get going again. He shaped as though a step up to three miles for the Albert Bartlett would suit and, if that proves to be his target, this can be taken as a positive item of form.
Owners Gigginstown have a good record in this tough Cheltenham event, having won it with Weapon’s Amnesty in 2009 and Very Wood in 2014. In terms of experience, Cracking Smart would be similar to the former – but that horse was good enough to go on to win the RSA the following season.
At Ayr early last week, Better Getalong proved a different grade to his rivals in the novices’ hurdle. He’d previously finished third behind Slate House and Summerville Boy in that odd little race at Cheltenham in which three of the eight hurdles were omitted due to the low sun.
Better Getalong runs in the famous Monet’s Garden silks of David Wesley Yates and has been described by both owner and trainer Nicky Richards as “a bit of a lad”. This was a more professional display, however, with the horse settling well, jumping soundly and travelling comfortably for a four-and-a-half-length success.
There were still some signs of inexperience nut the direction of travel is positive. Assistant trainer Harry Haynes, admitting the Ayr contest was “a penalty kick”, agreed. “He just had a little look around at the last but I am sure he was idling and could have pulled out a lot more if necessary. He will possibly be better on better ground.”
Kelso’ Morebattle Hurdle is a possible target next month – potentially a sharp step up in grade as it’s a race sometimes used as a last-gasp Champion Hurdle prep and has been won by the likes of Peddlers Cross, Simonsig, Top Notch and Cyrius Darius in the recent past.
One potential opponent could be fellow novice Claimantakinforgan, who ducked the Tolworth due to the heavy ground. This race is on trainer Henderson’s radar, despite it being decidedly Oop North, although the Dovecote at Kempton is another option.
Juvenile hurdlers
The Grade One Finale Hurdle was rearranged along with the rest of Chepstow’s Welsh National card to last Saturday following its abandonment last month. The going was nonetheless testing, of course.
It produced a tussle between two smart prospects, with the winner value for a bit more than the bare length-and-a-half in my book. That winner was We Have A Dream, previously a wide-margin victor on good ground at Doncaster.
He jumped impeccably and travelled through this race comfortably, covering Jamie Moore’s attacking move on runner-up Sussex Ranger at the third last with some ease and making headway pretty much on the bridle to lead approaching the last.
But that rival – hardened for the battle via much Flat experience – proved harder to quell than you might have expected. That I put down to non-ideal ground for We Have A Dream and both the tenacity and ability of Sussex Ranger.
Having liked each of their last races, I formed an even more positive opinion about them both as a result of this. Valuably, the winner demonstrated versatility here, accepting a more patient ride and now appears in Sky Bet’s NRNB list for the Supreme, along with stable companion and fellow juvenile Apple’s Shakira.
Yet I don’t see any reason why he wouldn’t line up alongside that filly in the Triumph, given they’re owned by different people. After all, Henderson saddled the 1-2-3 three years ago, with both the winner and runner-up carrying We Have A Dream’s silks of Munir and Souede.
Refreshingly, Moore later commented that a better horse beat his mount but that doesn’t mean Sussex Ranger won’t prove useful, too – even if his rider also thinks Cheltenham probably wouldn’t be his bag.
Over at Sandown that same day, Crucial Moment won the opening hurdles event but you’d fancy runner-up Mister Chow – stablemate to Sussex Ranger – to perhaps reverse the form were they to meet again.
The winner’s owner was selling all the time after the race – and you can hardly blame him, given the fever that’s generated by the prospect of a potential Festival runner. Trainer Bill Turner has the Fred Winter in mind and the horse jumps well but he’s going to have to improve quite a bit yet.
Over at Ludlow earlier in the week, Look My Way landed odds of 1/6 to get off the mark over hurdles - despite hanging markedly left in the closing stages. This was a trait he also displayed on the Flat and new trainer John Quinn has concluded he must race on left-handed tracks in future.
“Based on what we’ve seen today, he’d need another run in similar company to get more experience,” he said. “He’s not ready for throwing in anywhere. His jumping will improve. He needs to slicken up but it’s not easy out of that ground. On the Flat he did improve and I can see him doing the same over jumps.”
SKY BET ODDS: JCB Triumph Hurdle
Selections:
Advised 30/11/17: Min 8/1 Champion Chase with Paddy Power/Betfair
Advised 06/12/17: Supasundae 20/1 Stayers’ Hurdle with Bet365 and Paddy Power/Betfair
Advised 06/12/17: Mengli Khan 15/2 for the Supreme with Betfair
Advised 13/12/17: On The Blind Side 10/1 each-way for the Ballymore with various firms
Advised 31/12/17: Let’s Dance 12/1 each-way for the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle with William Hill
Advised 31/12/17: Presenting Percy 8/1 for the RSA Chase with BetVictor, BetFred, Boylesports or Stan James
Advised 05/01/18: Apple’s Jade 100/30 NRNB for the Stayers’ Hurdle with Betfair Sportsbook
Advised 05/01/18: Poetic Rhythm 25/1 each-way for the Albert Bartlett with William Hill, Paddy Power of Betfair Sportsbook
Back now: Minella Rocco at 20/1 each-way for the Gold Cup with various firms
Road To Chelteham exclusive: Minella Rocco 20/1 NRNB Cheltenham Gold Cup
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