Lydia Hislop's Road to Cheltenham including Cheltenham Gold Cup and RSA Chase tips

Recommended bets: Road to Cheltenham

Shattered Love e/w at 33/1 [Sky Bet EXCLUSIVE Price Boost] in Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup

Topofthegame e/w at 16/1 [General] in RSA Chase

This week, the Unibet Champion Hurdle pool became yet shallower – even if it did regain a familiar fish – and a number of novices made noteworthy advancements in their respective shoals.

Meanwhile in news from the sidelines, trainer Willie Mullins announced that Yorkhill has “met with a setback” but will hopefully “make it back for the second half of the season”. His trainer wasn’t any more specific than that – no blaming it on the brown – so I’m left to suspect that final sausage in the Margate mega breakfast might have played a part.

I mention this news here because I wouldn’t have the first clue where to position it in the sections that follow. In all seriousness, however, I wish Yorkhill’s connections well with his recovery. It would be great if, one day, we all could get to see the talent in which those closest to him believe.

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Unibet Champion Hurdle

The latest renewal of the Unibet International Hurdle was notable on three counts. Primarily, in prompting the retirement of one of the most popular horses of the past decade but also in usefully repurposing a frustrating talent and in underlining a worrying lack of young thrusters among the second-season generation.

Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies were as good as their word with The New One, providing him with a first-time-visored opportunity to prove the fire still burned within but taking no chances when it became clear they were kicking over the ashes of a career at the top flight. His racing exploits were thus immediately brought to an honourable conclusion.

The ten-year-old dual Grade One winner set off with enthusiasm and, at times, instinctively out-jumped the pressing Vision Des Flos on the far side of the track. But he literally had no response as his rivals started to motor at the second last, causing Sam to sensibly pull him up before the final flight. Then, there were tears – on horseback, in the unsaddling enclosure and around the paddock, when The New One paraded for the appreciation of those gathered there.

"It's a very sad day," Nigel Twiston-Davies said in tribute. "When push came to shove, Sam said he doesn't have it in him anymore. He's loving life, that's the most important thing. He was a great help in getting Sam going and has been the most wonderful horse for us. He's part of the family. He's not going anywhere, we'll look after him."

It’s still sad to think we’ll never see The New One laying it all out there on the racecourse again but that feeling starts to dissipate when you consider the happy, cherished retirement that awaits him and the joy he has brought to so many, whether close to him or watching as a fan, during the course of six straight seasons competing at the apex of hurdling.

It was a pity that Baltic conditions last Saturday undoubtedly curtailed the number of jumps fans on hand to applaud this horse’s achievements but surely the Cheltenham executive will exhort Team Twiston-Davies to bring him to future Festivals to parade prior to the Champion Hurdle – a race he never won but to which he nonetheless contributed so much.

We do have another repeat contender for that March contest as a result of the International, however, in the mildly unexpected form of Brain Power. Mildly in the sense that he did line up the highest-rated hurdler at last Saturday’s party. Yet the race conditions saw him receiving weight from all bar Western Ryder.

Nicky Henderson had stated prior to Brain Power’s inclusion in the line-up that switching from fences and reapplying cheekpieces were the suggestion of owner Michael Buckley and he continued to confer all credit when the idea paid off.

"I was dying to run Brain Power in the Peterborough Chase wearing cheekpieces – although I'm the first to admit that due to his chasing technique he doesn't find it easy over fences," Henderson admitted. "He isn't convincing over fences but he has a stack of ability, as he has just showed."

Brain Power largely hurdled well, getting too close to the fifth and lacking fluency is the worst I can level at him, and travelled initially keenly and then strongly – so strongly that winning rider Nico de Boinville declared he'd "almost got there too soon but… I just thought I’d go and let him enjoy himself". His mount was idling up the final hill, having decisively killed the race off approaching the final flight.

Connections are now unanimous that Brain Power will remain over hurdles, de Boinville observing that they’d "found his groove again" and that his confidence could further recover as a result of this success. A few tweaks over the summer – operations to correct both a kissing spine and his breathing – can only have helped.

Prior to this, I hadn’t been convinced that Brain Power liked racing left-handed, whether over fences or hurdles, and I’m not going to take this swallow to signify a summer in Champion Hurdle terms. He was much the best horse in a relatively shallow race and while 16/1 is probably still a tad long in a lop-sided market dominated by his stablemate Buveur D’Air – to whom he finished eighth in the 2017 edition – he still doesn’t appeal.

In Brain Power’s wake, the younger generation failed to make a big sensation. Morning favourite Summerville Boy was again notably uneasy in the betting and ran accordingly, ultimately fading to finish 23 lengths adrift of the winner. Much has been made about the quality of his jumping but, while I don’t dismiss this as a concern, the overarching problem goes much deeper to my mind.

Yes, he wasn’t particularly quick when in flight last Saturday but his only real mistake came when already stretched as The New One jumped habitually right ahead of him at the second last. Yet it’s far more of an issue that last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner needed urging into his hurdles from an early stage and was struggling to stay with an attainable group of rivals from just past halfway. There appears to be something fundamentally wrong, in my opinion.

Summerville Boy beat Western Ryder by seven-and-a-half lengths in March and yet, here, that horse was able to stick on dourly for third after always being slightly outpaced from approaching three out. The first-time cheekpieces didn't sufficiently help him to travel and he's shaping as though a step back up in trip might suit – and, more relevantly, that he’s just not quite good enough. He’s in good heart in himself, however, and is running consistently.

Fellow graduates from the novice ranks, Vision Des Flos and the juvenile We Have A Dream, were also unable to make any material impact. That it was nonetheless the latter’s best effort yet this season says it all.

Ultimately, best of the rest in the International was improving handicapper Silver Streak, who followed up his Welsh Champion Hurdle success and out-positioned second in the Greatwood with this career-best performance on his first sally into Grade Two company.

He didn’t jump as well as he can, lacking fluency at one or two hurdles and blundering at the penultimate flight, but stuck to his task well for a determined second, even if he lacked the speed to even briefly threaten the winner. He’s improved with every start this season and 66/1 for the Champion Hurdle with the sponsors is plain insulting.

As his trainer Evan Williams put it: “Silver Streak might not win a Champion Hurdle but he could get a place - although I'm sure Barry [Geraghty, who rode him last Saturday] will tell me he's two stones worse than Buveur D'Air."

While we’re yakking, Buckley mentioned on Racing TV’s Luck On Sunday show that Geraghty once admitted to him that Brain Power had finished ten lengths clear of Buveur D’Air on the Seven Barrows gallops. Even Buckley wasn’t claiming this meant his horse could beat the reigning champion, but it does give ballast to the idea that a Champion Hurdle campaign is the correct course.

Finally, I asked Gordon Elliott about Samcro at Cheltenham last Friday and he was sticking to his position that the horse stays hurdling and will re-oppose Buveur D’Air in March with no expectation of reversing the form.

However, he did mention that “we’ll have to change a few things for March”. Pressed on what those few things were, he said: “We might ride him a bit different and do a few things different. I think Cheltenham will suit him a bit better than Newcastle but, still, Buveur D’Air is class.”

I’m still wondering about those “few things different” that involve neither the track nor the tactics. It’s nagging away at me that they could prove pivotal in a contest that currently has few realistic contenders.

One of them, Melon, is scheduled to reappear in the Grade One Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown on Saturday week after missing last month’s Morgiana due to failing to please his trainer Willie Mullins in work that week. Stablemate Laurina missed the International because, according to her trainer in his Racing Post column that morning, “there doesn’t seem to be any rain arriving”.

Thankfully, Mullins’ training skills mean he won’t be seeking employment in meteorology any time soon. More convincingly, he also sought to allay any creeping doubts about the non-appearance of last term's deeply impressive winner of the Trull House Stud Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle.

“I know some of you might be a little concerned that Laurina has yet to appear this season but don’t be,” he said. “I am not one bit bothered that she hasn’t come out yet as she is in terrific form at home and I could not be any happier with where I have her…

“The Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day is a real possibility for her now, unless we can find a more suitable race in shallow waters for her to dip her toes into."

Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle

I really do think it’s worth giving Vision Des Flos a spin over longer trips, hence why I mention him in detail here rather than in the Champion Hurdle section. He pressed The New One for the lead from the third obstacle in the Unibet International Hurdle and then got out-speeded in the straight. Although he ultimately dropped to fifth, he kept on at the one pace up the hill.

It would seem late in the season to revert to chasing, given his debut resulted in him unseating Tom Scudamore at Ffos Las, so something like the Relkeel over 2m4f – a race over which Laurina might cast a large shadow – or even the Cleeve over three miles, both at Cheltenham, might be worth a try.

Old Guard finished one place behind in sixth last Saturday and has again been kept busy in the first half of the season, running consistently well. He couldn’t quite manage to get involved here and is likely to remain pot-hunting this season over trips ranging from two to three miles. A repeat success in Fontwell’s Grade Two National Spirit would seem a suitable ambition.

He is yet to contest the Stayers’ Hurdle, having been withdrawn due to the ground last term. At past Festivals, he’s finished seventh in the 2017 Coral Cup and ninth in the 2015 Triumph but – quite rightly in his case – it’s not the focus of his season.

The shortest-priced British-trained contender in this ante-post market is Call Me Lord, who ranges from 10/1 to twice that and whom trainer Nicky Henderson maintains must go right-handed (without ever having raced him the other way around).

Call Me Lord is set to make both his seasonal debut and take a first stab at three miles at Ascot this Saturday but is already 2/1 favourite in a line-up his trainer has stated will also include stablemates Top Notch and Soul Emotion.

Harry Fry could field a trio of representatives, too, in Unowhatimeanharry, If The Cap Fits and the mare Momella for a Grade One contest that is also the target of titleholder Sam Spinner. Lil Rockerfeller wasn’t declared at the five-day stage despite trainer Neil King citing it as an option last Friday.

OLBG Mares’ Hurdle

Trainer Noel Williams scored in Cheltenham's mares' handicap hurdle for the second time in three years when Sensulano followed in the footsteps of Briery Queen last Saturday.

Others were going better than the winner turning for home but she responded to Barry Geraghty’s urgings in a most positive manner, muscling between horses for a clear shot at the last but then coasting once she’d hit the front.

Although on her former stable companion won this contest from just a 1lb higher mark, I can’t help but feel her form held more substance at this stage in their respective careers. Briery Queen went on to finish fifth, less than sixth lengths adrift of Apple’s Jade in the 2017 OLBG Mares’ Hurdle – the deepest edition of this race to date.

The highly likeable Sensulano is also on an upward curve but might find her metier lies over further, perhaps upped to three miles.

Ryanair Chase

By strict weights and measures, dual Caspian Caviar Gold Cup winner Frodon has no business languishing on 12/1 in some Ryanair markets. He should – at least – be vying for favouritism, given he is now officially rated 3lbs higher than last year’s winner Balko Des Flos and 1lb higher than runner-up and 2017 victor Un De Sceaux.

For good measure, his official rating of 169 is also 2lbs higher than Min and 3lbs higher than Footpad, the Willie Mullins-trained pair who stand as favourite or joint-favourites in every ante-post book at prices mostly ranging from 4/1 to 7/1.

This was the second time that Frodon had won Cheltenham’s putatively competitive Grade Three handicap. Memorably he managed it for the first time aged just four, so it’s perfectly believable that he should still be improving two years later. That said, his January course-and-distance win in more testing ground was a performance at least of equal merit.

He is clearly the ideal foil for Bryony Frost, whose unhurried positivity on board clearly gets the best out of him – his top four performances have been achieved at her hands, three of them this season. Frodon is a superb jumper and his rider enables him to utilise that skill at every fence; last Saturday, he simply broke Baron Alco by metronomically out-leaping him.

He won this from 164 – from a mark 15lbs higher than his 2016 success – making it one of the better handicap performances of recent times. Not as good as Denman’s 2009 Hennessy success off 174 or Well Chief’s 2005 Victor Chandler victory off 176 or Azertyuiop’s 2004 Haldon Gold Cup win off 174 or even his neck defeat in the Victor Chandler earlier that year off 168. But very good indeed.

“Frodon an amazing horse, the improvement in him has been astonishing,” said Paul Nicholls, who trained two of those three great chasers to deliver their extraordinary handicap achievements. “He's not very big and he was brilliant there. He deserves to step up in class now. We'll work backwards from the Ryanair and he could go for the Ascot Chase.”

Yet another way of looking at Frodon is that he’s five times been tried at Grade One level and five times he has come up short. By which I mean, when he’s completed, short by 17 lengths or further. It hasn’t been a closely fought thing.

Perhaps working backwards from the Ryanair might help. It implies that being beaten more than 36 lengths by Balko Des Flos in last year’s renewal came about by causation rather than design, that Frodon ended up there because there was nowhere else to go. He will already have had one fewer pre-Christmas outings than last year and it sounds like he’ll have one fewer in the new year prior to Cheltenham as well. Frost will surely also get to ride him, too – clearly a benefit.

However, it may also be that Frodon is in his element when torching inferior rivals with his jumping in big-field handicaps. It stands to reason that the more rarefied the company, the better the opposition is likely to be at the mechanics of chasing – jumping rhythmically and sustaining a strong gallop – and the less easy they will be to intimidate.

It’s going to be fascinating to find out which interpretation is the correct one. If I had to guess, I’d say he’s best when playing big fish to a small pond. But I could be wrong. Quite a bit of me hopes I am.

In Frodon’s wake last Saturday, his final challenger Cepage produced a career best in receipt of 7lbs but Rather Be bitterly disappointed those who believed they’d identified the rightful winner of the BetVictor Gold Cup when he fell at the fourth last. That’s a long way out for a coronation.

Afterwards, trainer Nicky Henderson asserted that Rather Be had not enjoyed getting to the start too early in extremely wintry conditions and rider Jerry McGrath reported that he was beaten by the third fence. Diddums. We’ll have to see whether can we can arrange the weather to suit you better, Rather Be. What did Frodon have to say about it?

As mentioned above and last week, Rather Be’s stablemate Top Notch – deemed a leading contender for last term’s Ryanair until disappointing in the Ascot Chase and failing to fire in time for Cheltenham – must be due out soon, with entries in both the Long Walk Hurdle and the King George. Henderson is currently favouring the former target.

That Ascot Chase hero Waiting Patiently remains on target to make his reappearance in the latter Kempton event after pleasing connections on a breeze around Hexham last week – if that’s not a contradiction in terms. Brian Hughes worked him for under a circuit, reportedly jumping four fences accurately, with a stable companion giving them a lead throughout.

“It wasn’t really a gallop, to be honest,” said Hughes. “It was just a case of letting him have a day away, having not run in a while. He cantered behind his lead horse and jumped the fences well and Ruth [Jefferson, his trainer] was happy with him. From my point of view, he felt great and was nice and settled.

"It's obviously going to be a tough ask - running in a King George on his first run of the season - but it is what it is. He feels as well as ever and we're looking forward to it."

Waiting Patiently is the 5/1 second favourite for Kempton’s Christmas showpiece but ranges in price from 6/1 to 14/1 for the Ryanair. With regard to the latter target, remember connections looked it square in the mouth last season when their horse was thriving and declined, due to concerns about the suitability of the track, his propensity to make novicey errors and (for him) a relatively quick reappearance. In short, they might dodge it again and he might not even be at his best there if they don’t.

As he suggested last week, Harry Whittington plans to step Tingle Creek vanquished Saint Calvados up in trip, with Kempton’s 2m4f Listed Chase (won by Waiting Patiently last season) looking a likely target.

“I was very happy with Saint Calvados’s run in the Tingle Creek at Sandown on Saturday,” he said in his Betdaq blog (#ad). “He ran with plenty of credit considering he’s still only a five-year-old and was beaten by two seasoned two milers with 16 Grade Ones between them.

“It was the first time he had gone right-handed and he did jump out to the left which you’re never going to get away with against the calibre of horse he was up against… You wouldn’t have thought he’d wanted further in his previous races, but the run at Sandown hinted that might be the case and I don’t see any reason why he won’t stay.

“The next logical step is to run him over further which, if things go to plan, gives us a whole host of options going forward. We can always go back down to two miles, but it’s such a strong division and we have to try further based on the way he finished the race on Saturday.”

That makes Saint Calvados a potential Ryanair player although I’d be more interested him for Aintree’s Melling Chase in April.

Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase

Nothing to see here; only yak. One thread of conversation is quite interesting, however. It emerged from a throwaway remark by Nicky Henderson in conversation on Racing TV’s Luck On Sunday that Ascot’s Clarence House Chase next month is being considered as Altior’s preferred stepping-stone to the Champion Chase rather than – gubbed at 1.01 in the next-race market – Newbury’s Game Spirit in February.

This thinking was confirmed a couple of days later in the Racing Post, in which Kempton’s Desert Orchid Chase was also brought into the mix – even though the trainer reported Altior to have been lame the day after the Tingle Creek due to losing a shoe and pricking his foot.

“He had two poultices on but… [two days later] he was 100 per cent sound,” Henderson reported, while simultaneously dismissing and keeping open the King George as an option. "The King George is not a race for non-stayers. It's easy to think it is an easy three miles on a flat track on good ground but they go a gallop all the way – there is no pit-stop.

"I don't want to scratch him right now – I want to keep scratching my head! We have the right to reserve the option to change our mind but I very much doubt it. It is 17 days after quite a hard race even if it looked like he won easily – it's the wrong time to be trying it."

However, Henderson did tantalise by suggesting Kempton’s feature chase could very much be on Altior’s agenda next season, perhaps even via the Betfair Chase.

This term the Ascot route would potentially set up a re-match with Tingle Creek runner-up Un De Sceaux at a track at which the Willie Mullins-trained chaser has traditionally been a more potent force than at Sandown.

To the surprise of nobody, Alan King has blamed the ground for Sceau Royal’s lacklustre display in the Tingle Creek, when he finished last of the four runners.

“He’s been pretty quiet since. We won’t run him on that ground again. He’s only ever won on good-to-soft but you can’t take him out of a four-runner Grade One,” he told At The Races. “We’ll probably leave him now for the spring and come back then.

“Let’s face it, the front two are probably too good for us anyway, but I was disappointed he couldn’t hold on for third. He got very tired from the last. He might go straight to Cheltenham. I wouldn’t mind going there fresh – or there’s Aintree and possibly back at Sandown on the final day of the season, the Celebration Chase."

Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup

Nothing to see here except one item of news… and an ante-post bet. The latter first: due to the intervention of Christmas, both the King George and Savills Chase will have been run before the next edition of the Road is published so a pre-emptive strike is called for.

To listeners of Black Country Radio or close readers of this column, it will come as no surprise that I’ve been sizing up Shattered Love – who’s currently still entered in both of those above races – to shore up a Gigginstown-based position on the 2019 Magners Gold Cup.

She looks like a Gold Cup horse, she runs like a Gold Cup horse, trainer Gordon Elliott keeps talking about her as a Gold Cup horse, so she’s probably a Gold Cup horse. We know from her emphatic JLT success that she handles Cheltenham’s Old Course and she’s proven, if unexposed, at three miles. There is nothing as yet not to like and 25/1 is very attractive.

Trainer Gordon Elliott has confirmed to me that she runs in the Grade One Savills Chase (formerly the Lexus) over Christmas and he anticipates that stepping back up to three miles will very much suit her. “She’s come out of the John Durkan very well and she’s in very good form,” he said.

And finally, the news: 2017 Gold Cup hero Sizing John is set to miss his Christmas engagements according to trainer Jessica Harrington’s Unibet blog (#ad). He had options in Leopardstown Grade Ones over two or three miles as his comeback vehicle since missing last year’s Festival with a hairline fracture of the pelvis.

“I have decided to take Sizing John out of Leopardstown over Christmas because I’ve been unable to get a suitable gallop into him on the grass because of all the previous dry weather we had,” she reported.

“He’s around 15 kilograms heavier than his usual racing weight and if he’d had a run already this season I wouldn’t mind running him. But it will be a tough ask first time out so we will instead give him a little more time and look at bringing him back in something like the Kinloch Brae, which he won in 2017, at Thurles next month.

“Everything is absolutely fine with him, but I took the decision to take him out so I wouldn’t be tempted to run!”

Novice chasers

Let's start at the staying end of this division with the highly likeable Rocky’s Treasure paying a handsome compliment to his Newbury conqueror Santini by winning a Grade Two event at Doncaster in unflappable fashion. Always at the fore, usually alone but briefly upsides a rival, he jumped well, stayed the three-mile trip thoroughly and clocked a very good time.

That RSA ante-post favourite Santini was able to beat a more experienced horse of this calibre on his chase debut confers great credit upon him. As for Rocky’s Treasure himself, he’s shaping like a prime candidate for the NH Chase over four miles at the Festival – even though trainer Kim Bailey's assistant Matt Nicholls was talking RSA Chase in the Doncaster winner’s enclosure.

"That looked a good race and Rocky's Treasure destroyed them,” Nicholls said. “He jumps and he stays, and though he was beaten on soft ground at Newbury, he didn't run badly on it to be second to Santini."

The ground point is worth making because this (to date) peak effort was recorded on his return to the good ground his connections maintain he prefers. However, his second on Newbury’s soft stuff was also a career best at the time. It will need to be a significant factor for any RSA ambitions because he’s got four lengths to find on the RSA ante-post favourite who’s expected to come on for his debut.

Nicholls also mentioned that Rocky’s Treasure might duck Kempton’s Kauto Star – Santini’s next start – because “he didn't seem to go right-handed when he ran at Hereford once”. That was the horse’s Rules debut, mind, albeit he did jump left. I can understand that you might not wish to test the theory in a race that deep.

Back at Newbury, Le Breuil had finished third behind Santini and Rocky’s Treasure in an encouraging first attempt at three miles. Dropped back to 2m4f at Cheltenham last Saturday, he shaped as though a longer trip is indeed what he now requires. Outpaced from some way out, he kept responding to finish an ever-closer second and he, too, might be best suited by the NH Chase if Festival-bound. He did again jump slightly right, however.

The winner he was running down as the line approached was Drovers Lane, a highly progressive novice chaser trained by Rebecca Curtis. Already a dual winner when lining up – and beaten only over fences after making a chance-ending blunder when bang there on his penultimate start at Aintree – this horse was conceding 3lbs and upwards all round.

He largely jumped well here – perhaps not entirely fluent at one or two and certainly stumbling after landing steeply at the third last – and produced his best effort yet over fences, having already left far behind his previous hurdling form.

“We always thought Drovers Lane was a good horse but until you come here and take on some better ones you never really know what you've got,” Curtis said. “He'll have a little break now and we'll definitely be thinking of something at the Festival for him.”

Initial quotes of 40/1 for the JLT can be filed under wilfully prejudiced because on strict form terms this achievement alone – proving an aptitude for the course as well – was at least the equal of what Defi Du Seuil managed at Exeter a couple of weeks ago and that horse is as short as 8/1 in this market. Drovers Lane is now 25/1 which may still prove a tad generous.

With the cheekpieces reapplied, Jenkins played a more convincing role in proceedings even though he surrendered second late to Le Breuil. It’s worth noting that blinkers wrought a marked improvement in this horse over hurdles and the first time they are applied over fences is likely to be significant – perhaps for the Close Brothers Chase, on whose upper admissible rating of 145 he already sits.

Under a patient ride, the outsider of five Dentley De Mee had not long worked his way into contention when making a chance-ending blunder at the fourth-last fence. However, favourite The Russian Doyen was never in any sort of rhythm after walloping the first. This was his first start on a left-handed track since his racecourse debut in a Chepstow bumper but his discombobulating error came too early to say whether this performance was connected to the track orientation.

Nicky Henderson withdrew Jenkins’ stablemate OK Corral – second in last season’s Albert Bartlett – from making his chase debut in that Cheltenham contest because the rain didn’t arrive in time but he was then able to run him at Plumpton two days later over five furlongs further.

Sent off the 2/9 favourite, OK Corral’s task was made easier by main market rival and second-season novice Impulsive Star failing to travel. He was receiving reminding taps from jockey Noel Fehily from an early stage – not atypically as that horse hasn’t taken to fences with any verve, despite his (distant) fourth last term’s NH Chase.

OK Corral jumped well bar for one lapse of concentration at the 12th when rider Barry Geraghty saw a stride and his mount sneaked in an extra one and plunged through the birch. He responded positively to that error with a good jump at the next and swiftly resumed control of proceedings. He adjusted left a shade at his fences – and that reminded me how he’d hung badly left at Aintree on his final start last season behind Santini in the Grade One Sefton Novices’ Hurdle. He looks likely to be most at home on a galloping track.

Henderson admitted he’s “not easy to train” in his Racing Post stable tour but clearly expects better things from him. “His problems have simply been growing pains and the exciting part comes now as he goes chasing,” he said. On finishing runner-up at the Festival, Geraghty had described OK Corral as “a real old-fashioned chaser” who was “always going at his own pace and kept going”. Sounds ideal for the RSA.

Stablemate Chef Des Obeaux was pulled up in the same edition of the Albert Bartlett but prior to that had won three times over hurdles, including his peak performance over three miles in soft ground in a Haydock Grade Two. Started out over 2m4f at Uttoxeter for his chase debut last week, he was badly exposed for want of pace and could only plug on for a 15-length third.

Crucial Role, who had also been pulled up in the Albert Bartlett when trained by Henry Daly (although at 66/1 rather than Chef Des Obeaux’s 6/1), won that beginners’ chase in good style from Now McGinty, who’d previously chased home The Worlds End at Chepstow prior to unseating at an early stage behind Activial two days earlier at Huntingdon.

Now trained by Dan Skelton, Crucial Role had himself finished 33 lengths adrift of Activial on his chasing debut in a competitive affair at Haydock but was reported on that occasion to have bled from the nose. Here, he travelled smoothly and sustained a good jumping rhythm from the outset.

All of the first three would have relished the soft ground and had reached a decent standard of form over staying trips as hurdlers, Now McGinty thriving for the application of cheekpieces (which he retained here) and being perhaps less of a dour type compared with the other two.

So, while there was no disgrace in Chef Des Obeaux being beaten by two such race-fit rivals – Crucial Role might be really quite useful – this first spin over fences did suggest he might be more of a NH Chase type than anything swifter.

Returning to Cheltenham for a connected form-line, The World’s End bounced back in no uncertain terms from his November defeat (albeit best at the weights) behind far more experienced novice chasers, Ibis Du Rheu and the mare Theatre Territory, on the Old Course. Yes, there was an 8lb turnaround at the weights with Ibis Du Rheu last Friday but he was utterly brushed aside in a manner that has nothing to do with weights and measures.

I’d been underwhelmed by The Worlds End of late – perhaps because my expectations had been so high after his novice-hurdling season that culminated in winning the 2017 Sefton – but this performance re-converted me.

He was left in the lead from an early stage on the first circuit due to the departure of Lil Rockerfeller, his closest market rival, but Ibis Du Rheu served it up to him on the second. Yet The Worlds End was entirely comfortable upsides, continuing to measure his fences well, and ultimately outjumped that rival at the fourth last. It was all over after that. Positive tactics clearly suited him, markedly improving his technique over an obstacle and enabling him to utilise his innate stamina.

“We got him going early this year and it's nice to have some decent ground. Hopefully we'll have some in the spring. He was very good today, he's a proper staying horse,” said trainer Tom George, who didn’t believe The Worlds End would need much more experience over fences to be primed for the Festival.

To put this performance into some context, it can be judged of a similar calibre to form established early on in their novice seasons by the likes of Native River and Presenting Percy, albeit the latter’s success in the 2017 Porterstown at Fairyhouse had the copper-bottomed assurance of handicap form.

It’s a score in the clubhouse better than anything thus far achieved by any of the five horses shorter than him in the RSA market – namely, Santini, Delta Work, Next Destination (who is as yet unraced over fences), stablemate Black Op and the unexposed Topofthegame.

Admittedly, others have better Festival records but The Worlds End was making an arresting move when falling two out in the 2017 Albert Bartlett and he wouldn’t have been suited by a crawl in the 2018 Stayers’ Hurdle. He’s clearly a major player and 16/1 is a very reasonable price.

However, I’m going to take a position against him with Topofthegame. Again, this probably won’t come as a surprise to careful readers because I’ve been fond of this horse for some time. Having confirmed via trainer Paul Nicholls that he runs next in the Grade One Kauto Star Chase at Kempton next week, it’s time to take the 16/1 available about him for the RSA Chase.

Admittedly, I don’t think Kempton will suit him ideally but his previous form at the track suggests to me he’ll run well enough to catch the eye. Nicholls is sure that the horse’s timidity caused him to miss the start at Exeter last time, rather than anything more worrying – and, unusually in such matters, I’m inclined to agree.

“It was a blessing in disguise as it happened,” Nicholls said. “Because it meant he didn’t get involved in a hard race. He’s quite a timid horse and I think he panicked when the tapes went back. He can be a little like that. But he’s come out of the race really well – A1, actually.”

You’ll recall that, having lost at least 20 lengths at the start, Topofthegame showed no fear in the race itself, jumping well and managing to finish second to Defi Du Seuil in quite a deep contest despite racing over an inadequate trip.

Stepped back up to three miles, he will surely do better. Even though he’s still a relatively raw horse, he does have Festival experience, having outperformed my expectations when second in last season’s Coral Cup on his final and best start over hurdles. I’m certain this camel-sized chaser can go places.

Stablemate Ibis Du Rheu had been talked about in terms of the NH Chase but this was a sizeable setback to those ambitions. He was been beaten from marks lower than his current rating in (admittedly competitive) handicaps last season and may now be difficult to place on this evidence. Patiently ridden, he simply cracked against a superior rival.

Three-times chase winner and 2017 Stayers’ Hurdle runner-up Lil Rockerfeller hadn’t convinced with his jumping at Cheltenham’s Old Course two starts previously, despite winning, and got no further than the second here. His trajectory was too low and he crashed through the top, unseating Wayne Hutchinson.

Beforehand, trainer Neil King had said his horse needed to win here to be considered a proper candidate for the RSA Chase. Immediately afterwards, not having anticipated such an early departure, he was even considering taking up the horse’s entry in Saturday’s Long Walk Hurdle but in the end did not declare him at the five-day stage. Instead, his stable star is set to contest Friday’s Grade Two Noel Chase at the same Ascot meeting, where he could meet the likes of dual winner Count Meribel, the unbeaten Vinndication and self-powered Bangor victor Jerrysback.

It might be that Lil Rockerfeller doesn’t enjoy being taken on for the lead over fences and that frailty, translating to a lack of conviction and exacerbated by an unconvincing technique, amounts to a major concern in my mind. I’d run him back on the Flat, personally.

At the other end of the stamina spectrum, the once highly touted Campeador got off the mark at the second attempt over fences for OK Corral’s owner JP McManus at Fairyhouse last Saturday. Having been patiently ridden, he made smooth headway to the heels of the leaders by halfway and then eased to the front on the bridle approaching the last. Runner-up Roaring Bull couldn’t get him out of cruise control.

The force is strong among the green-and-gold hoops in this division but Campeador might currently be at or near the fore of McManus’s Arkle candidates, with Defi Du Seuil shaping as though the JLT might be the more suitable target, Jerrysback sitting 1lb under the 145 ceiling for the Close Brother Novices’ Handicap Chase and Le Richebourg entered over a variety of trips next week.

It’s possible that a change of jockey did Campeador some good because it would be entirely understandable had Barry Geraghty started to lose some belief in the horse. He’d been on board for three of the grey’s four career falls, including most notably when holding every chance in the 2016 Fred Winter (alongside Voix Du Reve, who also fell independently) and when outclassed behind Faugheen two seasons later in the Morgiana Hurdle. The partnership also hit the deck on chase debut at Navan last month.

Keith Donoghue, best known this side of the Irish Sea for his Glenfarclas Cross-Country Chase win on Tiger Roll at last term’s Festival, was on board Campeador on this occasion and reported no problems. “Campeador was always well able to jump, just for different reasons he was making mistakes,” he said. “He was the best horse in the race today and that made it much easier for him.”

That final comment, implying a less-than-robust spirit for deeper waters, is unnerving about a horse with a 50 per cent completion rate in Ireland.

Novice hurdlers

Colin Tizzard is convinced that his dual Cheltenham winner and reformed tearaway Elixir De Nutz is a two-miler and has plans to work backwards from the Supreme. However, rider Harry Cobden is not so sure and advised the trainer to enter this grey in all three novice hurdles for which he’s eligible, meaning a distance range of two to three miles.

I’m with Cobden on this. Twice he’s controlled a steadily run race from the front on this horse: last Friday, the differences were that he had the full complement of eight hurdles to negotiate and faced a field less competitive than the Grade Two he had won previously. That said, he did have to wield a 10lb penalty as a result.

“I think looking at Elixir Du Nutz he can go as fast as you like over two miles and he'll get that trip wherever you go. He jumps so well, you can use him jumping in front and you're not getting held back by the other horses. I think one more run and then he'll come to Cheltenham, for the Supreme,” said Tizzard.

I’d like to see Elixir Du Nutz measured against better horses to get a firmer gauge of his assets and hopefully we’ll get that chance in his one remaining Festival prep. We might have learned more had Nicky Henderson unleashed the much-vaunted Irish Point winner Angels Breath in this contest but he deemed the good ground too quick and instead may run him at Ascot this Friday.

If he does line up in that Skybet Supreme Trial Novices’ Hurdle – better known to you and me as the Kennel Gate – he could face the likes of three-time winner Grand Sancy, stablemate Danny Kirwan, Thistle Do Nicely, Encore Champs and recent course-and-distance runner-up Thomas Darby but not the winner of that race, Didtheyleaveuoutto. Trainer Nick Gifford has opted to miss Ascot due to a precautionary scope that was “not as clean as I wanted”.

“It should clear up quite quickly – it just wasn’t clean enough for a Grade Two. I wouldn’t usually scope mine that often but because it was a graded race, I did and I’m glad I did because I’d have run him and he wouldn’t have quite been at 100 per cent,” Gifford said.

Didtheyleaveuoutto will now be entered at Kempton over Christmas, in a race won in the past by subsequent Supreme winners such as Altior and Menorah, provided the ground is no more testing than the projected good-to-soft.

Back at Cheltenham in a much more truly run affair, keen-travelling Al Dancer clocked a superior time to Elixir De Nutz over the same course and distance when winning the subsequent handicap hurdle by eleven lengths. Indeed, winning rider Sam Twiston-Davies admitted father Nigel was complaining he’d won by too far on greeting him in the winner’s enclosure, with the plan being an assault on Newbury’s valuable Betfair Hurdle in February.

It’s a race Team Twiston-Davies has won twice before with a novice: Splash of Ginge in 2014 and Ballyandy two years ago, both of whom went on to contest the Supreme at the Cheltenham Festival. The former could manage only 15th behind Vautour; the latter finished fourth behind Labaik. You can expect the same course with Al Dancer.

However, Twister senior may feel he had a point because BHA handicapper David Dickinson now rates this horse at 141 whereas Ballyandy lined up at Newbury rated 135 and Splash Of Ginge (replete with then 7lb claimer Ryan Hatch on board) was on 134. It will be interesting to see whether Nigel books one of his thriving band of conditionals to take some weight off.

Tizzard was back in the Cheltenham winner’s enclosure with another novice the following day, this time of the staying variety. It’s taken Rockpoint – a half-brother to Santini, no less – a while to find his way over hurdles but a step up in distance brought about immediate improvement at Newbury and a positive ride at that trip here provoked a further career best.

His jumping was impressive – especially given he had company on either side for much of the contest from Rocco and Supremely Lucky, who ultimately finished third and fourth – and he stayed on powerfully up the final hill to beat Lisnagar Oscar by just under three lengths.

“We saw something when he ran in that handicap over three miles at Newbury last time,” said Tizzard. “He looked more at ease with himself and today he won like a proper horse. You wouldn't know where he'll stop now but I've no doubt he'll come back here for the Albert Bartlett in March with a couple of runs beforehand.”

As a second-season hurdler with 11 career starts under his belt, Rockpoint boasts the ideal grizzled profile for the Albert Bartlett – and Tizzard should know; he won it with just such a type in Kilbricken Storm last season. Indeed, that horse also won this race en route – as did past winners At Fishers Cross, Nenuphar Collonges and Black Jack Ketchum.

This context plus Tizzard’s affirmation of his target made immediate post-race offers of 33/1 just plain wrong. Rockpoint is now 20/1 and shorter, near or at the fore of a wide-open market. I wouldn’t put you off even now.

Lisnagar Oscar is a three-race maiden under Rules but is improving apace and will soon find a race he can win; I doubt he’ll garner sufficient experience in time for the Potato Race, however. Supremely Lucky didn’t quite seem to see the trip out, having turned for home alongside the winner, and the fact he’s still improving might slip under the radar.

There was good and bad to Doux Pretender’s performance – he probably wasn’t best positioned in a race dominated from the front but he also didn’t jump that well. He needs more experience.

Last term’s Ballymore seventh Aye Aye Charlie was sent off favourite here after finally getting across the line in front in first-time cheekpieces at the eighth attempt at odds of 1/12 at Kelso last time out. He checked out pretty tamely here.

In stark contrast, I’m starting to develop a strong liking for Easy Game, who has grafted his way into consideration for Willie Mullins’ Cheltenham Festival squad by winning four of his six hurdle starts to date, the latest of them a Navan Grade Two last Sunday.

It wasn’t a well-run event, meaning the entire nine-strong field was still in contention as they turned for home and there wasn’t much room to manoeuvre at two of the three remaining obstacles. Obviously, Ruby Walsh had gone the shortest way on Easy Game and was shadowing old rival Magnium’s pushy route up the inside of leader Western Victory approaching the third last.

That mare again jumped left, leaving Magnium no room on landing and perhaps ending what chance he might have had with a forced error. His chances of recovery were further compromised when, quick as a flash and with no other option available to him hard on the inside, Walsh nipped left around him and back onto the course proper in front of him.

It’s to the immense credit of Easy Game that he was well-balanced enough to jump the next hurdle well, not only in light of those traffic problems but also because he had to fight for space to land with eventual third Defi Bleu hanging left and squeezing up Rhinestone and onto him. Walsh wasn’t going to hang about for any further events and urged Easy Game between rivals to lead at the last and then galvanised him to deal with the final challenge from stablemate Getareason.

For the reasons given, this was a much better performance than the bare figures will suggest.

“It looked like Ruby had to go through all the houses on the inside to get there and that just shows you how brave the horse is,” Mullins said afterwards. “He has come under the radar and he keeps on surprising me. I didn't think he would be this successful, to be perfectly honest with you. I suppose that puts him in our Cheltenham picture now and we will give him an entry in the Grade 1 at Naas now.”

This wasn’t exactly a ringing endorsement – more an expression of grudging respect – and that feeds the theory that the Closutton yard has yet to deploy its full novice-hurdling firepower. But four-year-old Easy Game is getting better and an attitude like that will carry him a long way. It is worth noting that the two-years-older Quick Grabim beat him by ten lengths off level weights in a Grade Three at Tipperary in October, however.

Earlier on the same card, Battleoverdoyen dominated a big-field maiden contest, as the market expected him to do. He was starting to pull readily clear when jumping right at the third last – an adjustment he made at other obstacles, to a lesser degree, also – and ultimately finished 15 lengths clear of Momus, who appeared less scopey than his Gigginstown fellow on TV pictures. It was the quickest comparative time of the day by some margin.

The winner is unbeaten, having previously won a Point and then a bumper on his debut for Gordon Elliott, and vastly progressive. “He has improved a lot for his first run in a bumper,” observed Elliott. “I would say he will have no problem stepping up in trip and we might go for the Lawlors Of Naas Novice Hurdle in early January.”

At Fairyhouse the previous day, experienced bumper horse Dunvegan had already mastered his field when his closest pursuer, School Boy Hours, stepped at the final flight and took a nasty-looking fall that brought down favourite Column Of Fire. This was his second hurdle start but his first since taking a long break and he now merits stepping up in grade.

School Boy Hours had been flashing his tail resentfully when under pressure in the unequal battle with the winner. Column Of Fire was reportedly down for some time after his unfortunate experience; he would probably have inherited a distant second had he been able to negotiate his prone rival. Let’s hope both horses emerge from this race with mind and body unaffected.

Grade Two Aintree Bumper-winning mare Getaway Katie Mai got off the mark at her second attempt over hurdles in a first-time hood. She had already encountered some smart mares in her short career to date, having been beaten 14 lengths by Posh Trish in a Point and by subsequent Festival winner Relegate in a Leopardstown bumper last February.

On her hurdles debut at Galway, when front-running Western Victory (ultimately well held behind Easy Game in the race mentioned earlier) got the better of her, Getaway Katie Mai had shaped as though she would benefit from a step up in trip so whipping round tight Tramore last Thursday probably wasn’t her bag. As trainer John Queally observed, “she made hard work of it”.

Juvenile hurdlers

Recent Cheltenham winner Quel Destin had to work hard to quell Elysees in the Grade Two Summit Juvenile Hurdle at Doncaster last Saturday but he showed a good attitude to get past the runner-up, who carried him left across the track and was in receipt of 5lbs.

The greater stamina test provided by the Triumph will suit the winner better than did that relative speed test and Megan Nicholls, who was representing her father Paul, also suggested more cut in the ground would help.

Elysees ended up as a 78-rated stayer on the Flat, having operated at up two miles under that code. Although his form had plateaued, he still left an impression of untapped potential. Positive tactics here brought about further improvement on his previous hurdle successes at Warwick and Ludlow.

Back in third, Oi The Clubb Oi’s was getting squeezed out on both sides when trying to knuckle down on the approach to the last. Having switched round to the right, he rallied gamely but had nothing further to give near the line. More lightly raced than Elysees on the Flat – his best form at 10 furlongs and rated 68 – he is improving steadily over hurdles in his own right.

On their Old Course encounter in November, King’s other runner Cracker Factory was deemed Quel Destin’s main threat but he was already being niggled when flattening the third last and instantly done with. That was already his seventh start over hurdles so perhaps he’s just in need of a break.

In difficult weather on the same day at Cheltenham, greater racing experience and proven stamina from the Flat surely helped Nelson River get the better of more touted rivals in the opening JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial. Another contributing factor was the sense that Fanfan De Seuil, who emerges as the best horse at the weights, pulled himself up when hitting the front.

Perhaps a hearty pace in the conditions and a strong crosswind were also partly to blame but I suspect jockey Paddy Brennan will be planning to deliver this raw juvenile even later in the piece in future. He’d travelled into the race nicely behind the overly free front-runner Katpoli – who also needs to brush up on his jumping – and didn’t hit the front until after the last. But he then hung fire, enabling the winner to make up a three-length deficit from the final flight.

Nelson River is still available at 40/1 for the Triumph, a comment on what may have been an inferior edition of this race but also partly an unwise lack of appreciation for the manifest skills of trainer Tony Carroll, who gets the best out of most horses, be they five-furlong sprinters or four-mile chasers.

“Nelson River is a nice horse who stays well. He hasn't had a lot of racing and he's still learning. He's talented and has a bright future,” Carroll said, of a horse rated 71 at the still-improving end to his season on the Flat. He’d previously beaten a similarly unexposed type, the Alan King-trained Nebuchadnezzar, at Bangor.

He poses a typical problem in Festival terms: probably not good enough for the Triumph over 2m1f of the New Course and probably not quick enough for the more suitable grade of the Fred Winter Handicap over two miles on the Old Course.

Fanfan De Seuil might be better suited by waiting for Aintree but Katpoli – previously fourth behind Quel Destin and Cracker Factory at Cheltenham, in receipt of weight from both – could, with a bit of polish, be well suited by the Festival’s juvenile handicap. He’d previously beaten Oi The Clubb Oi’s by six lengths at Huntingdon on his debut for Dr Richard Newland’s yard.

To complete these interwoven form-lines for now, Oi The Clubb Oi’s went on to run the Nicky Henderson-trained Style De Vole to a head at Newcastle and that horse returned at Newbury pm Wednesday, only to be quite comfortably mastered by the King-trained Our Power. Both horses were carrying a penalty for their previous success, Our Power having previously won at Market Rasen but beaten in between by – yup, you have indeed heard of him before – Fanfan Du Seuil at Exeter.

Cheltenham Festival selections:

Recommended 28/11/18: Balko Des Flos e/w 40/1 [Skybet/Bet365] Gold Cup

Recommended 29/11/18: Summerville Boy e/w 12/1 [General] Champion Hurdle

Back now: Shattered Love e/w at 33/1 [Sky Bet EXCLUSIVE Price Boost] Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup

Back now: Topofthegame e/w at 16/1 [General] RSA Chase

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