Lydia Hislop's Pinsticker's Guide to the 2019 Randox Health Grand National at Aintree

Last week, one MP compared the next Conservative leadership race to the 1967 Grand National famously won by Foinavon, the 100/1 shot who was able carefully to pick his way through the pile-up at the 23rd fence because he'd been tailed off at the time.

The latest edition invites burgeoning talents to exhibit the full range of their ability in a competitive and compelling race for a career pinnacle, in view of a breathless worldwide audience. And I suppose someone has got to succeed Theresa May as well.

So, here's a topically themed pinsticker's guide to the 2019 Randox Health Grand National. I'll leave you to surmise what the main problem was when devising the rating system...

Rating system:

Boris Johnson: Spaffing your money

Chris Grayling: Gets every fence wrong but somehow still standing

Jacob Rees-Mogg: Unaccountably popular well-bred sort, prone to jumping right

Jeremy Hunt: Superficially plausible, invariably plodding on mid-division type

Michael Gove: Good connections, likely to snake his way to the latter stages

Sajid Javid: Power stance, in the frame by process of elimination

ANIBALE FLY

Hampered at the first but recovered to stay on for fourth last year. As then, arrives here after a career-best performance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Well-treated on the form of that rallying second. More versatile ground-wise than is often given credit. Solid contender.

• Gove

VALTOR

Highly experienced formerly French-trained chaser. Impressed when winning on his UK debut for this yard at Ascot but out of his depth, hanging and jumping right at Cheltenham last time. Unexposed as a stayer. Course debutant. If only Aintree didn't require you to go left-handed...

• Rees-Mogg

TIGER ROLL

Last year's hero and a four-time Cheltenham Festival winner, in various disciplines. Better than ever this year. Capable of moving owner Michael O'Leary to tears so shouldn't be underestimated in his quest to be the first horse since Red Rum in 1974 to retain the crown. Lot of weight for a small horse to shoulder. Price far too short.

• Gove

OUTLANDER

Entered at Goffs Aintree Sales this week. Three-time Grade One winner in his pomp, invariably seen at his best at Leopardstown. Well below that standard this season. Handicap mark perhaps anachronistic. Course debutant but sound jumper and likely to stay to a point.

• Hunt

DON POLI

Entered at Goffs Aintree Sales this week. Three-times Grade One winner, including the 2015 Festival's RSA Chase and then-Lexus. Pulled up on his return from almost two years' absence over a shorter course of these fences in December. Shown little in two start since. Likely to get too far behind early on. Cheekpieces reapplied to counter that.

• Hunt

GO CONQUER

Trailed around a short course of these fences in the 2017 Topham. Hitherto favoured by right-handed tracks until a best-yet effort when winning Doncaster's Sky Bet Chase last time. Reapplied tongue-tie retained. Formerly with Jonjo O’Neill but improved a touch by Nigel Twiston-Davies. Occasionally mars his jumping with a blunder.

• Rees-Mogg

MALA BEACH

Lightly raced and bit below his best this season. Stays further than three miles but pulled up in the 2016 Irish Grand National on his only attempt at marathon trips. Course debutant. Jumping can lack fluency. Others better treated. Much rain required to play to his strengths.

• Hunt

MINELLA ROCCO

Formerly a high-class chaser, including when second in the 2017 Gold Cup, but always prone to a chance-ending error. Functions best on a sound surface, so missed last year's muddy edition. Course debutant. A shadow of his former self this season, soon toiling last time.

• Grayling

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LAKEVIEW LAD

Progressive staying chaser, finishing third in the Cheltenham Festival's Ultima Chase last time. Promises to improve further for a step up in trip. Functions well over a flat track. Course debutant. Jumps soundly. This likeable grey is a leading contender.

• Javid

PLEASANT COMPANY

At his best here. Went well until late stumble in 2017. Travelled and jumped energetically last year - without his usual hood - when runner-up to Tiger Roll, making a crucial second-last error but rallying gamely from the Elbow to lead a stride past the line. Recent form uninspiring but same was true in 2018. Targeted for this.

• Gove

BALLYOPTIC

Consistent performer last season, culminating in a nose second to Joe Farrell in the Scottish Grand National. Has looked out of sorts this season: tardy to start and ultimately falling in the Becher, well held in sixth in the Welsh Grand National and pulled up at Haydock last time. Jumping can be an issue. Needs to bounce back.

• Grayling

DOUNIKOS

Form unravelled as a novice chaser when latterly highly tried last season, including when pulled up in the Irish Grand National. Back to form last time over a staying trip at Punchestown, shaping as though capable of better. Fell on his penultimate start but usually jumps soundly. Said to require a sound surface.

• Gove

RATHVINDEN

Jumping took a long time to warm up prior to winning last season’s NH Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Smooth success to win sole start this season but in a small-field edition of the Bobbyjo Chase. Course debut will test whether his errors truly are a thing of the past. Perfectly feasible handicap mark.

• Grayling

ONE FOR ARTHUR

Bids to become the first horse since Red Rum in 1977 to regain the National crown, having won this in 2017 but missing last year with a tendon injury. Unseated his rider on both starts this season, labouredly jumping left from an early stage last time. Trainer Lucinda Russell says she’s resolved that physical issue. You’d be trusting ageing form.

• Hunt

ROCK THE KASBAH

First-time cheekpieces sparked some improvement when a well-held second to Step Back in last year’s bet365 Gold Cup. Even better effort when winning at Cheltenham in November but a not-atypical lack of fluency knocked him back last time. First spin over these fences. Suspicion obstacles and extreme stamina test might expose flaws.

• Hunt

WARRIORS TALE

Hampered at the Chair and ultimately pulled up before the second last in the 2018 National. Won over a short course of these fences in December. Otherwise well below form this season. Stamina for task doesn’t convince.

• Bo-Jo

REGAL ENCORE

Unexpectedly entertained the National fences when eighth two years ago, albeit never truly getting his hands dirty. Missed last year due to unsatisfactory blood analysis. Capable of smart form but only ever on his terms. Ran well enough last time at Ascot. No surprise if only paying lip service on this return visit.

• Grayling

MAGIC OF LIGHT

Greatly improved this season, over hurdles and fences, although primarily in shallower mares-only events. Has looked in need of a greater test of stamina in more competitive races the last twice, both prior to falling at Punchestown and when plugging on at the Festival. Usually a sound jumper. Course debutant. Underestimated.

• Javid

A TOI PHIL

A bit below his best over fences this season, albeit a creditable fifth over hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival last time. Feasibly handicapped on last term’s form. Sound jumping is a major asset but his stamina for this marathon trip is questionable.

• Bo-Jo

JURY DUTY

Already a Grand National winner in name only, having travelled to America and won Far Hills’ valuable hurdles event of the same name last October. A consistent novice chaser in good company last term, he returned to action last month with a career best. Utterly unexposed as a staying chaser. Usually a sound jumper. Major contender.

• Javid

NOBLE ENDEAVOR

Quirky staying chaser. Well treated on his improved form of two seasons ago, including when a plugging-on sixth in the Irish Grand National. Jumped a short course of these fences too carefully to get involved last December, admittedly on his first start for almost two years. Shaped far better than bare form at Cheltenham last time. Reapplied cheekpieces retained. More required.

• Hunt

MONBEG NOTORIOUS

A decent novice chaser last season. Steadily back towards peak form this season. Stamina for this task in some doubt, however, having twice tailed off over marathon trips including when last of eight finishers in last year’s Irish Grand National. Course debutant. Would have preferred a headgear switch.

• Bo-Jo

RAMSES DE TEILLEE

Improved again this season. Second in marathon contests at Haydock last time and previously in the Welsh National, despite a significant blunder at the fourth last. Usually a sound jumper and capable of retaining a prominent position here. More versatile ground-wise than had been thought, although rain a positive. Major contender.

• Javid

TEA FOR TWO

Dual Grade One-winning chaser under Lizzie Kelly in his prime, including here two seasons ago. Markedly below his best this season. Never travelled when eased in grade over a marathon trip at Taunton. Stumbled and unseated, having made progress to mid-division, in Cheltenham’s cross-country event last time. Renaissance needed.

• Hunt

MALL DINI

Talented but still without a win in three seasons over fences, albeit he won over hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival back in 2016. Reliable jumper and often travels strongly. Unproven over marathon trips but likely to stay. First-time blinkers conjured a career-best when second in the 2018 Kim Muir but no headgear now. Potential place player.

• Gove

STEP BACK

Lightly raced and unexposed under Rules. Emphatic winner of the Bet365 Gold Cup. No doubting his stamina. Represents the shrewd Bradstock team, who achieve greatly with a small operation. However, has jumped right twice at Chepstow and also in Warwick’s Classic Chase last time. Course debut. Left-handed orientation unlikely to suit.

• Rees-Mogg

ULTRAGOLD

Dual winner over a short course of these fences in the last two Topham Chases and feasibly handicapped. Versatile ground-wise. Creditable third in the 3m2f Becher last December, sticking on at the one pace, but stamina stretched over further at Warwick. Pulled up in Cheltenham’s cross-country event last time.

• Hunt

BLOW BY BLOW

Won over hurdles at last season’s Cheltenham Festival. Handicap mark viable only on that latent ability. Has not taken well to fences this term. Pulled up on two of his latest three starts, including in the Leinster National last time, and otherwise badly out of sorts. Headgear, old and new, hasn’t helped. Perhaps surgery to correct his breathing will. Makes mistakes. Course debutant.

• Bo-Jo

UP FOR REVIEW

Not atypically below his best at Cheltenham last time, so respectable effort therefore. Shaped promisingly when hunted round in third behind more prominently ridden rivals in the Thyestes prior to that. Unexposed as a staying chaser. Plenty of stamina in his pedigree. Course debutant. Small suspicion he might be better going right-handed.

• Rees-Mogg

SINGLEFARMPAYMENT

Frustrating staying chaser, who travels strongly and performs consistently but usually contrives to find at least one rival ahead of him at the line. Rare below-par effort last time at Cheltenham, where he has a good record. Untried at marathon trips but likely to stay. Course debutant. Highly strung so preliminaries could be an issue, too.

• Gove

VIEUX LION ROUGE

Completed all starts over these fences. Contested the last three Grand Nationals, faring best when sixth in 2017. Better record in the shorter-course Becher, winning in 2016 and finishing second, with a first-time tongue-tie applied, in 2018. Pulled up in competitive marathon events the last twice. Unlikely to improve on his record this time.

• Hunt

VALSEUR LIDO

Former three-times Grade One winner. Reliable jumper. Ran far better than his distant eighth in last year’s National suggests, up there pitching until his stamina ran out from the home turn. In lesser shape this season, despite cheekpieces being applied, so handicap mark appears a touch out-of-date. Staying remains an issue, too.

• Hunt

VINTAGE CLOUDS

Third in last year’s Scottish Grand National. Improved again this season, including a rallying second in the Cheltenham Festival’s Ultima Chase last time following surgery to correct his breathing. Made mistakes in his earlier days but more reliable now. Course debutant. Likes a flat track. Versatile ground-wise. Another leading chance for National-loving owner Trevor Hemmings.

• Javid

GENERAL PRINCIPLE

Blossomed recently over marathon trips, winning with his final stride in a messy finish to last year’s Irish Grand National. Bettered that form when stepped back up in trip at Punchestown two starts ago. Lost all chance with a shuddering blunder at Cheltenham last time. First spin over these fences. Claims if his jumping holds up.

• Gove

LIVELOVELAUGH

Best of his form coalesces at around 2m4f. Although he’s one-paced at that trip, his stamina for this task is also highly suspect. Unable to get truly involved over 3m2f at the Cheltenham Festival last time. Sound jumper. Course debutant. Hard to fancy.

• Bo-Jo

WALK IN THE MILL

Scraped into last year’s National via the reserve system, only to fall lame that morning. Won December’s Becher Chase over a shorter course of these fences – his first encounter with this course. Since marked time with two starts over hurdles. Feasibly handicapped. Unexposed at marathon trips and promises to stay. Key contender.

• Javid

FOLSOM BLUE

Veteran staying chaser getting his first crack at the National fences. At his best over marathon trips when testing ground places an extra accent on stamina. Disappointing when a never-involved last of six finishers in the Midlands Grand National on heavy going last time out. Prone to losing his position and that’s hard to recover here.

• Hunt

CAPTAIN REDBEARD

Not at his best on any of his three attempts at this course, even managing to decant his jockey at the smallest Foinavon fence last year. Otherwise a consistent chaser, if mostly a shade short of his very best this season. Difficult to construct a compelling argument.

• Hunt

BLESS THE WINGS

At the age of 14, the father of this National. A sprightly third in last year’s edition, despite unpromising preceding form. Similar comments apply this year, given he soon lost his position in the Cheltenham Festival’s cross-country event last time out. On the same mark as 2018, so this likeable stalwart is unlikely to better himself.

• Hunt

JOE FARRELL

Narrow winner of last year’s Scottish Grand National on his first attempt at a marathon trip. Produced improved form when second at Newbury last time. Course debutant but likely to be well suited by it. Unexposed as a staying chaser and major player now that he’s rightfully made the cut. Plenty in his favour.

• Javid

1st reserve: JUST A PAR

Formerly capable staying chaser for Paul Nicholls, having both won the 2015 Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown and finished second in it the following year. Also twice distantly completed the National, in 2016 and 2017. Muted return for new yard after more than 18 months off when well held in December’s Becher Chase. Needs a resurgence.

• Bo-Jo

2nd reserve: THE YOUNG MASTER

Won the 2016 Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown but has fallen on two of his three outings over these fences. Faded in the 2017 Becher on his only other attempt. Has staged a revival this season, culminating in a creditable third in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival last time out. Still hard to build a convincing case, however.

• Grayling

3rd reserve: BAIE DES ISLES

Distantly completed last year’s National, hampered late on after limited headway from the rear half. Arrives in lesser form this season, having failed to complete of two of her last three starts: falling at Down Royal and pulling up in the Welsh Grand National. First-time blinkers aided a mini-revival two starts ago. Might prefer racing right-handed.

• Rees-Mogg

4th reserve: EXITAS

Career-best efforts on the National’s sister course, the Mildmay, and at Warwick last autumn. Weakened over an extended trip at Sandown next time, admittedly having pecked badly at the fifth last. Distinctly off the boil since, including when pulled up at Ascot last Sunday following a small setback prior to his previous intended start. Makes debut over the National fences.

• Bo-Jo

The shape of our future:

1. Jury Duty

2. Lake View Lad

3. Joe Farrell

4. Ramses De Teillee

5. Magic Of Light

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