1pt win Lady Bowthorpe in 3.00 Newmarket at 13/2 (Bet365)
1pt e.w Statement in 3.40 Newmarket at 9/1 (General - 1/5 1,2,3,4)
SUNDAY'S Qipco 1000 Guineas possibly lacks the overall quality of Saturday's colts classic and it may be worth taking a chance on STATEMENT turning the tables on her narrow Dubai Duty Free (Fred Darling) Stakes conqueror Alcohol Free.
Whereas the latter is not certain to get a mile, the selection looks a guaranteed stayer not just on the way she finished off at Newbury over seven furlongs but also on pedigree being by Lawman out of a mare who was listed placed at a mile and a half.
Indeed, it could be that Statement will develop into more of an Oaks filly but she appears to have improved since last season and, at double figure odds, can prove a solid each-way suggestion in the hands of William Buick.
Alcohol Free, winner of the Cheveley Park Stakes over six furlongs here last autumn, has much less staying power in her pedigree but it could be helpful to her rider Oisin Murphy that she is just one filly away from the stands rail (even though the stalls are positioned centre course) should she hang left as looked to be the case at Newbury.
Both Sacred and Saffron Beach, the Nell Gwyn Stakes first and second, are also well in the mix with the latter in particular threatening to improve for another furlong, but the outcome of this otherwise open looking race could hinge on the much vaunted talents of Aidan O'Brien's beautifully-bred Santa Barbara, a half sister to the Matron Stakes and Breeders Cup winner Iridessa and last year's 40-1 Breeders Cup Mile hero Order Of Australia.
In recent weeks, the Ballydoyle hype machine has been in overdrive and Santa Barbara was certainly impressive when winning a (modest) maiden at The Curragh last September when she made up ground very quickly from midfield before pulling clear impressively despite looking very green.
Inexperience, as O'Brien has admitted, could be an issue here, especially on the undulating Rowley Mile, but she may be the best long-term prospect in the field.
In contrast, her battle-hardened stable companion Mother Earth ran eight times as a two-year-old and improved at the back-end finishing third over this course and distance in the Fillies Mile before chasing home the smart Aunt Pearl in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Keeneland.
Despite having Frankie Dettori in the saddle, she looks the second string on jockey bookings with Ryan Moore taking the mount on Santa Barbara.
Earlier, LADY BOWTHORPE is fancied to take another step forward in the Group Two Betfair Dahlia Stakes.
The William Jarvis-trained daughter of Nathaniel went from winning a handicap at Lingfield off 81 last June to being rated 108 at the end of the campaign when she appeared to run very respectably behind Nazeef in the Group One Sun Chariot Stakes on this course (1m).
Visually, Lady Bowthorpe was most impressive when bolting up in a Group Three at Ascot by nearly five lengths and she has the scope to improve a bit more with an extra furlong here unlikely to be beyond her.
Published at 1730 BST on 01/05/2021
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