Kentucky Derby recommended bet
Back Rock Your World at 11/2 (bet365)
In terms of both traditional form ratings, in which Timeform specialises, and speed figures, the metric used by Americans as their primary source of assessing racehorses, this year’s renewal of the Kentucky Derby has to go down as a sub-standard affair.
None of the 20 runners scheduled to go to post has yet run to a Timeform rating of higher than 122, the five-year average for winners of the race being in the 126 region.
That’s not to say that one of Saturday’s runners won’t improve to the point of hitting that five-year average. Indeed, it would be quite surprising were the winner of the race not to step forward to a certain extent – we are dealing with largely quite lightly raced three-year-olds after all, though it seems unlikely the field will contain a superstar.
Godolphin’s Essential Quality has done little wrong on the road to Louisville, being unbeaten in five starts. A winner of a maiden at this track on debut in September, Brad Cox’s colt improved rapidly to take Grade 1s on his next two starts, the Breeders’ Futurity and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, both at Keeneland.
That Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win was earned in workmanlike rather than impressive fashion, something that has become a bit of a trademark for Essential Quality, who doesn’t lack anything in tenacity. His first start this year came at Oaklawn, where he comfortably took care of Grade 3 opposition, before being pushed all the way by Chad Brown’s Highly Motivated in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland last time. That win came by just a head but once again showcased Essential Quality’s fighting spirit.
Highly Motivated himself will have strong claims in the Derby if reproducing the same level of form that saw him push Essential Quality close last time. He set a pressured pace that day and didn’t lie down once headed, traits that should hold him in good stead in what can be a rough race. An impressive winner of a minor stakes contest at Belmont on his final juvenile start, Highly Motivated was a little disappointing when only third on his reappearance in Grade 3 company at Aqueduct in April but put that well behind him with his good run against Essential Quality last time.
Todd Pletcher has won the race twice before and fields four runners in an effort to claim the ‘Run for The Roses’ for a third time. Of the four, Known Agenda appears to have by far the strongest claims. A bit of a slow burner, it looked as though he wouldn’t be making it to Churchill Downs at all following a lacklustre comeback run when only fifth in Grade 3 company at Tampa Bay in February.
However, he put that run well behind him when dropped back in grade next time, slamming an optional claiming field at Gulfstream by 11 lengths. That prompted a tilt at the Florida Derby at the same course, where Known Agenda improved again to run out a near-three-length winner of a race that is often a key trial for the big one. It would be folly to rule out a further step forward for this son of Curlin, though his draw right down on the inside could make things tricky.
Hot Rod Charlie enters as one of the most exposed in the field, having already run seven times. Off the mark at the fourth attempt as a juvenile, Doug O’Neill’s charge improved markedly when pushing Essential Quality close in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, eventually succumbing by less than a length. He didn’t need to match that form on his latest run when making all to win the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. He’ll need more if he’s to win here, but we already know from the Breeders’ Cup run last year that he can rise to the big occasion.
From one of the most exposed in the field to one of the least. ROCK YOUR WORLD has started just three times – and only once on dirt – but is undefeated and clearly has some of the biggest potential upside in the line-up. A winner of his first two starts on turf at Santa Anita early this year, John Sadler’s charge has come a long way in a very short space of time and was most impressive when switched to dirt for the first time in the Santa Anita Derby on his most recent outing.
Showing good early speed to take the lead, he was pressured throughout, yet still managed to draw away and win by over four lengths from Medina Spirit. The early pace that Rock Your World demonstrated there could well come in handy as he attempts to negotiate a decent trip from stall 15. Umberto Rispoli has been on board for Rock Your World’s last two wins, but he is now reunited with Joel Rosario, who guided him to victory on debut. No disrespect to Rispoli, who is a fine rider, but there have been few jockeys riding better than Rosario in the US over the last year or so, and that could well be a big advantage for Rock Your World.
Of the others, the likes of Dynamic One, Mandaloun, the aforementioned Medina Spirit and Super Stock all have each-way chances in a race that can be fiercely run, though it would be something of a surprise were they to prove quite good enough.
At the prices, the one that appeals most is Rock Your World, who is still open to any amount of improvement and has already run the fastest speed figure in the field.
He also comes out joint top with Essential Quality on Timeform ratings, though with just the three starts under his belt, looks open to more progression than the clear market leader.
Published at 1520 BST on 29/04/21
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
