Timeform US racing guru Jake Price provides his guide to the first leg of the Triple Crown - Saturday's Kentucky Derby.
US Racing tips: Saturday May 7
1pt win Epicenter in Kentucky Derby at 4/1 (Unibet, Betfred)
Who are the leading contenders?
The 148th Kentucky Derby looks a wide-open renewal in which a case can be made for a number of the runners. Either way, what happens this Saturday on the track, let’s hope it stays there rather than the on-going saga concerning Bob Baffert and the ill-fated Medina Spirit, who was first past the post twelve months ago.
Without further ado, let’s look at some of leading contenders in “The Run For The Roses”.
Taiba, who runs in the same colours as Medina Spirit, could hardly have made a better start to his career. Winner of a 6f maiden special weight by 7½ lengths at Santa Anita on debut in March before stretching out in distance to land the Santa Anita Derby by 2¼ lengths from Messier, the pair having switched barns from Bob Baffert to Tim Yakteen beforehand. The speed figures back up both those efforts, but this will be a big test of his maturity, not just in the race but as to how he handles the preliminaries, too. Leonatus, who won the 1883 Derby, is the only horse to have won the race on just his third start.
Never out of the first two, the aforementioned Messier was a 15 lengths winner of the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita in February before being run down late on in the Santa Anita Derby by his stable companion. He has form in the book that entitles him to be on the premises.
Can Asmussen break his duck?
Steve Asmussen may have broken the record for the winning-most North American trainer last year, but the Kentucky Derby is one race that has avoided him. Can Epicenter be the horse to break that curse?
Epicenter made his first two career starts at Churchill Downs, landing a maiden special weight at the second time of asking. His next four starts then came at Fair Grounds, winning three and unlucky not to have won the other. Most recently he’s cantered through a pair of Grade 2s, the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby (breaking the track record), gearing down well before the finish both times. His latest outing proved he didn’t need to be on the pace and he’s a major player.
Chad Brown will be more recognisable to most as being one of the best turf trainers in the US, but in Zandon he has a very realistic chance of adding the Derby to his honours list. This son of Upstart has improved on the speed figures with each start and doubled his career tally by adding the Grade 1 Blue Grass to his record last time, reversing form with Smile Happy. However, he needs to maintain his upward curve to reverse form with both Epicenter and Mo Donegal from previous meetings, though has a good draw and is likely to be produced late.
Who's the pick of the Pletcher team?
Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher saddles three, with Mo Donegal and Charge It both with a live chance. The former has won three of his five starts, with a pair of Grade 2 successes over 9f at Aqueduct, including when getting up late in the Wood Memorial beating Early Voting a neck last time. His form entitles him to be involved but the inside draw doesn’t make things easy for one who usually races with restraint.
Charge It, like Taiba, only began his career this season. Winning at the second time of asking in a maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park, he then finished 1¼ lengths second to White Abarrio in the Florida Derby at the same course at the beginning of last month. He showed signs of inexperience there when lugging in behind the winner, but it was still a cracking effort. He has been working well since and could run a big race if ironing out some of that greenness.
White Abarrio has won four of his five starts, all at Gulfstream Park. His sole defeat came when third at this track in the Kentucky Jockey Club as a juvenile (Smile Happy and Classic Causeway filling the first two places). He returned this year with a 4½ length success in the Grade 3 Holy Bull (form which reads really well) and followed up in the Florida Derby. The latter race wasn’t run in a quick time despite solid early fractions, and a step forward on the speed figures is required to win this.
A winner of two of his three starts in his native Japan, Crown Pride cannot totally be ignored given the purple patch that country is having with its horses in the wider world. His latest outing came when he was shipped to Dubai for the UAE Derby in which he beat the reopposing Summer Is Tomorrow by 2¾ lengths. A chunk of improvement will be needed to get involved, but would it really be a surprise if he was in the mix?
Who will win the Kentucky Derby?
To summarise, a really competitive renewal which could yet be compromised by a rather inclement weather forecast for Kentucky. That being said we can only go on the form we have in front of us and EPICENTER gets the verdict.
Steve Asmussen’s charge has created the best visual impression by barely coming off the bridle the last twice, his latest effort backed up by the clock. He’s currently fighting it out with Zandon at the head of the market but already has a couple of lengths in hand of that rival, who went on to win a Grade 1 last time, and he can confirm that superiority come Saturday in the biggest race of all.
Published at 2000 BST on 05/05/22
