Jumps season preview & tips: Class horses on dangerous handicap marks ahead of Cheltenham, Newbury & Haydock
Our expert highlights half a dozen experienced jumpers who have slipped to dangerous-looking handicap marks ahead of potential assignments in the near future.
The natural instinct in any handicap race - whether that's on the Flat or over obstacles; high-class or low-grade - is to look for the unexposed, younger legs that could be capable of showing a good deal more than we already know from a basic reading of the form book.
That's all well and good, and admittedly a decent source of winners to boot, but these horses are nearly always the ones that everyone is keen to latch onto, which obviously drives their odds south of where one might reasonably expect them to be based on the facts at hand.
Meanwhile, older, more exposed horses, who are higher in the weights but slipping down the ratings-scale at the same time, can consequently often be overlooked and while that's unlikely to be the case with a household name such as Frodon, who goes for back-to-back wins off the same mark (158) as last year in this weekend's Badger Beer Handicap Chase at Wincanton, here are half a dozen with big-race handicap entries to their name who are dangerously well treated and still look capable of holding their own against the emerging jumps talent this term.
Nube Negra (Trainer: Dan Skelton)
- Highest career BHA rating: 168 (chase)
- Highest winning BHA rating: NA
- Current BHA rating: 160 (chase)
- Big-race entries: Hurst Park Handicap Chase
There aren't many shrewder trainers around in Britain than Dan Skelton and I love the fact he's given the strong-travelling Nube Negra an entry in Ascot's Jim Barry Wines Hurst Park Handicap Chase at the end of the month, a race the trainer has twice come close to winning with Amoola Gold in the past.
Nube Negra hasn't exactly come crashing down the weights but he's only raced twice since easily landing odds of 1/10 in last year's Shloer Chase at Cheltenham's November meeting, and is now rated 5lb lower.
As high as 168 after beating Politologue in the 2021 Shloer, he can do plenty of damage off 160, while his record when fresh/first time out for the year is really strong.
It's not hard to see a fiercely-run handicap like this playing to his strengths and, if taking up the engagement on November 25, it'll be a long-awaited handicap chase debut for the nine-year-old.
Royale Pagaille (Venetia Williams)
- Highest career BHA rating: 166 (chase)
- Highest winning BHA rating: 163 (chase)
- Current BHA rating: 160 (chase)
- Big-race entries: Betfair Chase, Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase, Ladbrokes King George VI Chase
It's fair to say Royale Pagaille has had a truncated chasing career, largely down to injury setbacks and physical issues along the way, but he was still being campaigned at Grade 1 level last season before switching back to the handicap ranks for the Irish Grand National when last seen.
After attracting decent support at Fairyhouse (10/1), he encountered a pretty rough trip and eventually fell when still in midfield just after halfway.
He ran off an Irish mark of 160 that day and the BHA handicapper has left him alone on the same perch after he was entered in the Coral Gold Cup early next month (along with holding G1 options in the Betfair Chase and King George).
A dual Peter Marsh winner off 156 and 163, he's clearly suited to really testing ground on a left-handed circuit and although he may not get the former at Newbury, a comeback run there might tee him up beautifully for the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow over Christmas.
Brave Seasca (Venetia Williams)
- Highest career BHA rating: 155 (chase)
- Highest winning BHA rating: 146 (chase)
- Current BHA rating: 148 (chase)
- Big-race entries: Betway Haldon Gold Cup Handicap Chase
Another from the in-form yard of Venetia Williams and this one with a more pressing engagement, having been declared under Charlie Deutsch for Friday's Haldon Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Exeter.
Brave Seasca looked destined for big things at one point in the 2021-22 campaign, winning three handicaps on the bounce before not disgracing himself in the Kingmaker won by subsequent Arkle hero Edwardstone.
This horse ran in the Arkle too that season, while he made a winning start to the last campaign when defying a mark of 146 at Aintree in early-December, before the wheels seemed to come off completely.
He's back from a summer break following a breathing operation - Williams has a fantastic 26.42% strike-rate (14/53) with runners first time back after wind surgery - and gets in here off 148 which is clearly workable if able to rediscover anything close to his peak form.
He could be a bit of value to beat year-younger Solo, who is rated a stone higher than for the sole handicap win of his career so far.
Eldorado Allen (Joe Tizzard)
- Highest career BHA rating: 166 (chase)
- Highest winning BHA rating: NA
- Current BHA rating: 153 (chase); 154 for Coral Gold Cup
- Big-race entries: Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase
They've tried and tried again with Eldorado Allen, who just isn't a Grade 1 horse, but the 2022 Denman Chase (G2) winner has finally become well treated after a winless campaign last time around, and there were clear signs of encouragement in his comeback effort at Ascot last weekend.
The grey didn't go unbacked so perhaps the Tizzards hadn't left a huge amount to work on fitness-wise, but he did appear to get tired after three-out which was fair enough given how keen he'd been under Freddie Gingell early on.
The Ascot effort off 154 came just after the closing date for the Coral Gold Cup weights so he'll technically be 1lb 'wrong' compared to his future mark if heading to Newbury next, but he still looks a genuine 160 horse based on that latest performance and while his stamina for 3m2f isn't cast in stone, he clearly likes Newbury and handles most types of ground too.
Chantry House (Nicky Henderson)
- Highest career BHA rating: 162 (chase)
- Highest winning BHA rating: NA
- Current BHA rating: 147 (hurdle)
- Big-race entries: Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle, Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase
Chantry House also has an entry in the Coral Gold Cup but I'd be more interested if Nicky Henderson, JP McManus and co decide to aim him at the big staying handicap hurdle at Haydock on Betfair Chase day.
Not only is he rated 8lb lower over hurdles than fences at the moment, he's also completely unexposed as a hurdler having won two from three over the smaller obstacles in his youth, the sole defeat coming when third to stablemate Shishkin in the 2020 Sky Bet Supreme.
Chantry House went off 3/1 favourite for the 2021 King George before winning the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham the following month but he's had his issues since and failed to complete the course in three subsequent outings.
Not sighted since falling in the Rowland Meyrick last Boxing Day, the return to timber makes so much sense for the nine-year-old and, given the flimsy nature of the division in general at the moment, connections will surely be considering whether they could somehow nurture a Stayers' Hurdle campaign just like they did with Champ a couple of years ago.
Coeur Sublime (Henry De Bromhead)
- Highest career BHA rating: 155 (hurdle)
- Highest winning BHA rating: NA
- Current BHA rating: 147 (hurdle)
- Big-race entries: Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle
Plenty of punters will have given up on Coeur Sublime what probably seems like a long time ago, but full credit to trainer Henry De Bromhead and owner Chris Jones for keeping some sort of faith in the horse, who is remarkably still only eight years of age.
He's the top weight weight following the unveiling of the entries for this month's Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham and it's his only entry at the time of writing.
His most recent jumps form is patch, to say the least, and 'Dance Monkey' was enjoying an 11-week (!) spell at the top of the download charts when he last tasted success over hurdles, but he showed he still had fire in his belly with a neck second to Rebel Gold in a Grade 3 Chase back in February and has got his mojo back on the Flat in recent months.
Confidence should be high, despite just missing out to Helvic Dream in the Amateur Riders Derby at the Curragh last time, and a BHA hurdles mark of 147 is obviously pretty tempting before a likely return to fences at some point later in the season.
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