Saturday's guide to the ITV7 from Newbury, Newmarket and Market Rasen
Dave Smith takes a look at Saturday's ITV7 action from Newbury, Newmarket and Market Rasen with Fair Mountain his best bet of the day.
We start our Saturday ITV7 selections with a Listed contest over 7f at Newbury. Emotionless was looking set for a career at the very top in 2015 but he hasn't gone on from that and looks opposable in this contest. His last run in a Group 3 at Meydan would be a positive but another absence even tempers that and at 7/4 there may be more juice in the market elsewhere. Emirates Flyer was right up with the front three at Chelmsford City last time over the mile and this step up in trip should suit on that evidence. He was staying on at the finish but was just tapped for toe when entering the final furlong and ended up a never nearer fourth. A steadier pace should be more beneficial. DESERT ENCOUNTER's last run would have to be forgiven but that was a warmer contest than this and he's at least 1lb well in on all of his rivals here. His run in the Prince of Wales Stakes was very disappointing but there was at least one other noticeable disappointment in that race. He appeared to have no cover and looked to have missed the break as well as throwing his head around. This contest is a weaker one and at 9/2 he's good each-way value against the favourite. I would imagine that there is a good race in Fajjaj and despite the jockey booking it may not be here. The three-year-old allowance the horse receives could be helpful and despite a satisfactory showing in The Hampton Court at Ascot this may be bit too much at such a tender age.
The Summer Handicap Hurdle looks to be a fascinating punting puzzle to get stuck into. There are plenty of good horses in this and a few who have the potential to go on from the Listed Race to contest bigger prizes. FAIR MOUNTAIN should be a big player in here as he has won his last two contests with some ease yet isn't overly penalised for his opening mark. The Skelton team go from strength to strength and the continued progress of Harry is testament to their rapid rise to the upper echelons of the jumping game. John Constable won this off 150 last year but there's nothing off that mark in here. The pace is likely to come from one of the three course and distance winners in the race and that is L'Ingano Felice whose front running style could potentially be suited by this track. There's a long run in here and his stamina will be tested but he was useful on the flat and Ross Chapman's 3lb could be very useful. Cubswin may find this very tough and she's up 9lb for scoring against the fillies at Southwell but James Bowen continues to impress and she's definitely worth a check in the market. Hassle is another course and distance winner here but looks to be Richard Newland's second string in this contest with Sam Twiston-Davies taking the ride on Artful Artist. That shouldn't deflect from Hassle's chances and once again a claimer - in the form of Charlie Hammond - could just be pivotal in a race of this nature. Court Minstrel looks to be past his best but All Set to Go, whilst being inconsistent, could run well here and has the excellent Aidan Coleman on board.
The JLT Cup looks as competitive as ever and no fewer than 18 line up for this class 2 handicap. Stratum heads here as the favourite and after being stuck out wide in The Ascot Stakes it's possible he could have gone even closer had he not such a roundabout passage through. The horse is in excellent hands and it'd be no surprise to see him run very close here; at 9/2 he's a good each way price at this stage. Hochfeld ran well for a long way at Newmarket last time out but emptied fairly quickly and the feeling is he's not quite down to a winning mark. SIR CHAUVELIN is turned out again very quickly after running a creditable 10th in the John Smith's Cup last week but this won't be as competitive. The slow gallop in that race seemed to not be of any help as he was held up in last and ran on very well. A 1lb rise for that run seems a bit unfair but he was eased down when victory or place money looked impossible. He ran excellently behind Dash of Spice at Ascot reversing that form at York and was third in the Northumberland Plate. Almoghared is running here off a feather weight with the three-year-old allowance and his opening mark of 103 firmly puts him in the mix at 7/1. He has a top trainer looking after him but it may just be a big ask to beat his elders over this sort of distance. If you put a line through Amazing Red's run at Newcastle he would be a very dangerous animal. He just never got going at Gosforth Park but is one from one for Frankie Dettori who takes the ride again here but the question mark does remain that poor performance in the Northumberland Plate.
MELODIC NOTION should come here having stripped fitter for a return to racing at York last time. Ralph Beckett's mare is top rated in this contest where it was a warm race and none of that quality line up here. A previous course and distance winner there is much more juice in the price than the favourite Alwaysandforever who comes here after some facile victories in much lesser company. Effectively Melodic Motion is 7lb well in here on the favourite and that is not factored into the price. Highgarden would be a strong opposition to the selection and some excellent runs would be difficult to handle if reproduced here. Queen of Connaught is another course and distance winner but she may well have enough on her plate to win a race of this nature. Although Ejtyah ran well and won convincingly at Chelmsford this is much more competitive and the bare result of her runs at York and Epsom don't temper much enthusiasm, although it's likely Spencer will have her held up for a bold late bid.
This is a warm race and BACCHUS' excellent showing in the Wokingham has been somewhat underrated by all the talk of the defeat of the heavily gambled Dreamfield. If he repeats that run here then 6/1 could be a very juicy price. Based on her demolition of Foxtrot Lady at Doncaster when giving away 12lb to that rival Equilateral would be a very strong favourite here but he emptied out tamely the last day at Ascot and though this is less competitive there are question marks with that run in mind. Dream of Dreams cruised into contention two Saturdays ago at Sandown but the brisk pace of the 5f sprint and the excellent runs of Muthmir and winner Judicial proved too strong for Sir Michael Stoute's runner.
Paul Nicholls comes to the Lincolnshire track for the Handicap chase with two horses well found in the market. Alcala is only 1lb higher than last year's win and seems to have timed his return to form particularly well. Although Sam Twiston-Davies will leave the yard as stable jockey he will continue to ride for the previous champion trainer and he looks to be on a well handicapped individual here. What appears to be Nicholls' second string comes into this race having beaten the aforementioned Alcala in their last battle. Whilst Twiston-Davies has selected that horse it is BAGAD BIHOUE who gets the vote based on that run. He is a year younger than his stable mate and that gives him a little more scope for improvement. On the basis of that same clash Viconte Du Noyer may have a bit to find with the two Nicholls' runners but More Buck's might be open to improvement here. Too Many Diamonds runs off a feather weight for the Skelton team but his three recent wins have seen his rise 20lb in the weight though he may not be done just yet. Brian Boranha has only run 5 times over fences and has won two in much softer company than this. Aidan Coleman gets the ride here and that's a massive plus.
As ever the trickiest puzzle falls on the final leg of the ITV7. KINKS comes into this race with the best form on offer having run very creditably behind Vintage Brut in soft conditions at Sandown and then the American raider Shang Shang Shang in the Norfolk. Joe Fanning takes the ride off a low weight and he is a solid each-way selection at 6/1 with a few firms paying five places. Cookupastorm has also been given a good draw and at 16/1 looks a handy enough each way price. Buckingham has good all-weather form but needs to reproduce that on turf and Good Tyne Girl would have benefited with Paddy Mathers continuing on board but he overlooks the filly to take the ride on Society Queen.
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