Andrew Asquith steps in for Matt Brocklebank this weekend and has three selections at Newbury and Ripon.
Value Bet Tips: Saturday, August 15
1pt win Major Neigh Sayer in 13:55 Newbury at 10/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
1pt e.w. Dorney Lake in 14:55 Ripon at 16/1 (bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Witness Stand in 15:10 Newbury at 15/2 (General)
It may be that MAJOR NEIGH SAYER is ready for a step back up to six furlongs, but he’s really caught the eye on his last two starts over the minimum trip, and I think he’s got a big chance in the D&H, Excellence In Nutrition Handicap.
He made his return over a mile, but either needed the run badly or blatantly didn’t stay even though the stamina on the dam’s side of his pedigree suggests he should get a mile.
The decision to drop him markedly in trip to five furlongs at Sandown next time suggests that connections clearly think he takes more after his sire, and he travelled through that race like a horse who should be winning races from his current mark.
Major Neigh Sayer did remarkably well to finish as close as he did from the position he came from, ridden very patiently and having to weave his way through rivals before hitting the line strongly.
You could argue he would have won with more luck in running and a more prominent pitch. He again wasn’t seen to best effect in first-time cheekpieces at Musselburgh nine days later, once more travelling well but just not getting the breaks, and he again finished his race to good effect.
There is enough pace in this race to suggest he should get a good tow into proceedings, being drawn next to Regal Envoy who usually goes forward in his favour, and this more galloping track should also suit his run style.
Interestingly, he’s been gelded since last seen and freshened up, and I feel we are yet to see the best of him. Furthermore, P. J. McDonald, who was on board for Major Neigh Sayer’s sole win, is back in the saddle, and he is two from three when riding for George Scott this year (overall strike rate of 21%), so there’s plenty to like about his chance for me.
It is interesting that Andrew Balding has opted to run Never So Brave in the Visit Malta Hungerford Stakes instead of attempting to follow up his City of York Stakes win from last year next week (he may well back up quickly, who knows?), but it isn’t that much of a surprise given he hasn’t looked the same horse this season.
If he returns to his best, he’ll likely prove hard to beat, but there is a big question mark there. When looking through the race it’s clear to see there’s not much pace, which is unlikely to suit many of these, so with that in mind I think WITNESS STAND is overpriced.
He won a Listed event over this course and distance as a three-year-old and he finished runner-up to no other than More Thunder in this race 12 months ago on his only other visit to the track.
Things didn’t pan out for him in Dubai earlier in the year, but his form since returning to these shores following a breathing operation stacks up well, beaten just a head by subsequent Queen Anne winner Ten Bob Tony in a Group 3 at Epsom in June and, though he wasn’t at his best at Chester next time (had a wide trip), he bounced back to form in the Lennox Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last month.
He was going for a repeat win in the race having beaten Lake Forest 12 months ago, but he was unable to confirm that form. It briefly looked like he’d stolen a march on the remainder as he kicked clear around two furlongs out, but he was unable to maintain his effort and was caught close home by two who came from much further back.
It is possible he didn’t go hard enough that day given the time was around two seconds slower than when winning the previous year. It will be a shock if he doesn’t go to the front in this race and, given the majority of these like to take a lead, there’s every chance he could slip the field and not get pegged back this time.
I already have a position in the William Hill/MND Association Great St Wilfrid Handicap having put up Lord Roxby in my Weekend View column on Tuesday, but there is a bet to be had in the William Hill Supporting MND Silver Cup Handicap.
The horse in question is DORNEY LAKE, who has taken a while to come to hand since joining Liam Bailey, but he fell in the weights as a result, and he has now turned a corner, winning two of his last four starts.
He belatedly capitalised on a reduced mark at Doncaster last month, showing a nice turn of foot to take up the lead two furlongs out and always doing enough in the closing stages while the remainder closed.
His run at Pontefract next time wasn’t bad at all, caught a little wide and unable to reel in the all-the-way winner which can often be the case on fast ground over sprint trips at that track.
It is easy to ignore his run at York afterwards, drawn on the wrong side but he’s worth crediting for finishing second in his group which raced on the unfavoured stands’ side. Dorney Lake confirmed himself still in top form when winning with a bit in hand at Southwell last time, again settling the race between the two and one furlong pole and having more in hand than the three-quarter length margin suggests.
He was rated in the 90s in his pomp for Michael Bell, winning from a mark of 87 last year, so he remains with plenty of handicapping scope following a 4lb rise in the weights. I like his draw in stall 20 and there should be enough pace in the high numbers to give him a good position into the race, though it’s unlikely he’ll be too far away – his turn of foot and back class will continue to stand him in good stead at this level.
Preview posted at 16:00 BST on 14/08/2026
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