'It's a world title eliminator' | Our racing podcast team discuss Sir Gino v The New Lion

David Ord: We've got Sir Gino v The New Lion. How much are you looking forward to it and what are you expecting to learn?

Ben Linfoot: I can't wait. I hope, I mean, you always hope, don't you, that these things happen and I don't think anyone's going to blink. [Laughter from Cunningham]. It's unusual though, isn't it, that we have these clashes before March and... why, have you heard some rumblings, GC?

Graham Cunningham: No, no, but you just, you know, we've been here before with certain horses dropping out at the last minute. It would be a complete anti-climax if one of those horses had a slight sneeze or a stone bruise in the next 48 hours, wouldn't it?

Ben Linfoot: That's what I'm worried about. And then you read Nicky Henderson say, 'well, he doesn't need another run, he could go straight to the Festival'. Look, hopefully they both turn up because if they do, it's a hell of a clash. And it just shows you when this race was still run at the December meeting, it was really petering out and we had 145-rated horses banging heads with each other at the end of it. And they've moved it to January and had Lossiemouth win, Constitution Hill win and now hopefully we've got these two running.

It's going to sort something out, isn't it? Because obviously one's 5/4 for the Champion Hurdle, the other's 4/1. If these race on Saturday, that's not going to be the case. The market expects Sir Gino to be eight from eight on Saturday evening and you can absolutely see why, but The New Lion, he gets 3lb, I think this test is really going to suit him. It wouldn't surprise me if the JP horse won this.

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David Ord: Ed, how do you see it? There was a nice bit of spice from Harry Skelton earlier in the week on the NLD. He thinks Sir Gino's beatable, do you?

Ed Chamberlin: Yeah, there was a nice bit of spice with Sean Bowen at Windsor as well. Enjoyed that. Might have to ask Ruby Walsh about that this weekend. Yeah, I mean, gosh, if Sir Gino were mine, I probably would blink actually this weekend. It has not stopped raining here. I think it's going to be pretty testing on Saturday and that's my one worry. You know how much I love Sir Gino. You know the regard I hold him in. He's just different. He's just got that wow factor. And at the end of the day, if he runs on Saturday, hopefully Well Child will benefit from it as well, which means the world to me.

But it just concerns me. I think he'd kick The New Lion out of the way no problem on good to soft ground, I really do. The Fighting Fifth, who'd have won that day? I think probably The New Lion might have held on against Golden Ace, but I don't know. Then Sir Gino absolutely kicked her out of way at Kempton. I think two miles on good to soft ground, it would be all Sir Gino. It just worries me if it gets really testing on Saturday at Cheltenham becomes that stamina test that Scoop refers to. And you'll remember Sir Gino, the one try on soft ground was Aintree, wasn't it? He didn't jump well that day. So I'd just be worried about that on Saturday.

Graham Cunningham: I think he is a faster horse, Sir Gino, and I think this is what creates the tactical intrigue for the Skeltons because The New Lion's a proven stayer. He looked a terrific jumper last season, but they put him in front in the Fighting Fifth, and, I'm not knocking him on the jumping score, any horse can fall. And he did when the sprint kicked in, but he did have a good look around and almost ran out around about halfway as well. So on the one hand you know you've got to draw the sting out of a really fast horse and on the other you've got the memory of Newcastle where he didn't look quite as comfortable or smooth in front as you would have hoped.

David Ord: And Billy, where does Poniros slot in on Saturday?

Billy Nash: On ratings, a distant third already. On Timeform ratings, Sir Gino is 177p, The New Lion is 175p, they're the adjusted ratings. And you have to go all way down to 163 with Poniros. So Poniros is getting a pretty typical Willie Mullins five-year-old campaign in that he doesn't like to run his five-year-olds until after Christmas and then build them up gradually. I would imagine it's a kind of testing the water sort of a run from Poniros.

On the balance of his form he's probably not good enough to win a Champion Hurdle but they want to find out so they'll run him here and see how he gets on. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he goes back on the Flat later in the year in the summer, I could see him turning up in some of those big Flat handicaps before possibly kicking into a Champion Hurdle campaign next year. But I'd be surprised if he was good enough to beat either of the top two here.

Ed Chamberlin: You say testing the water, Billy. Do you think testing the water as well as to where Willie stands with his other Champion Hurdle candidates? A marker, if you like.

Billy Nash: Absolutely. He'll know where Poniros is in relation to Lossiemouth and Anzadam so definitely he'll want to have a proper look at Sir Gino and The New Lion I would imagine.

Graham Cunningham: We started this race talking about ducking things. If Lossiemouth ducks the Champion Hurdle this year, that is a low point Billy Nash, isn't it? And, you know, certain vibes suggest she might.

Billy Nash: Well, I would say what happens in the DRF will tell us. If she wins the Irish Champion Hurdle, I don't think they can duck the Champion if she wins it. If she gets beaten, which I don't expect her to, but if she gets beaten at Leopardstown, I think she will turn up in the Mares' Hurdle. But until she gets beaten, I think she will run in the Champion. And as things stand, I expect her to run in the Champion Hurdle.

David Ord: And Scoop just fleetingly returning to a point GC made about the tactics on Saturday, given how awkward The New Lion looked in front at Newcastle, how Sir Gino can take a tanking hold through the early stages. Are you surprised that neither of them have got a stablemate in there to help them out through the first half mile or so?

Ben Linfoot: Yeah, a little bit. It does look like it could be tactical in that regard. There's no natural front runner at all in the race from the five that might turn up. So that has to be on your mind. And you think of that New Course as well, the hurdles course, there's an awful long way in between the third last and the last flight. There's one hurdle jumped in about half a mile or something. It's a crazy amount of ground they have to run over jumping very few hurdles. So it's fascinating in that regard. That's going to be a really crucial point in the race, isn't it? On the turn for home, just before the last, and that's where it's going to be won and lost, I feel.

Graham Cunningham: Whatever wins this race on Saturday, if the winner is decisive, is going to be a very, very short price for the Champion Hurdle because we clearly have some negatrons about whether Lossiemouth will be in the field. Constitution Hill is going to Friday Night Lights. Brighterdaysahead, 12 to 1, Cheltenham form is sketchy. Then we have Golden Ace. So it's looking like a bit of an eliminator for the world title, isn't it?

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